Ian R. Campbell

Chinese manufacturing index drops further in August

Today’s Detailed Commentaries Asia >> China: Chinese manufacturing index drops further in August Why read: To keep up to date with China’s apparent continuing decline in manufacturing outputs – and to focus on the importance of Chinese GDP growth in the context of world economic recovery or recession. Commentary: The Chinese Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) has fallen again in August to 47.8 based on preliminary figures, and Chinese inventory levels are said to be the highest on record. A PMI under 50 is taken as a signal of manufacturing contraction, whereas a PMI of over 50 is taken as a signal of manufacturing expansion.

Views from the streets of the former East Germany, Poland, and other interesting places

Today’s Detailed Commentaries European Union >> Eurozone: Views from the streets of the former East Germany, Poland, and other interesting places Why read: To learn economic ‘views from the street’ recently expressed in Copenhagen (and elsewhere in Denmark), Gdansk (Poland), Gotland and Stockholm (Sweden), Helsinki (Finland), Riga (Latvia), St. Petersburg (Russia), Tallinn (Estonia), and Warnemunde (former East Germany). Commentary: Last evening my wife and I returned to Toronto from a two week, twelve city/town trip to Europe/Russia’s Baltic Sea area. Among other highlights, we were the first North Americans to play golf at a golf course near Warnemunde, Germany – first opened for play in 2003.

High Frequency Algorithmic Trading Overviewed, Paul Krugman on deficit spending

Today’s Detailed Commentaries Financial Markets: High Frequency Algorithmic Trading Overviewed Why Read: If you participate either directly, or have capital invested in the financial markets that is managed by others, you ought to have a basic understanding what high frequency algorithmic trading is, what it isn’t, and generally how it works.

Return of manufacturing to America?

Today’s Detailed Commentaries North America >> United States: Return of manufacturing to America? A recent article overviews somewhat futuristic manufacturing methodologies referred to as:

• ‘additive manufacturing’, which uses three dimensional print electronics to manufacture products; and,
• molecular manufacturing.

Corporate interest rates thwarting competitiveness – really?

Today’s Detailed Commentaries Eurozone >> Italy: Corporate interest rates thwarting competitiveness – really? Why read: To think about whether a 2.5% change in a company’s borrowing rates ought to materially affect a company’s competitive position. Certainly that could be the ‘takeaway’ from a recent article.

Consider the timing of reporting, October 2008 and now

Today’s Detailed Commentaries World >> Statistics: Consider the timing of reporting Last week U.S. home prices in May were reported by S&P/Case-Shiller. The composite 20-city home price index, said to be ‘a key gauge of U.S. home prices’, was reported to be up 2.2% in May from April, and down 0.7% from May, 2011. This has generally been seen as good news – a possible ‘green shoot’ in the U.S. field of soggy economic ground as it were.

‘Update on Italy, The consequences of contagion?

Today’s Detailed Commentaries Eurozone >> Italy: Update on Italy Why Read: Because Italy may already be ‘the next big thing’ in the Eurozone economic crisis. Everyone needs to be aware of that, and one ‘buries their head in the sand’ on this at their own peril.

Overview of August 2 U.S. jobs report

Today’s Detailed Commentaries North America >> United States: Overview of August 2 U.S. jobs report

This morning’s U.S. jobs report, Mr. Bernanke’s postponement strategy?

Today’s Detailed Commentaries North America >> United States: This morning’s U.S. jobs report This month’s U.S. job report reported that non-farm payrolls increased by 163,000 in July, higher than the 100,000 broadly estimated. The report also said that the unemployment rate increased by 1/10^th of 1% to 8.3% in July.

A circular problem – capital spending decision-making and unemployment

Snippet #1: There is no good solution to this manufacturing job loss issue that I can think of in the current economic environment, where ‘a job in the hand may be worth as much as five jobs in the bush’. Essentially, while such behavior on the part of plant personnel is understandable – who wants to go ‘out on a limb’ to have it break off and ‘fall’ – it is counterproductive to, and inconsistent with, economic stability and perhaps recovery.

Mr. Bernanke has to know!

