By Justice for agriculture
June 28, 2004
From The Zimbabwe Standard, 20 June
Zimbabwe will experience severe shortages of bread next year following late invitations to new farmers to venture into wheat production. The invitations came almost a month after the lapse of the deadline for planting the crop, Standard Business has established. The government last week frantically courted new farmers at the eleventh hour to take up production of the crop after it became clear that there was very little planting activity taking place. Wheat is normally planted up to May 15 and is harvested in September just before the onset of the rains. However, after realizing that very few farmers were planting the crop, the government sent an SOS message to the newly resettled farmers to take up the challenge and hurriedly plant the crop.
"In its endeavour to boost the production of wheat in 2004, the government has undertaken to support the targeted production of 100,000 hectares of wheat. Those who intend to grow wheat and have not been registered with arex are encouraged to approach their nearest arex officers." added the statement, issued by the Ministry of Lands and agriculture: "Wheat can be planted from May until about mid-June, but obviously the late planted crop might coincide with the early summer rains thereby making it difficult to harvest the crop."
Last year, early October rains had a devastating effect on the winter crop as it failed to mature properly and some of the crop was declared unsuitable for human consumption. Out of a normal requirement of 350,000 tonnes per annum only 60,000 tonnes was harvested in 2003/04 down from 80,000 in 2002/3. Many farmers failed to plant this year's crop in time because of the late harvesting of the maize crop. Other a1 and a2 farmers who took up productive farmland formerly owned by white commercial farmers during the violent farm seizures failed to access funding and inputs in time. They complain that many financial institutions insist on collateral security before lending any money to the farmers who don't hold any title deeds to the land. John Nkomo, the Minister for Special affairs Responsible for Lands, Lands Reform and Resettlement, recently told a Cabinet meeting that only 33,000 hectares of wheat had been planted so far against a targeted 100,000 hectares.
agricultural experts say due to late land preparation and planting, this year's wheat harvest could be the smallest since independence in 1980. "The crop will miss the winter temperature to mature properly because the optimum growing conditions are now and not October," said Renson Gasela, the opposition MDC shadow minister for agriculture.
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PR COMMUNIQUÉ NO. 2:
From The Financial Mail (Sa), 18 June
Grains of untruth
Official crop forecast, newspaper banning and land nationalisation dent government credibility President Robert Mugabe's government complains frequently about the bad press it is getting internationally, but in the past few weeks it has only itself to blame. The official claim that the country will have a grain harvest of 2.4 Mt this year (the national consumption requirement), has been dismissed as a gross exaggeration by all independent observers, especially the UN Food & agriculture Organisation (FaO), which says production will be lower than last year's 900 000 t. This has further harmed government's credibility, as has the banning — on technical grounds - by the state media and information commission of a (broadly sympathetic) independent newspaper, The Tribune. Government then shot itself in the foot when land reform minister John Nkomo announced plans to nationalize all "productive land".
The use of the word nationalization and the statement that "all land will be state land and there will be no such thing called private land" set alarm bells ringing in Zimbabwe and abroad. Did Nkomo mean that industrial or mining land would be treated similarly, and how would government tackle the highly sensitive issue of communally owned land? Foreign and domestic investment, minimal though it is, will take another knock as a result, while the sharp, public criticism of Nkomo by a junior ministerial colleague, the powerful information minister, Jonathan Moyo, was yet more evidence of just how intense infighting within Zanu PF has become. Cooler heads are pleading for calm, pointing out that land nationalization requires a two-thirds majority in parliament, which government does not have, but is almost certain to get in next March's parliamentary elections.
agricultural experts say the decision to replace private ownership with 99-year leases is not objectionable in itself, though the plan to give conservancies only 25-year leases has been roundly criticized as impractical. Replacing title deeds with 99-year leases will be a lengthy and extremely complicated business, especially in the communal areas, and one that cannot legally begin until the constitution is amended, which is at least a year away.
Meanwhile, Zimbabwe has many more immediate problems. Though Reserve Bank (RBZ) Governor Gideon Gono is well pleased with the fall in inflation from a peak of 622% in January to 448% last month, he must be unhappy at the widening gap between demand and supply at the foreign currency auction. In the past four auctions the amount offered by the RBZ has averaged US$8.5m, but demand has averaged $16m. Despite this, the authorities have effectively pegged the exchange rate at about Z$5 340 to the US dollar, thereby demonstrating that the twice-weekly sale of foreign currency is certainly not an auction. Instead, the auction is being used as a backdoor means to control both imports and prices, as a result of which the exchange rate is undermining exports. after adjustment for inflation, exporters are about 36% worse off than they were a year ago, which is why Gono is under mounting pressure to let the rate slide or to provide new incentives and subsidies for exporters, especially in the small-scale tobacco sector.
The foreign currency position is precarious - made more so by the claim that government is spending $200m on the acquisition of 12 fighter jets and 100 military vehicles from China. Opposition defence spokesman Giles Mutsekwa says the parliamentary committee on defence only learnt about the deal during a recent review of the defence ministry's quarterly budget. Pressure on both the exchange rate and inflation will intensify in the final months of 2004 if the independent experts are right and Zimbabwe needs to import between 500 000 t and 900 000 t of maize and another 250,000 t of wheat. Government's claim that there is a huge harvest has been undermined by its withdrawal from a joint crop survey with the UN, as well as by numerous media reports in Zimbabwe, the US and Sa that the country has ordered - and is importing - maize from Sa, argentina and even Zambia.
FaO and non-governmental organization Fewsnet have both promised to clarify the grain situation later this month. Meanwhile, the consensus view is that the harvest will be larger than last year's 900,000 t, but way below the official projection of 2,4 Mt. Some analysts expect a harvest of 1.25 Mt, which would leave a 600,000 t shortfall for current consumption and another 500,000 t to rebuild the strategic reserve. If grain imports are necessary, Gono's chances of holding the exchange rate and inflation will be dented.
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