INSS

A Balance of Terror in the War on Terror

The car bomb in Damascus that ended the life of Imad Mughniya also put an end to the world-wide manhunt lasting over two decades for the person responsible for the deaths of hundred of citizens of many countries.

The Fall of the Gaza Wall

When Hamas broke down the wall separating the Gaza Strip from Egypt on the night of January 22-23 and masses of Palestinians rushed to the Egyptian side to buy goods and enjoy the taste of freedom, the pictures and declarations in the international media created the impression that this was an event of far-reaching significance, similar to the fall of the Berlin Wall.

“The King David Statement” and Bush’s Developing Position

During his visit to Israel this month, President George W. Bush laid out his updated approach to an Israeli-Palestinian settlement. In a statement delivered at the King David Hotel in Jerusalem, Bush fleshed out his vision of “two states, Israel and Palestine, living side by side in peace and security,” on the eve of negotiations over “core issues” between delegations of the two parties.

The Assault of Suicide-Bombers in Pakistan and Afghanistan

During the past year, al-Qaeda and the Taliban have apparently decided to shift the focus of their suicide actions to the Pakistan-Afghanistan theater.

Can We Rely on the IAEA?

The November 15, 2007 International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report to its Board of Governors and to the Security Council produced two extreme reactions among those who are most concerned with Iran's nuclear project:

Money and Influence in the Global Village

Relations between trans-national corporations and states have become more significant in the era of globalization. The corporations transcend borders and operate as a global network while states are still defined by territory.

American Intelligence Reappraises the Iranian Nuclear Issue

At the beginning of December 2007, the National Intelligence Council, the supreme body of the American intelligence community, released a reappraisal of Iran’s nuclear intentions and capabilities. The document, a non-classified summary of a detailed and classified analysis on the subject, states that Iran halted its secret nuclear weapons program in the fall of 2003 and has yet to restart it.

The Post-Annapolis Dynamic – The Hamas Factor

Although it was not represented at Annapolis, Hamas had a significant role in paving the way to the meeting. Hamas’ takeover of the Gaza Strip was clear evidence of the growing strength of the militant Islamist stream in the Palestinian camp, and it was therefore perceived as a threat.

How Important is it for Syria to be at Annapolis?

Ever since the Geneva Conference in December 1973, Middle Easterners have become used to the suspense surrounding the question of whether the “bad boy” of Arab politics, Syria, will or will not take part in any meeting connected with the peace process. In recent years, as Syria has become more closely integrated into the political axis led by Iran, the question has become less interesting. Still, it has arisen again in advance of the Annapolis meeting. Will Syria take part and, if so, at how senior a level?

Does the IAEA Have the Authority and Capacity to Investigate Nuclear Non-Compliance?

On October 28, 2007 International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General (DG), Dr. Mohamed ElBaradei, criticized the Israeli attack on a suspected Syrian nuclear site and said, "If countries have information that the country is working on a nuclear-related program, they should come to us." He then went on to argue that the Vienna-based Agency "had the authority and capacity to investigate any such information." In view of past performance, the claim of "authority and capacity" bears review.

Lebanon’s Dual Crisis

Humor, especially black humor, sometimes captures political reality even better than the most incisive analysis. According to a joke popular in some circles in Lebanon, an ambulance on the way to the hospital signifies one of two things: another bombing of an anti-Syrian personality or another Shi'ite baby about to be born. The two possibilities represent, respectively, the focus of Lebanon's near-term government crisis, whose outcome is uncertain, and the essence of its longer-term identity crisis, whose outcome is virtually foreordained.

Strategic Implications of the Surge in Oil Prices

By Shmuel Even During the month of October, the price of Brent light crude oil reached a peak of $90 per barrel. That surge follows continuous rises since 2003. In real terms, oil prices are now significantly higher than during the "first wave" of price rises after the 1973 Yom Kippur War and are close to the all-time high reached during the "second wave" that followed the Islamic Revolution in Iran.

Update on Iran: Continued Defiance, No Sanctions, and More Talk of Possible Military Action

By Emily B. Landau Iran began a process of negotiations with the IAEA this summer with the aim of clearing up the lingering outstanding questions regarding its past nuclear activities. As always with Iran, this involves a complicated process, including pre-talks and then endless room for further conditions and clarifications down the road. Once again Iran dangles the bait of "cooperation" as a means of gaining valuable time for pressing its program forward. Russia and China, joined this time also by Germany, are unwilling to punish Iran with a third round of sanctions until it is clear how this process is evolving.

Are the U.S. and Turkey on a Collision Course

By Gallia Lindenstrauss Turkish-American relations currently face two significant challenges. One has to do with the Turkish inclination to enter northern Iraq in order to deal with Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK) fighters operating there.

Negotiations with the Palestinians: An Inevitable Failure or a Chance for Change

By Amir Kulick Over the last few weeks Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) have conducted political discussions meant to culminate in a joint declaration according to the Israeli approach, or in an agreement on principles according to the Palestinian approach.