Putin can save face and leave the Ukrainian theater securing concessions such as Ukraine not seeking or accepting membership into NATO. Like all dictators, he can then see himself as a historical hero
One of the biggest fears the West has is that actions on their part may trigger the possibility of Putin launching World War III. If military aircraft is given to Ukraine, the story goes that Putin will turn to nuclear weapons in retaliation.
The flaws in this way of thinking are many and tragic if allowed to persist. First, Putin has clearly shown that any signs of weakness are dealt with by additional forceful and aggressive actions. The Russian leader is a bully and avoids confrontation with those willing to push back.
Putin invaded Ukraine under the feeble leadership of President Obama and Biden but bypassed any such activities while President Trump was in office. This avoidance indicates that Putin is far from a "crazy" lunatic looking to end humanity with nukes and is instead a strategist seeking the quickest and least costly way to accomplish his goals.
The Ukrainian people have shown that they will defend their homeland with or without air support. Not providing Ukraine with the aircraft needed to protect their cities guarantees many more dead Ukrainians by sending a dangerous message to Putin that he can and must level Ukrainian cities into dust to accomplish his goals.
The aircraft provided to Ukraine will not cause the Russian army to lose the war but add a significant pricetag to continue its war efforts.
Putin is not suicidal. His generals are not suicidal. They embarked on the actions in Ukraine with the belief that the conflict would be over within a few days. Putin took advantage of weak U.S. leadership and believed Ukraine would fall before the West could form a strategy. That assumption turned out to be very wrong.
The West must not allow Putin's poor decision to be compounded by their fears. Without the needed aircraft, thousands of Ukrainians will immediately die at the hands of Russia's superior airforce. While thousands more will needlessly perish in a protracted insurgency war.
Ironically, the way out for both Putin and Ukraine is the delivery of the requested aircraft by The United States and others. Justification for such a delivery can be made due to the many war crimes against Ukrainian women and children.
Perception as a world leader with a strong military means everything to Putin. He cannot afford to appear to be in a real struggle against a Ukrainian army that lacks a viable airforce. Such a development would be massively embarrassing to him and the Russian military, so he will increase the destruction of Ukrainian cities.
Instead, Putin can use the excuse that The United States and others provided a quasi-airforce with the added aircraft. Putin can claim that he was fighting against all of NATO. He can further say that his clear thinking alone and his desire for de-escalation determined negotiating a peaceful solution.
That NATO would have sacrificed all of Ukraine, something he was unwilling to do.
Putin can save face and leave the Ukrainian theater securing concessions such as Ukraine not seeking or accepting membership into NATO. Like all dictators, he can then see himself as a historical hero.
Rick Hayes lives in the epicenter of liberal land where reality and truth will never encounter a welcome mat.
An award-winning writer and photographer, with over twenty years of professional experience in both fields, Hayes started his journalism adventure after a successful, eye-opening career as a Banker in Wall Street. Although he spent his early work life surrounded by custom made shirts, expensive ties and the shiniest of shoes, Hayes was an accomplished singer, cutting a few records with a local band and appearing on one of the first cable shows.
Working for a weekly New York paper, in one of the most politically corrupt areas in the State, he began investing his time trying to understand the nature of corruption.
