Nothing concrete is ever gained by sitting around and pondering what would have happened "if". But sometimes you just can’t help wondering how things might be different had something significant either happened or failed to take place.
Suppose that the "Unite the Right" movement had never gotten off the ground and the Progressive Conservatives and Canadian alliance had remained separate political parties. What would have been the likely effect on the political makeup of Canada when the revelations of fraud, theft and corruption came spewing forth from the Gomery Commission or had surfaced in some other way?
There can be little doubt that had things gone downhill for the Liberals as they have now, there would have been a government in waiting. The Progressive Conservatives, once a major player in Canadian politics, was reduced to two seats in the election that brought Jean Chrétien to power in 1993. although Kim Campbell was the wrong leader at the wrong time, the demise of the once mighty party of John a. MacDonald occurred as a result of Canadians’ visceral hatred of Brian Mulroney. But the strong dislike of Mulroney and his party would have waned over time; now the mention of Mulroney’s name hardly elicits any response from Canadian voters. The decline of the PC’s was further exacerbated under Joe Clark’s second stint as leader when he spoke and acted like he was the leader of a great party when in fact his Tories were battling the NDP for fourth place in the House of Commons. Under new leadership the PCs would have rebounded. Were they around today, they would do well against the corrupt Liberals in atlantic Canada, an area where they have always had some strength. and the Progressive Conservatives would have been able to supply a credible choice to Quebec federalists who felt betrayed by the Liberals as a result of the sponsorship scandal. The PCs would also do well with all of those squeamish Ontarians who don’t like the Liberals, think that they should all be in jail, but who will vote Liberal anyway because they are scared stiff of Stephen Harper’s supposed secret agenda. In short, were the old Progressive Conservatives still around there would be none of this, "I hate the Liberals but will vote for them anyway".
Were the Canadian alliance still around, social conservatives would still have a voice within a major political party. They would not be required to keep their social conservative beliefs to themselves lest they anger those who do not agree with them. Were the Canadian alliance still here, we might actually see a proper debate on issues such as same sex marriage. The Ca would never be in a position to obtain power; they would of necessity become the NDP of the right; able to influence the political landscape but not to govern. Most of Canada’s major social programs originated with the CCF/NDP and were implemented by the Liberals. In fact most of what Paul Martin calls "Canadian values" such as medicare, only came into being because of the socialists. In the early 1990s, when many countries including Canada went to the right and made reducing the deficit a major economic policy, the Liberals borrowed policies from the Reform Party just as they had from the NDP.
Had the merger not taken place and the Liberals, because of their corruption and the poor handling of the government by Paul Martin, Canada may still have ended up with, as Jack Layton calls it, the first NDP budget in Canadian history. But it would have been equally possible that we would have ended up with a Canadian alliance budget or a Progressive Conservative one.
True small "c" Canadian conservatives would be much better off today had the merger not have taken place. and more importantly, the Liberals would be well on their way to at least temporary oblivion had the old PCs and alliance still have been around.
and by the way, who was it that was so instrumental in forging the bonds between the Progressive Conservatives and the Canadian alliance? Why it was the darling of the Liberal Party, Belinda Stronach.