By the way, since Rasmussen’s methodology sounds like common sense, why do the other pollsters use different methods and get such different results? All you have to is consider who gives them most of the attention they crave:
Rasmussen explains the methodology that showed Trump with 36 percent black approval
The standard media knock on every Rasmussen poll is that their results skew in favor of Republicans because Rasmussen is a “GOP polling outfit.”
That is not true.
“We’re independent, absolutely, with people on our team of all political persuasions,” Carroll said. “If you include me, I’m a straight independent. I’ve voted for both directions.”
A lot of people think that because they’ve seen Scott Rasmussen on Fox News, he’s basically a Republican shill. In fact, Scott Rasmussen hasn’t been involved with the firm for five years. Furthermore, Carroll explains, skewing poll results to favor one side would be death for Rasmussen because of its business model.
Rasmussen offers a daily metric called “econometric data,” which is a measure of consumer confidence. It’s designed to be every bit as accurate and trustworthy as the similar reports that come from the Conference Board and the University of Michigan. What’s more, Carroll said, major players on Wall Street closely follow Rasmussen’s econometric data.
“They take our daily index and march their models forward,” Carroll said. “Those groups look for a trend of correlating consumer confidence in America. What our clients tell us when they negotiate with us is that we cannot afford not to have this index.”
In other words, Rasmussen has too much tied up in the reputation of its work to start screwing around with skewing political polls. The folks on Wall Street and other who rely on Rasmussen data know the firm does not lean Republican or skew data, regardless of the impression the media try to leave.
And yet it’s undeniable that Rasmussen polls do tend to produce results more favorable to Republicans than other mainstream polls. So if it’s not because they’re skewing the results, what is it? Carroll says the explanation is simple: Rasmussen always polls likely voters rather than registered voters, which sets it apart from other pollsters.
“You’ve got all these pollsters who are running around and they’re doing political subjects, but they don’t have their likely-voter screen down,” Carroll said. “What that means is they’re looking at all adults, anyone who professes to be 18 or older, and if you’re a registered voter you could have registered years ago and not voted since.”
Registered voter polls do tend to produce more pro-Democrat results than likely voter polls. Rasmussen also weights its partisan samples more evenly than most. Where other pollsters might poll a sample that’s 12 percent more Democrat than Republican, a Rasmussen sample is more likely to show a difference of maybe 3 percent.
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Is that the right mix? The result of the 2016 election would certainly suggest it is. The final Rasmussen poll of the 2016 race predicted that Hillary would win the popular vote by 2 percent, while other polls had her winning it by anywhere from 3 percent to 11 percent. The envelope? 2.1 percent for Hillary, with Trump of course winning the electoral college by a wide margin.
Carroll finds that particularly funny, because for all the people who say Rasmussen skews polls Republican, they miss the fact that Rasmussen didn’t predict a Trump victory. It was only measuring the popular vote, and its final forecast predicted – correctly – that Hillary would win the popular vote.
As for the poll about black approval of Trump, Carroll checked the daily tracking poll while we were talking on Tuesday and noted that it had dropped for the moment down to 31 percent, which tracked with a drop in Trump’s overall approval from 49 percent to 46 percent.
And Carroll says that sounds about right:
“If you have a tracking poll, one of the things you want to see is that kind of variability,” Carroll said. “You want to see it flexing, because if you don’t see it flexing and it’s pegged at some level, you’re not as confident it’s working.”
Polling is an inexact science, but Rasmussen’s critics don’t give the firm enough credit for the science that goes into what Rasmussen produces.
By the way, since Rasmussen’s methodology sounds like common sense, why do the other pollsters use different methods and get such different results? All you have to is consider who gives them most of the attention they crave:
“Because they favor Democrats,” Carroll said. “Who is the mainstream media comprised of? Democrats. Why do you think Nate Silver walked on water? He gave them what they wanted. They wanted confirmation bias, pure and simple.”
But maybe all those pro-Democrat polls are doing is giving the liberal media a false sense of security. That certainly seemed to be the case in 2016. Maybe they should have listened to Rasmussen instead of trashing them. Maybe they should do the same thing now.
We told you on Monday about how thoroughly the Washington Post and others in the Beltway crowd were freaking out about the Rasmussen Reports poll showing President Trump’s approval rating among blacks at 36 percent.
Many of you liked the piece, and one who especially liked it was Ted Carroll, of Rasmussen’s parent company Noson Lawen Partners. And he wanted to tell you more.
