The 2020 US Presidential Election cycle is a doozy isn't it? Beginning with a spectacular economy, 2020 has turned itself into the year from hell as it rampaged through treason allegations, impeachment hearings, COVID-19, lockdowns, continuing riots, and a Supreme Court battle. Unsurprisingly, feelings are raw, and the cultural divide seems larger than ever.
Trump, however, has done better than survive the constant onslaught, he's successfully deflected its ruthless force directly back onto Democrat hopeful, former VP Joe Biden, and the world is beginning to accept that Joe isn't up to the challenge. In fact, Trump's focus on the Biden family's corruption has hit hard and isn't going away.
Freedom is the unifying force
Trump's survival is meaningful as it represents the substantial strength and commitment of his base, who are thrilled with his staunch and unwavering defence of them. Loyalty is indeed a two-way street. But, if Biden is somehow more palatable to voters than Hillary was, Trump may need to expand his support beyond his devoted base to win the Electoral College, never mind the popular vote.
There are several signs he's succeeding on that front and the resulting surge in support is intensifying an already excited Red Wave.
The Chair of the Republican National Committee, Rona McDaniel, recently released poll numbers gathered at nine Trump rallies between the 12th and 21st of October. The numbers support the contention that Freedom is this election's core issue.
Of the 150,801 people polled at those rallies, 49,067 were not registered Republicans. Furthermore, another 42,253 were from the Apathetic block, many of whom haven't voted in several elections.
In August, it was reported that 40 percent of rising gun sales went to new firearm owners, most of whom were African American men and women. Of these 5 million new gun owners, 2 million are women. Few of these new owners will be voting for the party that wants to take their guns away.
The rally and gun numbers suggest the #Walkaway movement is real, and Democrats are leaving the party in droves in search of law, order, and freedom.
They also hint that the Libertarian contingent in the Independent and Apathetic voting blocks are concerned about the future and have engaged to protect their civil liberties. [url=https://canadafreepress.com/article/a-blue-wave-will-swamp-the-nation.-a-red-wave-will-right-the-ship.-a-trump]https://canadafreepress.com/article/a-blue-wave-will-swamp-the-nation.-a-red-wave-will-right-the-ship.-a-trump[/url]
In the final analysis, once the dust settles and the experts figure out that freedom is a foundational principle, not a bi-partisan issue, the answer will look obvious to all: Freedom roared!
Don't be surprised if Trump keeps his base, shows huge gains among all minority groups, crushes the electoral College, crests the 70 million vote mark, and wins the popular vote by more than 5 million over hapless Joe Biden.
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"The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US house of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends." https://cookpolitical.com/about
In July, with only four months remaining before the election, National Editor Amy Walter's analysis led to a comment widely shared at the time.
"This election is looking more like a Democratic tsunami than simply a Blue Wave."
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In, October 22, she explained Trump would now be graded by his record, which was best reflected by Presidential Approval Polls. Her conclusion was that Trump was still in trouble, and Biden would remain in the lead nationally.
Assuming that Amy Walter is excellent at what she does and that she comes to clear, rational conclusions, then a Trump win raises questions about the methodology as only four months prior her analysis hinted strongly that a Democrat tsunami was forming.
Now, a huge Trump landslide, or tsunami, presents an even larger dilemma because that result would be 180 degrees out of phase from and completely opposite to her July analysis. In other words, the call for a Democrat tsunami would be as far wrong as one could get in that case.
So, how is it that an intelligent political analyst making good decisions can conclude, just four months prior to a historic election, the opposite of the eventual reality? Doesn't that seem weird?
Contemplate poll analysis from this viewpoint.
Polls are the facts to be analyzed but what do they truly represent? They reflect opinions whose perceptions are derived directly from the information consumed and believed. In the end, poll analysis does not measure opinion so much as it measures the efficacy or strength of the media narrative that led to it.
Poll gaps will increase if the narrative sticks and they will shrink when the narrative falters. So, while discussing polling trends allows pundits to seem well informed and smarter than the average Joe, the entire industry is mostly theatrical discussion to support an agenda and avoid talking about the real purpose of the polls—to monitor if the media narrative message is sailing or sinking.
One reason a political poll gap tightens as the critical election date draws near is that over time, reality and experience supplants the narrative. These truths are then reflected in the tightening polls. With respect to the 2020 election, the shift from Democrat tsunami in July to likely Biden in October isn't just a sign of the President's increasing popularity, though that is happening, but an indicator the media narrative on Trump's record is dying. It's another marker in favour of a big Trump win and evidence the narrative was Fake News.
Would this model be better?
Imagine having a Fake News filter weed out false information prior to public consumption so it can't improperly impact understanding, and subsequent polling. It might look like this.
The Fake News filter can't be left in the hands of the Tech Giants, the media, or fact checkers as they are integral parts of the Media Narrative
What would happen to the same analyst's conclusions in this new model? Because Fake News narratives are trapped and discarded, polls would align with the news consumer's more realistic understanding of the issue. This means the polls would never have suggested a Democrat tsunami in the first place, and the poll analysis wouldn't either.
The Fake News filter can't be left in the hands of the Tech Giants, the media, or fact checkers as they are integral parts of the Media Narrative. It must remain with the individual and be applied to every statement consumed. In other words, not going to happen any time soon.
There is a shortcut however, and it is based on trust. You can only trust the source if you can trust the message and the moment you prove any statement Fake, or deliberately deceptive, you also prove the source Fake. Unless, of course, they move to correct the error. Trust is key.
Mark Gray hails from the Kirkland Lake, Ontario area and has spent over 30 years as an Analyst/Developer in Big IT, mostly in Calgary’s Oil-And-Gas Sector. Creator of an non-partisan, analytical methodology that seeks out and identifies Bias and Deceit embedded in weaponized information.
The 2020 US Presidential Election cycle is a doozy isn't it? Beginning with a spectacular economy, 2020 has turned itself into the year from hell as it rampaged through treason allegations, impeachment hearings, COVID-19, lockdowns, continuing riots, and a Supreme Court battle. Unsurprisingly, feelings are raw, and the cultural divide seems larger than ever.
Trump, however, has done better than survive the constant onslaught, he's successfully deflected its ruthless force directly back onto Democrat hopeful, former VP Joe Biden, and the world is beginning to accept that Joe isn't up to the challenge. In fact, Trump's focus on the Biden family's corruption has hit hard and isn't going away.
