By Arthur Weinreb
Monday, March 5, 2007
It would be relatively easy to do. The Conservative government is poised to bring down a budget on March 19 that could pave the way for a non confidence motion and a spring election. A tax cut here and a spending slash there; it wouldn't take too much to get the Liberals to join the NDP and the Bloc in bringing down the government.
It seems like a good time to have an election. The Tories have jumped in the polls, even in Liberal-friendly Ontario and it's hard to believe that it can get much better than this. The changes in the polls have much to do with the tanking of surprise Liberal leadership winner, Stphane Dion.
The largest issue that Dion had going for him was the environment and there is little doubt that global warming (or climate change as it is referred to in winter, especially during ice storms) has replaced health care as the number one issue on the minds of most Canadians. But Dion and the Liberals are now facing a new green Steve who's going to save the world from annihilation, although we're never sure exactly how this will be accomplished. All Dion and the Liberals can do is try and convince Canadians that the Conservatives aren't really serious about the environment because they've done nothing in the last year and one half since gaining power. This, of course opens the Liberals up to the accusation that they have done nothing to meet Canada's Kyoto targets between 1998 when the treaty was first signed until they left office in early 2006. For the Liberals, it's a lose-lose situation.
The Liberals were not helped by Stphane Dion's recent statement that the imposition of a carbon tax, that Dion was against while running for the leadership is "a possibility". Now imposing a tax on anything is always "a possibility" for a government so when a politician mentions that a proposed tax is a possibility, he or she really means it's a probability. If the one trick pony were to end up living on Sussex Drive, he would be so desperate to take action on climate change that he would inevitably bring in the carbon tax. At least that idea is not as bad as the one floated by little Markie Holland, who threatened to nationalize the Alberta oil sands in order to save the planet.
For those Canadians in our much beloved mushy middle who could vote either way, Dion did himself no favours by voting against the extension of Canada's anti-terrorism measures. It also didn't help that these measures were first introduced by a Liberal government and the current crop of Liberals were set to extend it until very recently. Not only did Dion show himself to be weak on terrorism, but he divided the Liberal caucus, something that apparently is not a good thing for a leader to do.
Now Stphane is expending tons of carbon emissions by going on a 17-day tour of the country in order to try and save himself and his party. His supporters are always saying that Canadians will love him when they get to know him. Well, he's been around for more than 10 years and held cabinet positions in the previous Liberal government, including the now all powerful environment portfolio. He's not the guy who dropped in from Harvard just to become the prime minister of Canada. He was around but few people outside of Ottawa actually noticed.
If a Conservative PM had the linguistic skill in French that Dion has in English, it would be the lead story on CBC news at least every other night. Although Dion's English language ability is hardly ever mentioned, it is not going to endear him to potential voters outside of the province of Quebec.
It seems that for the second leadership convention in a row, the Liberals delegates made a boo boo. Perhaps this can be explained by the fact that although you can end up in jail for drinking and driving, it is perfectly legal to get smashed and then vote for presumably the next prime minister of the country. Go figure.
It looks good for a spring election, especially in light of the fact that a fall election will have to be held around the October 10 Ontario election. But don't count on it. Harper, from his initial cabinet appointments to his foreign policy decisions has been full of surprises. Don't be surprised if an election is not called or forced until the fall.
The reality is that an election held now would only bring another Conservative minority government in. The only ones who would benefit by that would be Michael Ignatieff and the other Liberal leader wannabees who are waiting for Dion to lose and wave bye-bye. The Tories would be better off waiting and hoping to be in a position to win a majority; not an unreal expectation with Dion steering the Liberal ship.
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