Wars and volcanoes have much in common. Making predictions about a coming war can be likened to a volcanologist predicting how a volcano will behave if it erupts.
There are usually lots of warning signs that a volcano is about cook off: Small tremors, rumblings deep within the earth, more fumes and vapour, the sudden melting of snow caps, and so on. Based on experience and known facts, volcanologists can make educated guesses about how the eruption might unfold, but they have been known to make significant errors and some variables will always be difficult to anticipate.
- Wednesday, July 28, 2010
John Thompson can be reached at: johnecthompson@rogers.com
With the recent defeat of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), the distinction of being the world's most sophisticated and globalized terrorist group has passed to the Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah. Yet many observers reasonably argue that this has always been more innovative and powerful than the LTTE. Moreover, the Tigers were a limited threat to the Western World, but this is not true of Hezbollah.
My first notes were written in my office at York and Adelaide in the heart of the downtown core... and it did not seem premature to pronounce today's big demo as a big flop.
I left my apartment and headed over to Gerrard and University to watch the big demonstration march by... I've seen many larger ones, even in Toronto. My estimate was 11,000 all told; the police think it was 10,000 and even Sid Ryan apparently described it as only 10,000. We had more protestors out for the G-7 back in 1988 and had 50,000 for the 'Days of Rage' against Premier Harris. The big protest has been a flop.