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MLI’s Leading Economic Indicator

Canada’s Economy to Continue Experiencing Slow Growth in 2018

By Macdonald Laurier Institute ——--August 10, 2018

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Leading Economic Indicator OTTAWA, ON The Macdonald-Laurier Institute’s Leading Economic Indicator (LEI), a tool designed to predict changes in the Canadian business cycle, increased by 0.2 percent in June. This follows two consecutive gains of 0.1 percent.

The slight improvement in growth largely originated in the housing index

Overall, seven of the ten components posted modest gains, two were unchanged and one decreased. “The slight improvement in growth largely originated in the housing index,” says MLI Munk Senior Fellow Philip Cross, the author of the LEI . The housing index rose by 0.5 percent after five consecutive declines following a tightening of mortgage lending regulations took effect in January of this year. However, the Bloomberg index of consumer sentiment continued to erode, down 1.4 percent as US tariffs on some Canadian metals exports took effect. This contributed to the sluggish rise of the LEI. “The slow growth of the overall index points to continued modest gains in the Canadian economy in the second half of the year.”


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Macdonald Laurier Institute——

Canada’s only truly national public policy think tank based in Ottawa. MLI is rigorously independent and non-partisan, as symbolized by its name. Sir John A. Macdonald and Sir Wilfrid Laurier were two outstanding and long-serving former prime ministers who represent the best of Canada’s distinguished political tradition. A Tory and a Grit, an English-speaker and a French-speaker, each of them championed the values that led to the creation of Canada and its emergence as one of the world’s leading democracies and a place where people may live in peace and freedom under the rule of law.

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