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Kyoto, greenhouse gas

Global warming through the crystal ball

by Judi McLeod

January 18, 2005

With the world looking at the wake of South asia's devastating tsunamis, Canadian geographers are looking at warmer summers they claim are headed our way--50 years from now.

a new study published by Dan Scott, a University of Waterloo geographer, says even the most cautious projections indicate that climate change will bring a major boost for tourism in the Land of the Maple Leaf.

The boost could even erase Canada's $1.7 billion international tourism deficit, largely created by people fleeing long Canadian winters.

"If we're slightly above zero in average temperatures for half the winter, then I'm not out of here to someplace south," Scott, who holds the Canada Research Chair in Global Change and Tourism," told the Toronto Star.

The global changes of half a century away are slated to create perfect conditions. Not only would Canada's "snowbird" population melt away like a summer afternoon's ice cream cone, sweltering hot summers south of the border would drive more american "sunbirds" over the Canadian border in search of our relatively cooler and less humid conditions.

according to some geographers, global warming can cure anything, and even melt away the frosty anti-americanism that thrives in socialist dominated Canada.

The local weatherman might often be off the mark. But Scott used technology, basing his analysis on computer-projected changes in seven climate variables important to tourists–maximum and average daily temperatures, minimum and average daily humidity, precipitation, sunshine and winds–combined into overall rating.

Under a more extreme climate change scenario for 2050, only two U.S. cities had "desirable tourism climates" in July, while 17 Canadian cities still rated ideal or excellent. By 2080, however that number dropped to nine as Toronto, Montreal and Ottawa all became too hot and muggy for comfort with average temperatures as much as 9C higher.

Big benefits will also be headed Canada's way by virtue of stretching out the summer tourism season, as the "very good" climate line for april is pushed 1,200 kilometers north across a large swath in central North america. at that time, the tourism climate in May and June becomes reliably welcoming across most of the country.

Guess some geographers have never read Fight Kyoto author Ezra Levant's explanation of global warming.

"Using computers to predict the future is simply a high-tech veneer over the plain fact that climate modeling is sheer guesswork," Levant wrote.

"Dr. Vincent Gray, one of the expert reviewers on the UN's IPCC climate science panel, points out that no UN climate model has ever successfully predicted any climate sequence. How could a model possibly predict the climate one year–or one hundred years–into the future, if it cannot predict tomorrow?

"Future forecasts presented by the IPCC are nothing but informed, but heavily biased guesses, processed by untested models. The forecasts are therefore easily manipulated to comply with current political expectations or demands."
Yet Scott insists that his study provides an economic perspective for governments dealing with climate change.

The predicted warmer summers coming our way 50 years from now are not the worry of the masses. It's the estimated more than $1 billion cost of meeting Kyoto greenhouse gas targets creating sleepless nights.


Canada Free Press founding editor Most recent by Judi McLeod is an award-winning journalist with 30 years experience in the print media. Her work has appeared on Newsmax.com, Drudge Report, Foxnews.com, Glenn Beck. Judi can be reached at: judi@canadafreepress.com


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