At some point the southern provinces will reject the unrelenting demands of communism and align with Hong Kong. And in business terms, Hong Kong will have accomplished a reverse takeover of Beijing. As part of another global wave of reform
So that there is no confusion about terms, there is a description from physics of an authoritarian system: “That which is not compulsory is prohibited”. Wonderfully elegant and it covers everything right down to school boards. From communism to today’s corruption of liberalism, socialists in all parties have trended authoritarian.
We have seen Francis Fukuyama’s “End of History”. Published in 1992, it essentially reviewed that with the end of the Cold War liberal democracies would be the final form of government for all nations. While hopeful, realization seems hopeless. As the ideals of liberal and limited government have been trashed by an extraordinary mania to “manage” the temperature of the nearest planet. Of course, this is just a front for control freaks to impose their will. Indeed, this seems to have been anticipated by “The End of Liberalism”. Published in 1969 by political scientist Theodore J. Lowi, the theme was that classical liberalism and free-market economies had been replaced by “interest group liberalism”.
Authoritarianism may not end with a bang, nor with a whimper, but with a crash
Which has been underway and Professor Lowi’s theme included that this could go too far and it would need to be reformed by a juridical democracy in order to restore the rule of law. Otherwise known as constitutionally limited government. Instead, society has been suffering another great experiment in authoritarian government, whereby most everyone exists at the pleasure of the state and its propagandists. Because of its own contradictions and excesses the long-running experiment could be reaching “ending action”. Yes, this is a term from the financial markets but authoritarianism may not end with a bang, nor with a whimper, but with a crash. And the media, global socialists as well as the financial markets have become highly agitated and vulnerable to change.
In politics, history provides a record of malevolent and magnificent events. The last outstanding example of the latter was the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, followed by the collapse of Communist governments in many countries. As seen, this did not end the experiment in authoritarianism, which simply shifted over to people-control through climate hysteria. To the point that fear has become an institutionalized growth industry for all levels of government. Even big corporations have taken to virtue signaling, but it uncertain if it is faddish or sincere.
East Germany
Rather than intellectualize about history it is practical just to recall it as it was happening. Having read about popular uprisings, this writer was thrilled in 1989 when East German border guards laid down their automatic weapons. The governing classes had granted themselves the privilege to murder ordinary Germans when going from one part of Germany to another. And the border guards being “of the people” suddenly allowed the folk to go cross-border shopping.
A key step in that eminently successful uprising was the discovery that the omniscient and omnipotent totalitarian state was failing. Indeed, the USSR was losing blood and treasure in a hopeless war in Afghanistan. And as if endless numbers of young men were being shipped back home in body bags was not bad enough there was a massive earthquake in the Russian Caucasus. It happened in December 1988 and the vertical displacement ranged from 3 to 5 feet. Called the Spitak earthquake property damage was immense with deaths estimated at up to 50,000 and injuries up to 130,000.
industrial city of Tangshan—with a million people-- in only a few minutes had ceased to exist
Reported at the time was that the wonders of central planning out of Moscow were seen to be nonsense. The first help in was the International Red Cross. Gorbachev even asked America for help.
“Great Lisbon Earthquake” 1755
An earlier shocking loss of faith occurred with the “Great Lisbon Earthquake” in November 1755. This was on the morning of All Saint Saints’ Day and the destruction included the collapse of 85 percent of the buildings and a death toll at up to 40,000 in a city of 200,000. Devastation included a tsunami. Many homes and churches had candles lit for the saints and the open flames ignited what was described as a “firestorm”.
The full catastrophe shook the faith of Christendom. Anticipating articles of today’s liberal faith, Rousseau thought it was due to the city having too dense a population.
“Tangshan” earthquake -- 1976
The next natural disaster to confound an authoritarian government was the “Tangshan” earthquake in July 1976. It seems like only a few years ago when seismology stations around the world pinpointed the location of a major quake. And with the reports, Beijing stated that there was not a severe earthquake. Geologists around the world were fascinated and also aware that the epicenter was in a populated area.
But one of the features of Communist omniscience was the boast that the government could predict earthquakes. But not this one and the next stage of denial was that there were few casualties. As later reported, the industrial city of Tangshan—with a million people-- in only a few minutes had ceased to exist. Including roads , rails and bridges.
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Outbreak of the coronavirus was suppressed until the trade deal with the U.S. was completed
Complete devastation with deaths estimated as high 700,000.
However, there was no denying the size of the disaster and the government quickly got on side. But did suffer the loss of esteem for a false boast about being able to predict earthquakes. While the “Cultural Revolution” was still on this the death toll was modest relative to the estimate of some 20 million deaths due to famine, massacres and executions.
The main thing is that an omniscient and omnipotent totalitarian government was placed in perspective. Understandably, China’s current government has been trying to “disappear” the Cultural Revolution.
And now, there is another natural disaster the People’s Utopia which the governing classes initially downplayed. Yes, the outbreak of the coronavirus was suppressed until the trade deal with the U.S. was completed. And then the governing classes went into a full panic in an attempt to prevent a pandemic.
