The Obama era opened with his Cairo speech, in which he embraced Muslims in general and the Muslim Brotherhood in particular. He planned to depose the secular dictators and replace them with the Muslim Brotherhood. Thus Gadhafi, Mubarak and Assad were marked for removal in that order. The EU was on board.
After supporting the takeover of Egypt by the Muslim Brotherhood headed by Mohamed Morsi, he backed the takeover of Syria by the Muslim Brotherhood in collaboration with the newly Islamist Turkey, headed by Recep Tayyid Erdogan, extolling him as his best friend.
All this is transitioning to a new Middle East.
A week ago Israel and Turkey signed a Reconciliation Agreement with Turkey after 6 years of negotiations. Turkey ruptured the relation in reaction to the killing in self-defense by the IDF of 10 Turks on the Mavi Marmara ship, which had sailed from Turkey intending to violate Israel's legal blockade of Gaza. The broader context was that Turkey wanted to champion the Arab fight against Israel as a means to be seen by Arabs as their standard bearer. To their chagrin the
UN Panel on the incident, found that Israel had the legal right to impose a blockade and she did it in the right way. This took the wind out of Turkey's sails.
This agreement was
rejected by 65% of Israeli Jews and endorsed by 24%. Those who rejected it did so primarily because Israel was faultless in the matter yet agreed to pay $21 million to a compensation fund for the families of the dead attackers set up by Turkey. The humiliation was too much to bear. In addition Turkey is no longer a friend of the west. It supports the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas and to some extent ISIS and Israel shouldn't pretend otherwise.
Nevertheless the Israeli government saw it otherwise when its security cabinet voted in favour 7 to 3. Even those who voted against, namely Avigdor Lieberman, Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked, simply recorded their no vote but did not lead any battle against the deal. Did the government know something that the public didn't know? I think so.
The agreement paves the way for Israel and Turkey to negotiate an energy deal in which Israel sells a huge quantity of gas to Turkey for many years for local consumption and for transport to Europe for its consumption. Enabling this deal was extremely
important for Israel as the cost of building a pipeline to Greece, as opposed to Turkey, was economically prohibitive. This deal will result in reducing the energy dependence by Turkey and Europe on Russian energy. One would have thought that Russia would object to such a deal yet Russia urged Israel to conclude it. Obviously something is in it for Russia.
Hurriyet News reported on July 4/16:
"The diversification of gas resources for Turkey and the EU means less gas being bought from Russia. Every cubic meter to be bought from Israeli and Cypriot fields (and Egyptian, too) would be subtracted from
Russian exports. On the other hand, if Turco-Russian normalization process proceeds further, the Russians could reactivate the new South Stream project to sell gas to EU markets via another pipeline through Turkey and the Turkish economic zone in the Black Sea, in order to meet the increasing demand in Europe."
Apparently it is to be viewed as one of a series of reconciliation agreements that are in the works, namely, between,
- Turkey and Russia. Turkey has already apologized and offered compensation. Further negotiations are taking place regarding Syria and the Kurds.
- Egypt and Turkey. Unfortunately, Erdogan just gave a speech in which he said that a thaw with Egypt's "oppressive regime" should not be expected any time soon. What bothers him is al Sisi's fight against the Muslim Brotherhood and against Morsi. Nevertheless reconciliation will take place. It will be modeled after the reconciliation with Israel. Turkey is committed not to let Hamas act against Israel from its soil and, by the same token, not to permit Hamas's parent and El-Sisi's arch enemy, the Muslim Brotherhood, operate from Turkey. Turkey will content itself with paying lip service to the Muslim Brotherhood just as it has contented itself with paying lip service only to Hamas. Israel, as an ally of Egypt's will work to bring this about.
- Turkey and Cyprus. The Guardian reports that both the US and Turkey has confirmed that reconciliation talks are proceeding and that a settlement could be reached by the end of the year
Meanwhile, Jordan is quietly dismantling the Muslim Brotherhood's organization in Jordan.
DEBKA
reports:
"It fits neatly into the current joint Saudi-Egyptian bid for Israel to bolster their emerging alliance with Turkey that is designed for drawing a Sunni line against Iran's expansionist moves in the Horn of Africa, the Red Sea, the Straits of Aqaba and in uncomfortable proximity to the Mediterranean shores of Israel and Egypt."
Netanyahu said of the deal in a conversation with Sec. Kerry, "I think it's an important step here to normalize relations on one side. It has also immense implications for the Israeli economy... and I mean positive immense implications."
Debka reports (June 27/16) two motivating elements giving rise to the reconciliation agreements between Turkey and Russia and Turkey and Israel.
"Israel is in need of a major client to boost the development of its offshore gas fields, whereas Turkey wants to be that client and, at the same time, Russia is after a piece of the energy bonanza and most of all a contract to build the pipeline to Europe.
