By Times Now,
Sunday, October 1, 2006
'I don't know where Osama is. Do you?' Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf on america's 'Daily Show'.
General Pervez Musharraf does appear to have a short term memory - a day after feigning ignorance on the whereabouts of al-Qaeda chief Osama Bin Laden to 'Daily Show' host Jon Stewart, he tells the Times of London, exactly where President Bush can hope to find the elusive terror master mind:
"It's not a hunch. We know there are some pockets of al-Qaeda in Bajaur agency. We have set a good intelligence organisation. We have moved some army elements. We did strike them twice there. We located and killed a number of them."
So is Musharraf plugging his memoirs? Or are his revelations aimed at afghan President Hamid Karzai, a man who has accused the Pakistani general of sheltering the Taliban and al-Qaeda? We put that question to Hamid Mir, an authority of Osama Bin Laden and a journalist who has met Laden three times.
Mir dismissed Pervez Musharraf's claim. Drawing attention to the fact that the Pakistani President's comments to the Times, a London daily, come after what the american press have called a 'contentious meeting' with the afghan President Karzai at the White house on Wednesday, Mir suggested that President Musharraf was merely trying to get back at afghanistan President Hamid Karzai.
"Like George Bush and Hamid Karzai, Musharraf does not have any exact information about the location of Osama Bin Laden" said Mir, adding that the reason the general had made such a comment could perhaps be because "he is trying to taunt Mr Hamid Karzai -- President Karzai has claimed many times that Bin Laden in hiding in Pakistan".
With reference to Musharraf's claim that Osama was hiding in aghanistan's Kunar province, Mir said such information could not be ignored by serious analysts, coming from a head of state such as Musharraf. However, Mir expressed skepticism that the general could so easily have made public, facts about Osama's location -- were they indeed true.
"It is like providing an alert to Bin Laden that 'we have come to know you are hiding in Kumar', which would prompt him to change his position" said Mir.
Whatever Musharraf's motivations, he might just be on to something, however - reports of Osama Bin Laden sightings have come from areas adjoining the afghanistan-Pakistan border regions. This is an area that includes the provinces of Khost, Waziristan, Paktika and the Kunar province.
The Bajaur agency, where Musharraf insists Osama is hiding at present, is very close to the above four provinces. If Osama is holed up with the afghan war lord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, it will be very difficult to get to him. The ravines provide for safe havens and easy escape routes that go undetected even under the gaze of spy satellites.
at present, the US and its allies can only rely on a video trail - from 2001 to 2004, a number of videos have been released by the al-Qaeda showing Osama Bin Laden at different points in time talking of different events. These at most, provide an inaccurate picture of the man and his whereabouts.
The speculation over Osama's whereabouts hit fever pitch after a French Journalist Lad Sammari said last week that Osama had died. He said that he had acquired French Intelligence top secret reports that claimed as much.
Sammari writing in a French newspaper said:
"I think we can't contest that these documents of the DGSE (French foreign intelligence service), which are classified "defence confidential" are authentic. It's dated from September 21 and it's so authentic that the French president announced today that he must open an investigation to discover how they were leaked. It's the first time it made a report that is so precise and in which a source is noted, which is quite rare. and it says too that Saudi services will probably confirm the statement that Osama bin Laden has died."
Defence analyst Maroof Raza believes that the reasons why Bin Laden has not been appeared to the public for some time now, could be numerous. He says there is a possibility that Laden may be ill -- but also that he simply might not be in complete control of al-Qaeda operations, or that he may have chosen to remain anonymous to get greater freedom of movement.
"There are assertions by some people that Bin Laden may have changed his facial persona a bit, maybe shaved his mustache or trimmed his beard to mingle with the crowd in the border areas between Pakistan and afghanistan , so that he gets a greater degree of autonomy" says Raza.
"The other (reason) is, he could be very ill, and if he's not in good health there would be no point showing a fumbling Bin Laden trying to address his followers worldwide. and third, it could be an indication that Bin Laden himself does not really control every operational aspect, and therefore his No 2 and No 3 can be well within their rights also, to make televised statements" Raza says.
In any case, Raza notes that Bin Laden having initiated a process, it would continue on its own momentum regardless of whether Bin Laden survived or not.
For now, Osama's deputy ayman al Zawahiri is making up for his absence. a TV channel in the Middle East says Zawahiri will soon release a tape about the Pope, US President Bush and the conflict in Darfur in Sudan.
as long as Osama evades capture, there will be pressure on Bush to deliver on his promise. For Bush and his allies - the greatest roadblock to finding Osama may actually come from the people -- people who live in villages along the Pakistan - afghan border, like Tazagram..
Here the small Pakhtun-speaking population has survived US and Pakistani forces, even the much-publicised air strike meant to target al Qaeda No 2 ayman al Zawahiri earlier this year. But despite the fire power and the $25 million bounty - Bin Laden is a hero here.
"I would feel privileged if Osama comes and stays with me as a guest, because he is a great hero and he is the enemy of the USa. I would look after Osama and I would support him. There is no way that anyone here would hand over Osama for money. If anyone does this he would not be able to live here any more" says Humayun Khan, a villager.
added to this, is the peace deal worked out between Musharraf's generals and the pro-Taliban militia on Tuesday - a deal that many in the Bush administration are viewing as akin to harbouring terror elements, making their hunt for Osama even more difficult.
Hamid Mir is the executive editor, northern region for Geo TV in Pakistan. He can be reached at: hamid.mir@geo.tv
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