By David Dastych
Thursday, July 20, 2006
Iran and Syria, in a mutual agreement, gave a "green light" to a crush-Israel trial run war wedged from Lebanon and the Pa. Both regimes pledged to cooperate in putting pressure on Israel, in order to reverse the balance of power in Palestine, and not only there.
"Palestine" is only a geographical name; its political meaning is mainly Israel (58 years old) and the much younger Palestinian National autonomy, an arab quasi-state consisting of the West Bank and Gaza.
Some thirty years ago, I asked a PLO representative in Poland, Mr. Yassin, why the map-contour on the Palestinian flag is identical with the borders of Israel and the then occupied arab territories. He told me it was a symbol of their struggle for the liberation of Palestine. "Then, what to do with Israel?" — I asked. "It's a question for the future" — diplomatically replied Mr. Yassin. Some time later, in a newly formed Palestinian "Embassy" in Warsaw, I listened to the late PLO military leader, abu Jihad (Khalid al-Wazir), making a speech to Palestinian students. It was at the time of the fierce war in Lebanon and the Israeli military intervention, in 1982. abu Jihad recruited students for the war, they responded shouting out: "Push the Jews to the Sea!".
abu Jihad's early background was the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, which is now continued by Hamas. He was killed by an Israeli hit commando on april 16, 1988 during the first Intifada (Palestinian uprising,1987-1991). Since its beginning, Israel survived three wars against arab states (1948, 1967 and 1973) and many confrontations with Palestinian and other terrorists. In 1982, following the invasion of Lebanon, Yaser arafat and his militants were "pushed to the sea" and exiled on ships from Lebanon to Tunisia. They came back in the 1990's, after the Oslo Peace agreements (1993), and (in 1996) Yaser arafat became the first President of the Palestinian National autonomy (until his death on November 11, 2004).
The Pa was supposed to become the backbone of a future Palestinian arab State, neighboring with Israel in peace. Yet, the dream of "pushing the Jews into the Sea" never ceased. The second Intifada (called al aqsa) began in September of 2000 and it never ended until today. In January of 2006, the election victory of Hamas (Islamic Resistance Movement), a radical Palestinian continuation of the Muslim Brotherhood, revived the "crush-Israel" day-dreams in the Palestinian society.
Hamas is a Sunni militant organization, founded in 1987 by Sheikh ahmed Yassin of the Gaza wing of the Muslim Brotherhood, known chiefly for its suicide bombings and other attacks directed against Israeli civilians, as well as military and security forces targets. Hamas' charter (written in 1988 and still in force) calls for the destruction of the State of Israel and its replacement with a Palestinian Islamic state in the area that is now Israel, the West Bank, and the Gaza Strip. [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hamas]
Hezbollah is militant Lebanese Shia Islamic group, with a military arm and a civilian arm, founded in 1982 to fight the Israeli Defense Forces who occupied southern Lebanon until the year 2000. Its leader is Hassan Nasrallah. Hezbollah was "inspired by the success of the Iranian Revolution" and was formed primarily to wage war against Israel. Its political platform has consistently called for the destruction of Israel. [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah]
Hamas and Hezbollah, though of different religious affiliations (Sunni and Shia), began to cooperate in the fight against Israel, supported by Syria and Iran. after the last war in Iraq (2003) and the crushing of the Saddam Hussein regime by the U.S.-led Coalition, Iran and Syria gradually came close to form an "axis" against Israel, the United States and their allies. The Shia religious regime of Iran is emerging as a next regional state-power, probably a nuclear-armed power. The Sunni Ba'athist regime of Syria is not a religious state organization, but it takes into its strategic consideration the significance of the Islamic zeal for its political and military goals. Syria is the main arab state, neighboring with Israel and extending its influence upon Lebanon. Situated between Israel and the U.S.-dominated Iraq, Syria feels safer with the backing of Iran.
But both regimes are not eager to confront Israel and the U.S. by direct military actions. Iran focuses its attention on the internal build-up and on seeking a nuclear-power status, and also on a predominantly Shiite Iraq. The assad regime in Syria wants to survive and strengthen its influence in the region. That's why their present confrontation with Israel is mostly verbal, and their reactions to the present Israeli military operations in Lebanon are rather cautious. On the other hand, Iran wants to divert the attention from the confrontation with the West over the nuclear issue.
Therefore, both regimes led by their presidents ahmadinejad and assad, decided to wage the war against Israel by proxies. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards were supplying thousands of missiles and other weapons to Lebanese Hezbollah, creating a more favorable balance of power between this organization and Israel. The claims of a "revolutionary" turnabout of the strategic balance, voiced by some Iranian media [ Kayhan: Hezbollah Can Destroy 'at Least 1 Million Zionists in Just 12 Hours'; Mehr New agency: 'Iran Official Says Conditions Will Change To Hizballahs advantage', Monday, July 17] are certainly exaggerated. But a close military cooperation of Hezbollah and Hamas worries the Israeli government and public opinion. The IDF responded to this threat by massive military operations, aimed at Hamas' in Gaza and at Hezbollah in Lebanon.
How much the missile potential garnered by Hezbollah and Hamas could change the military situation around Israel?
I don't believe that swarms of missiles can make a definitive breakthrough in favor of the Palestinian and other radicals. Even 16,000 Katyushas [range 25 km] and dozens of Iranian-made Fajr-5 and Zelzal-2 missiles [ranges from 40 — 270 km] cannot defeat the IDF and — as some Iranian sources claim — " make refugees of one million of the Israeli Jews".
In one of his very timely and accurate "Galil Reports", aaron Klein - a WorldNetDaily Israeli correspondent - published an interview with a "rocket chief" in the West Bank: abu Oudai, chief rocket coordinator for the al aqsa Martyrs Brigades in Judea and Samaria. That man claims his organization has got missiles and also can produce more of them in the West Bank. Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and the West Bank coordinate their rocket attacks on Israel. The ultimate goal is to threaten the whole Israeli territory and its population from three sides: Lebanon in the North, Gaza and the West Bank in the center. Several sources, in Israel and beyond, reported that the terrorists want to arm some of their missile warheads with primitive WMDs: chemical and nuclear.
In spite of all these efforts, war by proxies against Israel will end as all previous wars: by a complete defeat of the aggressors. The IDF is continuing its operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, with two major aims: (1) to destroy as much as possible of the missile stockpiles of Hezbollah and their military infrastructure, to kill its leaders (who hide in deep underground bunkers near the Syrian-Lebanese frontier), and (2) to create a buffer zone in North Lebanon to protect the population in the Israel's North. But these operations can be easily extended to both Gaza and the West Bank, and that means a complete destruction of the military potential of all Palestinian militant groups there.
a war by proxies against Israel should be stopped, and the military support to Hezbollah and Hamas from Iran and Syria should be halted. Israel is not to be "crushed", but the backlash of the terrorist operations could hit both Iran and Syria.