"On the table now is Israeli-Turkish-Russian military and intelligence collaboration for securing the Israeli offshore gas in the Mediterranean--a prospect that brought the Turkish president to finally apologize for his air force downing a Russian Su-24M bomber over the Syrian-Turkish border on Nov. 24, 2015. "
In addtition, it reports,
"It fits neatly into the current joint Saudi-Egyptian bid for Israel to bolster their emerging alliance with Turkey that is designed for drawing a Sunni line against Iran's expansionist moves in the Horn of Africa, the Red Sea, the Straits of Aqaba and in uncomfortable proximity to the Mediterranean shores of Israel and Egypt."
Turkey is desperately in need of Israel's assistance in fighting terrorism.
Globes published an article in April 2016 in which it argued "Gazprom's interest in Israeli gas reservoir Leviathan is a strategic issue for Russian President Vladimir Putin". While there are advantages to such a deal, Israel is concerned that Russia will seek to prevent the gas from going to Turkey. Noble Energy, one of the partners in the field, prefers a western group as a partner and the US, no doubt will not be happy with Russian involvement in the eastern Mediterranean."
There is now talk of a
Russia/Israel/Turkey Alliance that would dominate the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East.
Zvi Bar'el writing in
HAARETZ, on July 2/16, note's Turkey's simultaneous reconciliation agreements with Russia and Israel provide a rare chance to design a new Middle Eastern policy.
"Reconciliation with Russia only bolstered the feeling in Iran that Russia could join Turkey in demanding the ouster of Syrian President Bashar Assad and replacing Iran on the Syrian front.
"Iran and Russia do not see eye to eye on how to conduct the war in Syria. While Iran wants to complete the conquest of Aleppo, Russia has made clear that such a conquest cannot be expected any time soon. Russia's ambassador in Damascus stated as much in an interview with the Russian News Agency Interfax, explaining that he does not expect an assault on Aleppo or Raqqah (the ISIS capital in Syria) in the near future."
Thus both Assad and Iran could get their marching orders. Such an event would leave Hezbollah high and dry. Certainly Israel would be in favour of this.
"The Kurds in Syria fear that rejuvenated ties between Turkey, Russia and Israel could compromise the assistance they are receiving from Russia and could establish a combined Israeli, Russian and Turkish aerial umbrella against an independent Kurdish entity in Syria."
The Syrian Kurds, with US assistance, are fighting to create territorial contiguity from the Iraqi border to the main Syrian port city of Lattakia in the west.
That is Turkey's nightmare scenario, which it might now be able to prevent if it persuades Russia to thwart American plans." says Bar'el.
For my part, I believe that Russia and Israel will continue to support Kurdish independence and that it is Turkey who will have to learn to live with it. In the long run, Turkey will have to give into the demands of its Kurdish population to avoid their attacks and ultimately to keep them satisfied to remain in Turkey.
Ms. Aydintasbas, a fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, wrote in the
Wall Street Journal this week, after discussing Turkey's plight,
"Turkey should support the idea of a Kurdish belt on its southern borders, grandfather a Kurdish zone, isolate itself from the instability in Iraq and Syria, and return to the peace talks at home. With nearly 20% of its population being Kurds, Mr. Erdogan's anti-Kurdish policy in Syria aggravates the insurgency at home."
Giancarlo Elia Valori, an Italian industrialist and honorary member of the Academy of Science of the Institut de France in an article published in the
Russian Insider on June 15
, explored the growing alliance between Russia and Israel,
"During Netanyahu's visit to Russia on April 21, 2016, for example, the Israeli Prime Minister and the Russian President pointed out Russia's interest in developing and exploiting the new offshore natural gas field known as Leviathan, which will be the real "game changer" in the Middle East in the near future. If GazProm cooperates in the exploitation and marketing of the offshore gas field between Haifa and the Gaza Strip, it will be vital for the Russian Federation to ensure--along with Israel--security of communications, particularly in relation to possible Hezbollah actions from Lebanon or Iranian pressure on the Golan.
"This new energy system will finally transform relations between Israel and Turkey, which will be the hub of the natural gas extracted from the Leviathan field, and enable Russian oil and gas companies to enter the Middle East market, excluding US companies operating in Turkey and in most of the Sunni world. It is worth recalling that both Iran and Qatar now operate mainly on the natural gas market, and the large Israeli Leviathan gas field could give many of the fiercest Muslim, Shiite or Sunni opponents of the Jewish State pause."
"Finally, Israel, jointly with the Russian Federation, will be able to project globally. In the future, there will be a place for Israel in the Chinese One-Belt, One-Road Initiative in Central Asia, in India, even in Latin America and in some African areas. All areas now in the Russian and Chinese strategic area."
What is needed to usher in this new Middle East is for the following to happen as discussed above.
- Turkey must abandon its fight with the Kurds and make peace with them.
- Turkey must reconcile with Egypt by reducing support for the Muslim Brotherhood.
- Turkey must finalize their reconciliation with Cyprus
- Russia must send Assad and Iran packing along with their support of Hezbollah
- A federated Syria to be created to include autonomous areas for the Alawites, the Kurds and the Sunni. The latter two may choose instead to amalgamate with their Iraq counterparts.
None of this, conflicts with American policy and actions nor with the desires of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states. It's the way to go.