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After four years of global and domestic authoritarians trying to subvert the constitutionally governed US, it seems that the American Spring can enjoy another advance

American Spring: Part Three – Another Win?



American Spring: Part Three – Another Win?The second part of this serial essay was published on October 14th, which was a follow-up on American Spring, published on July 2, 2016. The theme from history, is that widespread dissatisfaction and hardship in the face of governing classes living well can inspire a benign popular uprising. This was the case in Eastern Europe in late 1989 when ordinary and unarmed folk took on an armed and murderous single-party state.   In 1968, the “Prague Spring” was crushed. In 1989, the “East German Spring” was successful. The “American Spring” can advance.

Despite instruction from 2,000 years of history that authoritarians always inflict economic disaster

Bringing down the Berlin Wall was an important step in reforming the destructive experiment in authoritarian government that began in the early 1900s. Every country has gone authoritarian, each in its own way. Two previous examples intruded into normal life and it took about 125 years to trash the economy. When induced hardship, confiscatory taxation and bullying intrusion inspired benign popular uprisings.  Rome provided an extraordinary record of governance that was ruined by becoming a welfare and a military dictatorship. The long collapse began around 310 AD. The next such experiment ran from 1500 when ambitious bureaucrats corrupted the church into a religious and military dictatorship.  The eventual reform was most successful in England. Inspired by an increasingly prosperous and independent middle class its salient success has been celebrated as the “Glorious Revolution”, of 1688.  It deposed the last absolutist king and dictatorial government.  Despite instruction from 2,000 years of history that authoritarians always inflict economic disaster, the global political establishment is attempting to throw off the practical checks and balances of a constitutional republic. And even with the case study of Venezuela destroying its economy in only twenty years the Left has gone mad in its compulsion to impose the same-old disasters.  And, of course, always for very compelling reasons.  

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The main nemesis on the path to reform will be the number of votes the Democrats can create or steal

But no matter how disastrous their quest will be, today’s establishment is determined to impose control, using hyped-up fears about weather and another influenza.  Successful popular uprisings overthrew the establishment with a number of examples in Ancient Egypt. They were inspired by the governing classes living and promising well as ordinary folk suffered the hardship of not just unemployment, but in some examples famine.  So far, this covers the history of great reforms, and it is timely to review the next step towards another success for the American Spring. The main nemesis on the path to reform will be the number of votes the Democrats can create or steal. However, there are some analytical points worth reviewing. If the stock market is rising for three months into the election it indicates a probable win for the incumbent. Since the June correction, the S&P soared into September and is testing the highs recently.  A Gallup poll published a few weeks ago, noted that 56% say that they are better off than four years ago, when under Obama. Hitherto, the highest number was 44% with Reagan’s second landslide in 1984.  A related article recorded that since primaries started in 1912, no incumbent has lost an election upon getting 75% of their party’s support. This year, Trump received support of more than 90 percent; the most ever for an incumbent. 

Nixon had his “silent majority” and then there were “Reagan Democrats” from which “Trump Democrats” could arise

Gallup’s Party Affiliation had Democrats at +5 in 2016. Five points over, and now Republicans are at +1. Nixon had his “silent majority” and then there were “Reagan Democrats” from which “Trump Democrats” could arise. Perhaps a growing number of Dems are realizing that their party is now headed by dangerously ambitious radicals. In a miracle of last-minute contrition, even some RINOs could support the Republican ticket.  It is likely that intellectuals from Rousseau to Lenin would have admired using the fear of bad weather and a severe influenza to overthrow the concept and benefits of limited government. Foreign political ghouls from Soros to President Xi to the Ayatollahs seem intent to destroy America’s magnificent experiment in freedom.   Standing as the main deterrent to one-world government under the corrupt United Nations, America and its middle classes must be destroyed.  Domestic ghouls include Pelosi, Schiff, Romney and social media tycoons, whose mania for control seems impervious to the economic damage that goes with authoritarian experiments.  Furthermore, Lincoln warned about the threats to freedom from within: “If destruction be our lot we must ourselves be its author and finisher.” Or as Cicero observed 2,000 years ago in his How To Win An Election: “Deception, intrigue, and treachery are everywhere”. He was referring to those inside the campaign.


In-your-face and in-your-wallet government is again becoming too insufferable to endure

The numbers above, are positive that within previous elections would suggest a Trump landslide. But there never has been such a determined attempt to undermine the checks and balances of America’s constitutional republic. As well as ballot boxes. The intensity of the mob in the streets and media seems remarkably similar to the early stages of the Russian and French Revolutions that became political and economic disasters.   On the optimistic side, in-your-face and in-your-wallet government is again becoming too insufferable to endure. And for over 4,000 years such offense has inspired benign popular uprisings. In Ancient Egypt ordinary folk forced dynastic changes whereby pharaohs and their advising priesthoods were thrown out. In the 1500s, the Church invented the concept of the divine right of kings, of course advised by the priesthood. More lately, the divine right of bureaucrats has prevailed and lately advised by “experts” on central banking, weather and respiratory diseases.  The American general election provides the key step in furthering the benign reform that began in 2016. On all previously successful uprisings, the mechanism had two parts. One was that the bullying establishment suddenly lost the will to impose authority. And at the same time, the public discovers it can throw off the chains of submission. After four years of global and domestic authoritarians trying to subvert the constitutionally governed US, it seems that the American Spring can enjoy another advance. American Spring – July 2016 Election 2020 – October 14, 2020

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Bob Hoye -- Bio and Archives

Bob Hoye (BobHoye.com) has been researching investments for decades, which eventually included the history of financial and political markets. He considers now to be the most fascinating time for both since the Great Reformation of the 1600s.  Bob casts a caustic eye on all promotions and, having a degree in geophysics, is severely critical of the audacity that a committee can “manage” not just the economy, but also the temperature of the nearest planet. He has had articles published in major financial journals and, as a speaker, has amused assemblies in a number of cities, from London to Zurich to Tokyo.


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