Important Snippets From Today’s Commentaries Snippet #1: There are two sides to every market transaction – a winner and loser. It seems to me that a critically important question is this: if the investment banks and hedge funds always win, who always loses?

Update, Canada’s economy from 10,000 feet

Important Snippets From Today’s Commentaries Snippet #1: To put Canada’s fiscal 2013 Federal deficit projection in some perspective, per capita (per person) it is about one-sixth of the current forecasted U.S. Federal deficit for the current U.S. fiscal year which ends on September 30. Snippet context: The idea here is that while no Federal Government deficit is good in the long run, the deficits the U.S. is running are clearly unsustainable. Snippet #2: To put Canada’s ‘economy from 10,000 feet’ into further perspective, Canada’s economy is very far from an isolated one in world terms. If the world economy deteriorates further, and it all signals seem to point that way, it is unlikely Canada’s Federal Government will be able to realize on their ‘return to Federal surplus’ forecasts by fiscal 2016.

Mining cost increases – negatives and positives

Today’s Detailed Commentaries World >> Mining: Mining cost increases – negatives and positives Why Read: Because as a generality mining capital and operating costs are increasing significantly, and because those who say the equity markets are under-pricing gold (and other) mining stocks can be far to general in their prognostications. That said, there are always exceptions to generalities.

Continuing UK recession, Does Nexen open the door wide?

Today’s Detailed Commentaries Europe >> United Kingdom: Continuing UK recession Why Read: Because the United Kingdom is an important world economy, and because continuing recession in the UK does not bode well. Commentary: It has been announced that:

• ‘preliminary estimates are that UK economy contracted by 0.7% in Q2 2012 as a large reduction in the construction sector impacted on this’; with
• reference to extraordinary ‘holidays’ being one reason for the decline.

Investment Advisor Criteria, What Underlies Canadian Housing Prices!

Today’s Detailed Commentaries

Financial Markets >> General: Investment Advisor Criteria
Three years ago I was asked to summarize the criteria I would want to find in an Investment Advisor. Given what I see as ongoing significant changes in the financial markets, and what I believe to be an even more disconcerting macro-economic environment than the one that prevailed in mid-2009, I decided to update my previous investment advisor ‘wish list’. Here it is.

Consider possible positives, as well as possible negatives

Today’s Detailed Commentaries World >> Mining: Consider possible positives, as well as possible negatives Mainstream and Internet media sources are increasingly, or so it seems, addressing near-term (and perhaps longer-term) problems and prospects faced by resource explorers, developers and producers in circumstances of:

The Gold Price & Quantitative Easing

If you read and accept the typical Internet headlines on the gold price you will no doubt believe that if the US Federal Reserve and other central banks introduce more quantitative easing in the weeks and months ahead that will spur the gold price to new heights. It may well, but if that does happen an important question has to be: why will that occur?

The International Monetary Fund – world economic outlook?

World >> Economy: The International Monetary Fund – world economic outlook? Yesterday the International Monetary Fund issued both its ‘World Economic Update’ and its ‘Global Financial Stability Report’. If you read the short Executive Summaries at the beginning of each, you effectively will have read them. That will take you less than 2 minutes in total, and you ought to take the time to do it – see links following this commentary.

China’s GDP growth and ‘dis-synergy’

Today’s Detailed Commentaries Asia >> China: China’s GDP growth and ‘dis-synergy’ ‘Synergy’ is a word typically thought of in ‘positive terms’, that is – 2 plus 2 equals 5. However, consider that synergy is broadly defined as “two or more things that function together to produce a result not independently obtainable” (Wikipedia), and hence can also be thought of in negative terms, as in – 2 plus 2 equals 3.

‘Spain on the brink?’, Trust and the banks

Why Read: Because economic risk in the Eurozone and elsewhere appears to be escalating, and what is said here describes what may prove to be the ‘biggest crack yet in Humpty Dumpty’s shell’. Commentary: It was some months ago that I began warning in this Newsletter that Spain was the country watch carefully in the context of its unemployment rates, federal government deficits, GDP and housing problems. At the time Spain didn’t seem to be the focus for most commentators that it was, and continues to be, for me.