as is usual during the course of an election campaign, we are inundated with polls, predictions and pundits telling us what Parliament will look like after the January 23 election.
It’s early in the campaign and the out and out fighting for power is not expected to begin until after the New Year. as accurate as the prognosticating can be, barring completely unforeseen circumstances it is difficult to see how any party contesting the election can win enough seats to form a majority government.
The Conservatives will not be able to make a breakthrough in the province of Quebec. Paul Martin’s playing the unity card in Quebec will likely backfire if it has any effect at all and the fruits of that tactic will go to the Bloc Quebecois. The increased support that the Bloc is receiving is as a result of Liberal Party corruption that took place in that province. To tell voters to vote Liberal to prevent separation where any increase in separation was caused by the actions of the Liberal Party of Canada-Quebec borders on the absurd.
Ontario is the province where most elections are decided. although the Tories may pick up some seats, there are too many Ontarians who are simply too afraid to desert their thoroughly corrupt but beloved Liberals. There was simply too much praise and applause for Paul Martin’s solving of the violent crime problem in Toronto by banning the use of handguns to think that the Liberals could suffer a significant loss in Ontario. It doesn’t appear that there is going to be a large blue wave sweeping the province any time soon. and the NDP are giving the Conservatives a run for their money in British Columbia.
Unless Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party of Canada totally implode, it is difficult to see how the Liberals could do any better than they did in 2004. and Harper is running a much better campaign than he and his party did a year and a half ago. The Tories have come out with policies that, whether the beer swelling and popcorn masses like them or not pretty well stop Martin and the Liberals from painting the Conservatives as having a "hidden agenda".
as it stands now, we are looking at another Liberal minority although there is a real possibility that the Conservatives could win the most seats on January 23. In the end, which ever of the two parties ends up with the most seats will likely be determined by just a few key ridings.
Contrary to what many people think, under our system of government the party that wins the most seats does not automatically become the governing party. Paul Martin is the prime minister and will remain so unless one of two events takes place. If the Conservatives win more seats than the Liberals, Paul Martin can go to the Governor General on January 24 and tells her he can no longer govern and resign in which case she will tell Stephen Harper to form a government. Or, and the odds are astronomical that this would happen, Paul Martin continues to try and govern even though his party does not have the most seats. If it is apparent that he cannot govern, the Governor General will then ask the Conservative leader to form a government.
What makes these unusual times is that not only do we have prime minister, who believes that only his party can govern Canada, but we have a leader of the NDP who can clearly be bought. Like he did last spring for a measly few billion, Paul Martin could buy the support of the NDP, which, provided the combined Liberals and NDP have more seats than the Tories, would be enough to keep Canada merrily dithering along. Martin might have to make Jack the finance minister, but hey, he’s already passed a budget; might as well let him have the title.
Both the Bloc and the Conservatives would be reluctant to try and topple a Liberal/NDP government quickly even if they could. They wouldn’t want to risk the voter backlash of an immediate spring or fall election. and if the Bloc Quebecois aren’t going to get their own country they could live quite happily in Canada with the leftist policies that will flow from a Liberal/NDP government.
The above scenario is unlikely. But there is no 100 per cent guarantee that by winning the most seats, a Conservative minority would get to govern.