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Profoundly important time in political history: Be interesting to watch those protecting the predatory establishment. Definitely not the police, nor the military. Ironically, the guards have been the Mainstream Media. Will they lay down their weapons

Benign Popular Uprisings Can be Sudden



The Fake News Wall Is Crumbling, Benign Popular Uprisings Can be SuddenNo matter in what century they occur, benign popular uprisings have been inspired by one thing—the iniquity of governments living the good life while the taxpayer suffers hardship and driven to desperation begin to say “No!” to the bullies.  Such opposition to the privileged has been shocking.

Soviet tanks, troops, machine guns silenced benign popular uprisings in East Germany in 1953, Hungary in 1956 and the wonderfully named “Prague Spring” of 1968

It took decades of unrelenting oppression to arouse the spirits of East Germans to tear down the Berlin Wall. That sudden political inspiration occurred in late 1989 as ordinary folk stared down a still murderous police state. Regrettably, earlier attempts failed. Soviet tanks, troops and machine guns silenced benign popular uprisings in East Germany in 1953, Hungary in 1956 and the wonderfully named “Prague Spring” of 1968.  With blood and death.  I have been writing and addressing forums about successful popular reforms for over a decade and when you have seen one, you have seen them all. The most recent and hugely successful example began in East Germany in 1989 and in spreading around the world reformed most Communist governments. Effectively ending the state murder count at 100 million people, who were guilty of incorrect thinking. With taxpayer rejection of centrally planned and usually nihilistic policies, control freaks quickly moved from socialism to environmentalism. Even if only selling ideas, today’s puritans have to make a living. In the early 1990s, the Foundation for Economic Education wrote on this, recording the names that so blithely left Communism because they found another banner by which to seek compensation while imposing control. 

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At the worst of times and when push came to shove, the palace guards laid down their spears

And the more calculating environmentalists soon discovered “Global Warming” (CAGW) and its revivalist iterations right out to “Extinction Rebellion” (XR). Next in the saga has been another severe influenza which has been ambitiously used to shut down the global economy—one country at a time.  There’s been nothing like it since Soviet central planners imposed Lysenkoism upon Eastern Europe’s huge agricultural regions. In the early 1930s, famine was forced upon productive farmers. Overall, millions of country undesirables died. No famine in the politically correct Kremlin, which gets this essay to the actual mechanism behind benign popular uprisings and reform.  And why they seemed sudden at the time.  In the 1970s, astronomer Barbara Bell, published on real climate change in Ancient Egypt. A series of favorable floods and better harvests fostered increasing numbers of relatively contented people.  Then there would be poorer floods and harvests forcing hardship and famine. But mainly upon ordinary folk. The governing classes continued to live well, but as hardship became severe the promises were seen as fake. And as Bell observed, the palace guards protecting the controlling, but well-fed governing classes, were not of the governing classes.  At the worst of times and when push came to shove, the palace guards laid down their spears. Bureaucrats, pharaohs and their advisory priesthoods were overwhelmed. Under the interregnum, food was more democratically distributed. 

Chronically oppressed East Germans grabbed freedom and immediately went cross-border shopping

A fascinating account. Enough that this writer was watching for it in the late 1980s as protests occurred behind the Iron Curtain. That version of in-your-face and in-your-wallet government became too much. And the tipping point was reached when East German border guards laid down their machine guns. Then chronically oppressed East Germans grabbed freedom and immediately went cross-border shopping.  Dictator Honecker had to scrap the law that permitted statists to murder ordinary citizens for going from one part of Germany to another. And history recorded another suddenly successful popular uprising. It took a long time to get there, but when the Wall came down the movement for reform sped up and became dramatic.  There have been others. But now it is timely to analyze why the Soviets allowed reform when previously they had murderously put down uprisings.  Quite likely in 1989, Soviet security people discussed quelling the reform movement. Much as Democrat think tanks have been doing lately.  Why did the Kremlin not execute the usual measures?  One might just as well ask how benign popular uprisings really work? And trying to explain it without history relies upon conjecture rather than scholarship. The change shocks the predators and inspires the complacent. 


England’s ”Glorious Revolution”

As Solzhenitsyn noted, upon accusations by their child, the police state would arrest the parents. Ideally in the middle of the night, when neighbors and the accused would be too confused to make trouble. So, authoritarian jackboots were at work twenty-four hours a day And suddenly, the boot lost the will to stomp on faces, and at the same time universal complacency threw off submission. Somewhat like the change in the markets from an exciting boom to dismal bust. But in this case, the end of today’s predatory experiment in authoritarian government would not be a dismal event for ordinary people. When the return to self-government will be celebrated, much as was England’s ”Glorious Revolution”. Recent important dates are November 9, 1989 (the Wall), November 9, 2016 (H. Clinton conceded) and November ????, 2020. Beginning a few weeks ago, some polling “numbers” began advancing for President Trump relative to Joe Biden. More recently it is becoming a strong surge for Trump and perhaps some of Biden’s money for influence scandal is getting through to Democrat as well as those who don’t normally vote. Above is mentioned that in Ancient Egypt the palace guards laid down their spears opening the doors to reform. In East Germany in another century, much the same happened as border guards laid down their machine guns.

Where are today’s guards?

Where are today’s guards? At such a profoundly important time in political history, it will be interesting to watch those protecting the predatory establishment. Definitely not the police, nor the military. Ironically, the guards have been the Mainstream Media. And will they lay down their weapons – voluntarily? Not having any diaries from the guards in 1989 or some 4,000 years ago, a guess is that they suddenly discovered who the bad guys are. And who the good guys are. In time for the election? Doubtful, but the surge by the “deplorables” may be enough to secure the White House.

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Bob Hoye -- Bio and Archives

Bob Hoye (BobHoye.com) has been researching investments for decades, which eventually included the history of financial and political markets. He considers now to be the most fascinating time for both since the Great Reformation of the 1600s.  Bob casts a caustic eye on all promotions and, having a degree in geophysics, is severely critical of the audacity that a committee can “manage” not just the economy, but also the temperature of the nearest planet. He has had articles published in major financial journals and, as a speaker, has amused assemblies in a number of cities, from London to Zurich to Tokyo.


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