by arthur Weinreb, associate Editor,
June 2, 2004
When Jack Layton won the leadership of the New Democratic Party last year he brought a visibility to the party that it had not experienced since the days of Ed Broadbent. Gone were the memories of the last leadership campaign that saw the NDP replace audrey McLaughlin with alexa McDonough and was referred to as the day that what’s her name replaced what’s her name. Jack seemed to draw attention to the party that had been withering away since the late 80s.
Going into the election the NDP could not have been in a better position. The sponsorship scandal and Paul Martin’s bad handling of it helped bolster the feeling that the Liberals have been in power too long. and the leader of the new Conservative Party of Canada, policy wonk Stephen Harper, has been slow in coming up with his party’s policies. Ontario and B.C. are particularly fertile grounds for the NDP to pick up seats in. British Californians are never averse to voting for socialists and many are upset about how Paul Martin, the democratic deficit fighter, has appointed high profile candidates to replace those who were chosen by the grassroots to run in some key ridings. and Ontario residents are still fuming at the provincial Liberals who broke almost every major campaign promise that they made and hit middle class Ontarians voters hard with a new health care premium. Dalton McGuinty is an unabashed liar and Martin will have extreme difficulty in distancing the federal party from its provincial wing.
While it is doubtful that the NDP can repeat their 1988 showing when they captured 43 seats, if they play their cards right the party will end up holding the balance of power in a minority Liberal government. and if it comes down to a battle of wills between the strong minded albeit misguided Layton and Prime Minister Dithers, the NDP could end up with seeing some of its major policies enacted. If this scenario does play out, we have to hope that the minority government doesn’t last too long or Dalton McGuinty’s tax increases will look like chump change compared to what the feds will do.
But Layton could end up losing it all if he continues to act as he did last week when he blamed Paul Martin personally for causing the deaths of homeless people. There are a lot of things that Paul Martin can be accused of like his time in Jean Chrétien’s cabinet from which he brags about the positive while claiming no knowledge of the negative, but killing people is not one of them. after Layton’s remarks about Martin and the homeless the left wing media made excuses for Jack, pointing out that it happened during the heat of a nomination meeting where wife Olivia was acclaimed as the candidate for Trinity-Spadina. Not only did Layton not withdraw his remarks, he repeated them.
Layton’s personal attack on Paul Martin has been the greatest gaffe in the election to date. It is worse than the comments made by Conservative MP Scott Reid when he said that perhaps Canada’s bilingual policies should be reexamined. Reid’s only mistake was in not taking the sage advice from former Prime Minister Kim Campbell who said that election campaigns are no time to talk about serious issues. The accusation that Paul Martin was personally responsible for the deaths of homeless people did nothing other than to show that perhaps Layton lacks the maturity to handle the power that he may in fact end up wielding.
Layton’s comments were bad from a political perspective as well. He made homelessness an issue in this campaign when it hadn’t been one. Hardcore NDPers will eat ups statements like that, but in order to do well Layton is going to have to attract the votes of dissatisfied Liberals who will not be impressed with his antics. Layton was one of those left wing Toronto city hall councillors who are responsible for the numbers of homeless that litter the streets of the city. Layton and his cronies hold the view that the homeless have a right to remain on the street and they back programs that deliver hot coffee and sleeping bags to the homeless, giving them no incentive to leave the streets. Layton’s view is that all the mentally ill and addicted homeless will all leave the streets if only the government will build homes for them. If Layton insists on continuing down this road, he is vulnerable.
Jack Layton has a good chance to rid Canada of another Liberal majority. If only he can stay on track.