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Bush is Skating on Thin Ice

by alan Caruba

February 9, 2004

I rarely address political issues, as readers of my commentaries will attest, but it has become impossible to ignore the direction that President Bush has taken the Republican Party and the rest of the nation. We are mired in growing debt and it will only take another attack on the U.S. to plunge us back to the uncertainty and impact on the economy that occurred after 9/11.

I don’t profess to understand anything going on in the White House, but it doesn’t take a political analyst to conclude that Bush believes his conservative base of support is solid and that he can neutralize the Democrat left by signing off on liberal programs such as "No Child Left Behind" and his proposal to add to the staggering numbers of illegal aliens filling america’s cities and towns. He is not going to get Democrat votes and his Republican base is disintegrating as this is being written.

Thanks to C-Span, I had a front row seat to hear some of the speakers at the recent winter meeting of the Republican National Committee. The audience was a sea of white, prosperous faces. One of the speakers was Gov. Haley Barbour, former RNC Chairman from 1993-1997. "This is going to be a close election," he said. and then he repeated it.

I have friends who are both to the far Left and the far Right. Those on the far Right are agonizing among themselves over George Walker Bush. Some are arguing that any Democrat candidate would be a disaster for america at this time and, therefore, Bush must be supported, but just as many are arguing that he must be abandoned because his bizarre domestic policies can do nothing but harm the economy and the nation.

Those on the far Left argue his tax-cutting, combined with spending programs like expanding Medicare to include coverage of drug purchase benefits, are financially imprudent. Both Republicans and Democrats are correct. When they meet in the middle, the likelihood is that they will vote for anybody but Bush.

My view is that Bush has calculated that fear of another 9/11 is sufficient in itself to get re-elected. I believe he is wrong.

Here’s a tiny bit of history that too many either don’t know or would prefer to ignore. Every president since World War II who committed U.S. troops to massive military interventions overseas in undeclared wars was denied a second term. Harry Truman and Lyndon B. Johnson declined to run again. George Herbert Walker Bush was defeated. I can recall how popular Bush41 was right after the Gulf War. Bush43’s popularity is slipping with some polls already suggesting he can be defeated.

Polls consistently demonstrate that most americans are worried about the economy and health as major issues. They blame Bush for the loss of jobs that are being transferred overseas, even though the President has no control of such decisions. They can, though, expect that he will provide some relief to small and midsized businesses who are struggling to survive the downturn of the economy after 9/11; one that continues for many of them today.

They blame Bush, too, for having "misled" them into a war with Iraq when it has become clear that his justification was based on a huge failure of intelligence gathering, just as 9/11 was. as the months ahead unfold with unknown events in Iraq, the failure to restore any form of sovereignty, even including an Islamic government, will be seen as a misjudgment in the use of force. I have argued that the U.S. had to project force in the Middle East to stem the tide of Islamic fanaticism driving the worldwide Jihad, but should the White House be seen to too hastily turn over rule to a deeply divided Iraq or to the United Nations, that folly will be obvious to everyone, everywhere.

I do not know anybody who is not increasingly deep in debt. They range from young couples with new babies and new homes, to older citizens like myself who have found their property taxes doubled to pay for failing educational systems and the way States increased their borrowing and spending during the 90s. Bankruptcies are increasing, once thriving businesses are experiencing cutbacks and loss of revenue that force layoffs. Men and women with excellent professional and managerial skills are faced with costly decisions just to keep their jobs or secure new ones.

The undercurrent of discontent is palpable throughout the nation and it was this discontent that Gov. Howard Dean tapped into initially. It is this discontent that is now being stirred by other Democrat candidates. Something is terribly wrong in Washington, DC they say and they are right.

The Republican Party is at a crossroads. They are pledged to support the President, but they have demonstrated that control of Congress has not differentiated them from Democrats in any demonstrable way. Haley Barbour warned the RNC they have to be for something. Right now they have demonstrated they are for liberal Democrat programs!

The heady days of the Reagan revolution are over. The Gingrich-led takeover of Congress with its "Contract with america" is a pale memory. Congress and the nation are sharply divided and, if the White House does not begin to show some humility and demonstrate something more than promises of better times to come, the November elections are going to come as a terrible shock and loss to them.

Right now, I am in the camp of those who fear the Islamic Jihad more than any domestic issue, but I am also in the camp of those who detest the President’s education, immigration, and economic policies. Many other Republicans are beginning to openly criticize these policies and, if there is a critical mass of them by November, many will stay home rather than vote.

By how many votes did Bush win Florida the last time? Not many.