On Wednesday Joseph Made, Minister of Lands and Agriculture, issued a statement asking all commercial farmers to sell the few remaining assets they possess on moral grounds. It seems the hypocrisy of the ZANU(PF) government knows no bounds. There is very little that the government has done over the last few years that could be interpreted as being in any way moral. They have stolen elections, embarked on a systematic and unconstitutional process of land theft, and have been party to the breakdown of the rule of law across the country. State agents have been extensively implicated in human rights abuse and torture, giving Zimbabwe one of the worst human rights records in the world, and at the same time the government has failed completely to tackle the issue of AIDS education and prevention, in a nation that is facing the death of over a third of its population through the virulent disease in the next couple of decades. And finally, the actions of the government are largely responsible for the current famine in the country through the "fast track" resettlement programme. Are we reasonably expected to believe in the moral authority of a government whose own former speaker for parliament, Didymus Mutasa, said: "We would be better off with only six million people, with our own people who support the liberation struggle. We don't want all these extra people"?

So where do we stand at the beginning of 2003? The critical grain shortage that has already resulted in deaths through starvation in certain remote areas is not likely to end any time soon, due to the failed tillage of the commercial farmland. It is true that historically 50 to 60% of the grain came from rural areas (less in drought periods such as now), but this production is not likely to achieve the necessary levels in the current crisis. Shortage of seed due to the occupation of seed-producing farms, fertilizer shortage due to improper fund management from the government, and late tilling as a result of the diversion of DDF infrastructure will all heavily impact rural production. Furthermore, the predicted early end to the rains, combined with late planting (less than forty percent of cops were in the ground by the critical date of the second week of November), may well spell disaster for these crops. It seems ridiculous that the Made believes mechanization will help the situation, when there is a shortage of basics such as seed and fertilizer.

The small winter wheat harvest is likely to be finished by the end of February, since although the government claims to have imported the usual quota, the demand for bread at the moment is peaking due to the shortage of maize meal. Likewise a large amount of horticultural market production has been shut down and production curtailed, which means that once the rainy season is over, many vegetables will become unavailable. Some irrigation can still be carried out, and since the state has declared all resettled land as State Land, the water rights even on small farm dams are controlled entirely by the state. Consequently, it is reasonable to assume that the responsibility for utilization of such water reserves falls upon the state.

The livestock industry has also been heavily impacted by the land reform progress. The commercial cattle herd has been hugely culled due to the diminishing of grazing area, dropping from some 1,2 million head in 1999 to well below 200 000 today (estimates from the Cattle Producers Association). Normally, ten percent of the commercial herd is made available for market, whilst only one percent of the rural herd (which is kept as status symbols and wealth investment rater than as a commodity) is butchered. In 2002, some thousands of tonnes of beef was shipped to Libya as part of the bilateral trade agreement for fuel and foreign currency. However, this means that the commercial herd this year is decidedly decreased--the CPA estimate that only 130 000 cows will be bulled this year. Since the majority of the females must be kept for restocking purposes, that leaves only 65 000 steers for the market.

Sam Cawood (75) used to run the largest pedigree Brahman herd in the country. In October, settlers locked up calving cows in pens and refused to allow them food or water. They only allowed the cattle out to go for slaughter, and Cawood had no option but to order the new season's calves to be killed as well. Cawood was then arrested into custody for `stoning the animals', although these charges were later dropped.

The Cawoods have been left with 150 cattle which they have had to pen in Bulawayo, since all of the farms in the Bubi area have been invaded by settler's cattle. Poaching has killed off most of the game and what was once prime productive farmland has now become overgrazed and overcrowded, leading to massive environmental degradation. Most of the water points in the area have not been maintained, and settlers are left congregating around existing water pumps. Settlers desperate for grazing for their starving animals have now effectively stopped commercial cattle production, grazing in these areas is almost exhausted, and disaster is imminent. Already extensive cattle deaths have been observed in the southern regions of Zimbabwe, where rainfall is well below normal. Furthermore, the unregulated influx of these cattle has led to outbreaks of foot and mouth disease, anthrax and tick-borne diseases, further accelerating the deaths.

Apart from the shortages of meat, grain and vegetables, milk is already hard to find. The dairy production in Zimbabwe has crumbled completely. Last week, a farm with over 1000 milking cattle which produced 40% of Harare's milk was closed down, and the farmer is under threat of eviction. With the rocketing costs of stockfeed, coupled with the fixed price of milk, farmers cannot continue dairy farming in any case. Zimbabwe may not have sufficient milk for years to come, and will be relegated to the state of Mozambique, which imports all its dairy products from South Africa. The impact of stockfeeding prices and farm closures has similarly hit the pig production--the recent glut of pork in the market is a direct result of farm evictions, but other than that, there is likely to be a shortage of pork this year.

It is hard to imagine what exactly the government is planning for people to eat this coming year, with the engineered shortages of almost every product. Price regulation is supposedly a measure to ensure that produce stays affordable to the man in the street, but as any economist will tell you, it does this at the cost of the producers. When the cost of production is greater than the potential earnings, nobody can afford to sell, and will turn to exporting instead. Of course, this would benefit the country in terms of foreign currency earnings, but would do little for the majority of the population, who will merely experience further shortages. And the foreign currency earnings will be eaten away steadily by the increased imports required to meet those areas of agricultural production that have been destroyed, ignored, or diverted into cash crop production (such as tobacco).

It is hard to believe that a government that has achieved so much destruction and national trauma in such a short time feels itself able to appeal to the moral nature of anyone (although, we note, not without accusing the farmers of engineering thefts of their own produce and belongings, and coordinating their own assaults in order to give the war veterans a bad name!) In reality, many farmers are forced to sell their equipment where they can find someone who is able to pay for it. However, considering the losses that the agricultural community has already suffered (including theft of equipment and moveable assets), it is ridiculous to assume or ask those same people to sell for anything less than the absolute worth of the equipment. The only body likely to possess the money to buy such equipment in bulk is the government itself, and nobody has any faith in their intention or ability to pay anything, considering the paltry number of farmers who have received any sort of compensation for the improvements on farms that the government undertook to pay at the outset. Furthermore, the expertise to operate this equipment does not in general exist outside of commercial farmers and farm workers (who have been largely excluded from the resettlement process). Many center pivot and sprinkler irrigation schemes and tractors now lie idle after having been abused, vandalized, or just driven into the ground--valuable equipment that could well have been used to dig Zimbabwe out of its agricultural pit.

Minister Made, having been one of the prime instruments of the destruction of ARDA and now commercial agriculture in Zimbabwe, is now searching for someone else to blame for the situation, and as usual has picked on everyone's favourite demons--the commercial farmers.