Ian R. Campbell

IMF head Christine Lagarde suggests Greece and Spain should be given more time

Today’s Detailed Commentaries Eurozone: IMF head Christine Lagarde suggests Greece and Spain should be given more time An article this morning reports Christine Lagarde, the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, today has said “struggling European countries such as Greece and Spain should be given more time to reduce their budget gaps”.

Watch for possible important developments in Greece this week

Eurozone >> Greece: Watch for possible important developments in Greece this week You might want to read an article published Friday that reported:

• Greece’s Prime Minister has warned that his country is plunging into a ‘Weimar Republic like’ economic and social crisis; and,
• German Chancellor Angela Merkel is travelling to Greece today to ‘see for herself’, in what will be her first trip to Athens since the crisis started.

IMF lowers global growth forecasts, and likely that of the United Kingdom

Today’s Detailed Commentaries World >> Economy: IMF lowers global growth forecasts, and likely that of the United Kingdom The International Monetary Fund cut its global GDP forecast to 3.3% and 3.6% for 2012 and 2013 respectively. Reuters had reported Friday that German newspaper Handelsblatt said the International Monetary Fund would do that. Concurrently, The Telegraph reported that last week the IMF was expected to cut its growth forecast for the United Kingdom.

On financial advisors, Mark-to-market rule changes

Today’s Detailed Commentaries Financial Markets: On financial advisors On my continuous point of taking a large (for many people I am sure 'greater') role in making investing decisions with respect to your own capital, some time ago a reader took the time to send me a thoughtful e-mail setting out his general views on interacting with investment advisors. In essence he expressed the view that knowledgeable investors should be encouraged to have specific discussions with their advisors to determine how much those advisors really understand about the various aspects of gold and silver investments, both as insurance and, in the case of mining stocks, as investments (read equity investments generally).

Free cash flow – the best valuation metric

Today’s Detailed Commentaries Valuation Theory: Free cash flow – the best valuation metric Why Read and Watch: Because Free Cash Flow is indeed the best valuation metric for established companies that generate cash flow from operations. Featured Article and Video: A recent short article with an accompanying video purports to explain what ‘free cash flow’ is, and why and how it is important as a business valuation metric. On balance, the video does quite a good job of this – and hence is worthwhile watching and listening to.

Consultancy says Spain’s banks could need 60 billion euros

Today’s Detailed Commentaries Eurozone >> Spain: Consultancy says Spain’s banks could need 60 billion euros Why read: Because late Friday afternoon after the European markets closed the results of Spain’s bank audit was publicly released. It is reminiscent in some respects of the U.S. Bank Stress Test report issued earlier this year by the Federal Reserve, and you should know something about the assumptions upon which the report is based.

Spain’s federal budget announces large spending cuts

Today’s Detailed Commentaries Eurozone >> Spain: Spain’s federal budget announces large spending cuts, lengthy debate to begin, unlikely to end well You likely are being besieged by the announcement yesterday that Spain has announced a budget for next year that proposes:

Greek debt report may be delayed for U.S. political reasons

Today’s Detailed Commentaries Eurozone >> Greece: Greek debt report may be delayed for U.S. political reasons On Friday Reuters:

• quoted a senior European Union official as saying: “The Obama administration doesn’t want anything on a macroeconomic scale that is going to rock the global economy before November 6”; and,
• suggests that as a result a European Union – International Monetary Fund report on whether Greece’s debt is manageable likely will be delayed until after the U.S. November 6 Presidential election date. This in circumstances where that report had been expected as early as the first week in October.

Portuguese protests against austerity

Portugal in 2011 was, measured by GDP, the 10^th largest Eurozone economy (of 17 countries), and the 42^nd largest economy in the world. Portugal’s population is about 10.5 million.

Should country specific trade surpluses and deficits be seen as positive, neutral, or negative?

Today’s Detailed Commentaries World >> Economy: Should country specific trade surpluses and deficits be seen as positive, neutral, or negative? Why read: Because I believe that where a country runs continuous net trade deficits and increasing net cumulative trade deficits that is a bad thing in the context of the economic well-being of that country. Others disagree, and in the current economic environment where the United States – still the world’s most important economy – continuously:

How negative might U.S. QE3 announced September 13 really be?

