by Klaus Rohrich
December 6, 2004
Last week, while visiting Canada, George Bush quoted the words of William Lyon Mackenzie King, Canada’s Prime Minister during World War II. "You do not defend our country and save our homes and family by waiting for the enemy to attack us. To remain on the defensive is the surest way to bring the war to Canada." Whatever his other faults were, Mackenzie King understood that a good offense made for the best defense.
Iran is currently being accused by the world (including that most multilateral of multilateral bodies, the UN) of being engaged in the development of nuclear weapons. While Iran has steadfastly denied doing so, there is little reason to believe the Mullahs’ explanation that the nuclear program is solely for the generation of electricity. after all, Iran is one of the world’s leading producers of oil and gas, with more than enough resources to provide for that country’s needs for centuries. So why would they engage in the risky and expensive development of nuclear generating? Given the fact that Iran uses Hezbollah as an adjunct to its foreign policy and a method of projecting its policies into the Middle East, while steadfastly denying its support for Hezbollah gives little reason to believe anything the Mullahs say.
Interestingly, the November 29th issue of aviation Week & Space Technology claims that Iran’s planned launch of a satellite in early 2005 could be a method of testing ballistic missile delivery systems capable of carrying nuclear warheads. "It would move the Iranians from the junior varsity into the big leagues," an analyst told the magazine. The Shahab-3 is Iran’s largest ballistic missile and could be used as a delivery platform for small to medium nuclear warheads.
During the Clinton administration, North Korea became a member of the world nuclear club, a development that caught western intelligence agencies off guard. North Korea’s launch of a ballistic missile signaled the world that it was capable of delivering nuclear tipped warheads almost anywhere in the world.
There is little reason to be hopeful about Iran’s intentions with respect to nuclear weapons technology. Since the 1970s, when Iran became an Islamic theocracy, the country’s leaders have been less than friendly toward the West. Iran has sponsored suicide bombings in Israel that have taken a heavy toll on civilian life. Chances are that with nuclear weapons at their disposal, Iran will see them as "the final solution" in dealing with Israel once and for all. In addition, if Iran is capable of delivering nuclear warheads to North america, there is little doubt that the Mullahs would not hesitate to use them, as the idea of massive retaliation by the West does not appear to concern them.
The West’s best chance of containing Iran and its Islamist fundamentalist crusade against Israel and the West is to support the movement inside Iran clamouring for change. To be sure there is widespread support for revolutionary change inside Iran, as has been shown by the massive demonstrations that have been held in support of liberalization. additionally, the Mullahs appear to be getting more desperate, as they have recently enacted draconian laws designed to still the voices of dissent.
The stage is set to affect change in Iran with relatively little damage to that country’s population or infrastructure. Once the Mullahs are in possession of nuclear weapons and a ballistic delivery platform, the game will escalate to a new level. at that point dealing with Iran will be much more expensive than all of 9/11, afghanistan and Iraq combined.