The prime minister has promised to call an election within 30 days of Justice Gomery handing down his second and final report that is scheduled to be released on February 1. But this week’s release of the first report of the Gomery Commission has fueled speculation that an election might be called sooner. While Gomery’s findings hardly came as a shock to those Canadians who kept abreast of the commission’s hearings, the report’s release did change the political landscape. The facts concerning what occurred during the sponsorship scandal were taken out of the realm of partisan political accusations and turned into the findings of a formally constituted commission.
So, will there be a quick election? In a word, no.
To begin with there is the practical problem of the time of year. although the impracticalities of winter elections have always been exaggerated, calling or forcing an election close to Christmas would be political suicide for the party that set the wheels in motion. Once January rolls around, the parties might as well wait until February 1.
There has been some speculation that Paul Martin himself might engineer the fall of his government, but this won’t happen for two reasons. Firstly, although the Liberals are consistently leading in the polls, it doesn’t look good for them to win a majority. The mighty Liberals will allow their leaders one minority government but not two. If the Liberals fail to gain a majority in the next election, Paul Martin will be hopping on one of his Canada Steamship Line vessels and sailing off into the sunset.
Secondly, the final Gomery Report will recommend procedures to prevent what happened in the sponsorship scandal from reoccurring. Martin will use the remaining time to implement the exact procedures and controls that Gomery will recommend. Martin will gloat that those very same changes have already been made and he and his “new” Liberal Party deserve re-elected and with a majority. Unfortunately, there are enough sheeple loyal to the Liberals to give it to him.
If an election happens before Martin’s tentative date, the opposition will have to bring the government down. Gilles Duceppe would love to have an election right now. While residents of other provinces, especially those in Ontario who will “tsk tsk” about the corruption while heading off to the polls to vote the Liberals back in, Quebeckers are mad. It’s hard to envision how Duceppe and the Bloc could ever be in a better position.
Stephen Harper has principles if nothing else and he and his Tories would love to dump the Liberals. Unfortunately, too many Canadians believe Harper has nothing else and are reluctant to give the Conservatives a mandate to govern. Harper however must realize that he is not likely to significantly improve his fortunes between now and next spring and would not be adverse to supporting a non confidence motion and forcing an election.
This brings us to Jack Layton and the NDP. Support for another political party should come naturally like love but if you’re not getting any you can always go out and buy it. and Paul Martin knows that he can always buy Jack. You want doctors who practice private medicine to be subject to the death penalty? Okay Jack, sounds good; whatever you say, Jack.
Of course Jack Layton and his parties are not really like prostitutes or “sex trade workers” as they love to call them. Hookers at least know enough to get the money up front; Jack sells out for promises that are promised in the future when the 67-year-old Martin will consider himself lucky to be breathing, let alone prime minister.
In many ways Layton and his party are worse than the Liberals. When he’s not condescendingly lecturing the Liberals on ethics and corruption, he’s running over to 24 Sussex to try and make a deal with Martin. When it comes to “the end justifies the means” setting up a sponsorship program with no controls in an attempt to save the country can’t hold a candle to labelling the Liberals as “corrupt” and then running to support it. Jack Layton sure is a piece of work.
as long as the NDP are needed to prop up the Liberals, Jack and his boys and girls will be there. The election will come when Paul Martin said it will come--next spring at the earliest.