Today’s Detailed Commentaries World >> Economy: Ray Dalio (Bridgewater Associates) on deleveraging (and other things) Why read: Ray Dalio is one of the world’s most successful money manager. He is a ‘plain talker’ and I think very good thinker. Commentary: While an hour is a long time to commit to listen to an interview, this is one lengthy interview that I suggest you take the time to listen to at least parts of it, and think about what Dalio says. In particular, you might want to listen at:

Possible importance of results of Wednesday, September 12 Netherland’s general election result

Today’s Detailed Commentaries Eurozone >> Netherlands: Possible importance of results of Wednesday, September 12 Netherland’s general election result Why read: Because last week the Netherlands held its fifth general election in ten years, and the outcome may weight on what happens in the end in the Eurozone. Commentary: In 2011 the Netherlands was the fifth largest economy in the 17 country Eurozone, and (by coincidence) the seventeenth largest economy in the world (source Wikipedia). This makes it a Eurozone country with an important voice.

Consider what game Spain may be playing

Today’s Detailed Commentaries Eurozone >> Spain: Consider what game Spain may be playing That Spain will request – likely in weeks and not months – financial aid from its eurozone partners seems a certainty. Why Spain is playing a ‘wait and see’ game is an interesting question.

Canadian auto workers – is it really ‘business as usual’?

Today’s Detailed Commentaries North America >> Canada: Canadian auto workers – is it really ‘business as usual’? In a more repetitive vein than I like, I have said a number of times in this Newsletter that I believe:

Roubini sees ‘perfect world economic storm’ – why is this new ‘news’?

Today’s Detailed Commentaries World >> Economy: Roubini sees ‘perfect world economic storm’ – why is this new ‘news’? Nouriel Roubini, speaking September 7, is reported as predicting we face years of world economic ‘gloom’ irrespective of what is decided by political leaders in the Eurozone. Roubini said this would be driven by a ‘painful process of deleveraging, and up to a decade of low economic growth. The latter is said to be supported by an OECD report released September 6 that said the G7 economies would grow at an annualized rate of 0.3% in Q3 2012 – and that there now exists worldwide “dampening global confidence, weakening trade and employment and slowing economic growth”.

Are German Parliamentarians Dutch Burghers or are they Germans?

Today’s Detailed Commentaries Eurozone >> Germany >> Greece: Are German Parliamentarians Dutch Burghers or are they Germans? Why read: Because things can happen very quickly, and it may be that ‘push’ finally may be coming to ‘shove’ in the Eurozone. Commentary: Even if ‘push’ and ‘shove’ don’t meet in the Eurozone over Greece (and Spain) in the next few weeks and months, time nonetheless seems to be shortening for Greece (and Spain), and eventually ‘push’ and ‘shove’ must meet. I have said for months now that:

Survey of ‘about to be retired’ persons, President Clinton’s Speech Last Evening

Today’s Detailed Commentaries North America >> Canada: Survey of ‘about to be retired’ persons In a survey of Canadians now between 50 – 60 years old, said to have an statistical error rate of not more than +/- 3.5%:

U.S. Vice-Presidential Candidate Paul Ryan at Tampa Republican Convention

North America >> United States: U.S. Vice-Presidential Candidate Paul Ryan at Tampa Republican Convention You may have watched and listened to Paul Ryan speak last evening at the Republican Party Convention. My comments:

World shipping crisis? Spain: where there is smoke, usually there is fire

Today’s Detailed Commentaries World >> Container Shipping: World shipping crisis? Why read: Because shipping activity arguably is a particularly good predictor of things to come in the near-term. Commentary: Apparently German shipping experts believe two-thirds of Germany’s marine fleet is in financial distress – this in circumstances where it is said that German shipping companies control 40% of the world’s container business. At the same time, there are reports that;

China and significant new stimulus, George Soros interview in June

Today’s Detailed Commentaries Asia >> China: China and significant new stimulus Overview: You might want to read this article for confirmation that China’s government seems to be increasingly concerned about growth as it announces ‘stimulus packages’. The article includes what I think is some good ‘on site’ reporting of what is going on economically in parts of China.