as Greg Weston wrote in the Toronto Sun, the issue facing the Conservative Party is not whether they can win an election if it is called now. It is whether the party will be in a better position to win if the election is delayed until the fall, or if Paul Martin gets his way, in January 2006 after the final report of the Gomery Commission is released.
Unfortunately for those who are conservatives, or would like the country to be a tad more fiscally conservative, or who simply do not like to live in a corrupt one party state, the fortunes of the Official Opposition are not likely to get any better than they are at the moment. Justice Gomery is due to finish hearing evidence in a couple of weeks. although his interim and final reports are not due to be released until November and December respectively, the daily sound bites of testimony describing the Liberal corruption will soon cease. Without the constant stream of testimony that is damaging to the Liberals, the anger, which is practically absent in Ontario and the Maritimes, that the electorate has will sharply drop off. after all, voters have fairly short memories. Delaying the election will remove one of Harper’s strongest arguments for having his party form the government — the Liberals are simply too corrupt to continue in power.
The nomination of Peter Kent to run as a Tory in the Toronto riding of St. Paul illustrates the danger to the Conservatives in an election call is delayed. The popular broadcaster decided to run for Parliament because he’s mad as hell and doesn’t want to take it (the sleaze and corruption) any more. But Peter Kent is hardly a small "c" conservative. Pro choice and in favour of same sex marriage, Kent is clearly ensconced in the "Belinda wing" of the Conservative Party. In other words, on major issues, there is not a lot of difference between him and the Liberal incumbent, Cabinet Minister Carolyn Bennett. Delaying the election until the next fall or winter will take the steam out of his "mad as hell" platform. and the delay will give the Liberals time to pour money into the riding in an attempt to buy the riding for Bennett. Peter Kent’s chances of winning a seat in the riding of St. Paul’s will never be as good as they are right now. and Peter Kent and St. Paul is only one example of a likely scenario that will play out at least across Ontario if not the country.
In the same issue of the Toronto Sun that Greg Weston’s column appeared, a letter to the editor set out exactly what is wrong with the Conservative Party, albeit unintentionally. The letter writer wrote in part, "I urge all Canadians to not be so ignorant in claiming that the Conservative Party of Canada has a hidden agenda. If you are not sure about their policies check out their website at www.conservative.ca." With the rapid rise in prominence and respectability of the Internet there may in fact come a time when candidates cease to actively campaign or debate the issues and the electorate simply access various websites to learn what the policies of the respective parties are. But we are not there yet. a major problem that the Conservative Party faces is the absolute inability of Stephen Harper to enunciate exactly what he and his party stand for. Part of the problem is that, much like the Liberals, the Conservatives stand for anything and everything. as bright as he is, Stephen Harper is just not the person to be able to tell people, especially those in Ontario, where he stands on the issues and convince them why they should vote for his party. Many pundits have said that Paul Martin, having run on in 2004 on the platform that Stephen Harper has a secret agenda, will not be able to use that again. But he can and he is and much like last year, he will be successful at it. Harper was unable to counter the fact that he had a secret agenda in the last election and will be unable to do so in the next one.
and yes, unlike the Natural Governing Party Harper’s getting absolutely no help from the mainstream media who are in love with the Liberals. That’s not an excuse — it simply means that the Conservative Party has to try harder.
The sooner the election is held, the more likely the Conservative Party will win although probably only a minority. and if they lose, the Tories will be closer to finding a new leader who hopefully can tell Canadians exactly what that party stands for. Win or lose, it would be in the Conservative Party’s best interests to go to the polls as quickly as possible.