How much of this is sincere and how much of it’s the ancient Communist drive for control, of course, can never be known. However, it is yet another huge test of the omniscience and omnipotence touted during experiments in authoritarian government.
Of which this writer has identified three great ones that ended when the financial markets and the economy were ruined. As each experiment was at its grandest the bureaucracy had a banner. In the Third Century it was the “Genius of the Emperor”. In the Sixteenth it was the “Infallibility of the Pope” accompanied by the “Divine Right of Kings”. Naturally, the priesthood that contrived the concept would be advising royalty.
China is fully committed to a another extraordinary attempt to control its people
Both ran until the experiment was seen as a failure and when the public had had enough of intrusion and costs the experiment ended and was followed by reform.
Indeed, the default position has been local government that taxpayers can tolerate and afford. While seeming improbable now, this is where the popular uprisings are heading. To another great reformation.
In the meantime, society has to deal with the current experiment in authoritarian government. For more than a hundred years each country in its own way has joined the party. And the common goal has been perfection. International Socialists were determined to create the “perfect” man. National Socialists were out to create the perfect race and land space.
And lately, control freaks are out to set the temperature of the nearest planet at the perfect level. All you have to do is send money to the United Nations which has the audacity to boast that a committee can set the temp to either 283 Kelvin or 282.5 Kelvin.
Of course, this is preposterous and as spokespersons from Maurice Strong to Christine Figueres have stated the intention is to change free countries into countries subservient to the UN. In 2013, PM Trudeau stated his admiration of China’s “basic dictatorship”.
Quite likely the timing has been inadvertent rather than planned, but China is fully committed to a another extraordinary attempt to control its people. The issue does not matter, but control does and it could soon be seen as yet another massive failure of omnipotence and omniscience.
When Communist countries were seen to fail in the late 1980s, it was part of a global movement to reform intrusive governments most anywhere.
Hong Kong did no go communist, Instead, it “colonized” China’s southern provinces
China’s reform could be driven as with any of the great reforms dating back to Ancient Egypt which set the classic form of popular uprisings. In 1975, astronomer Barbara Bell published on popular uprisings forcing dynastic changes. The governing classes were living well as ordinary folk were suffering hardships that go with poor harvests. So with too much-in-your-face and in-your-wallet government when push came to shove, what did the palace guards do?
Being “of the people” they laid down their spears and the distribution of food became more market oriented. Much the same happened in 1989 when East German border guards laid down their machine guns. And the distribution of everything became more democratic.
Opportunities for China date back to when the Brits assigned Hong Kong to Beijing. Then many were concerned that Hong Kong would go communist. It did not. Instead, it “colonized” China’s southern provinces making them more free and very prosperous. What this writer has been watching for is that the boom would end and be followed by a severe contraction.
Which is inevitable. And so will be the demands of the Communist masters in Beijing in the face of rapidly diminishing abilities to pay taxes. And then when push comes to shove a series of popular uprisings could reform the control freaks in the central government, who will also be seen as grasping and greedy bureaucrats. Recent uprisings in Hong Kong could be the start of something big.
And the wonders of omniscient and omnipotent authoritarian governments to “manage” the economy and the climate still enjoys widespread support. And as with a soaring stock promotion the public will believe even the most preposterous story, until it fails and the story is suddenly seen as a tout. Communists with a magnificent but likely malevolent rush for control have set themselves up for such a fall.
And a financial contraction would seriously impair the ability of the state to impose its will. In every country.
At some point the southern provinces will reject the unrelenting demands of communism and align with Hong Kong. And in business terms, Hong Kong will have accomplished a reverse takeover of Beijing. As part of another global wave of reform.
Bob Hoye (BobHoye.com) has been researching investments for decades, which eventually included the history of financial and political markets. He considers now to be the most fascinating time for both since the Great Reformation of the 1600s. Bob casts a caustic eye on all promotions and, having a degree in geophysics, is severely critical of the audacity that a committee can “manage” not just the economy, but also the temperature of the nearest planet. He has had articles published in major financial journals and, as a speaker, has amused assemblies in a number of cities, from London to Zurich to Tokyo.
So that there is no confusion about terms, there is a description from physics of an authoritarian system: “That which is not compulsory is prohibited”. Wonderfully elegant and it covers everything right down to school boards. From communism to today’s corruption of liberalism, socialists in all parties have trended authoritarian.
We have seen Francis Fukuyama’s “End of History”. Published in 1992, it essentially reviewed that with the end of the Cold War liberal democracies would be the final form of government for all nations. While hopeful, realization seems hopeless. As the ideals of liberal and limited government have been trashed by an extraordinary mania to “manage” the temperature of the nearest planet. Of course, this is just a front for control freaks to impose their will. Indeed, this seems to have been anticipated by “The End of Liberalism”. Published in 1969 by political scientist Theodore J. Lowi, the theme was that classical liberalism and free-market economies had been replaced by “interest group liberalism”.
