In the bad old days of the Cold War, when the US and the Soviet Union stood toe to toe brandishing nuclear weapons at each other, the doctrine of mutually assured destruction (MaD) crept into our lexicon as the basis of the doctrine of nuclear deterrence.
Today, weíve moved beyond MaD to nuclear armed terror states (NUTS), where its dictates no longer apply.
The basic principle of MaD, that each side would be utterly devastated in a nuclear exchange, insured that no rational leader would order a nuclear attack on the other similarly armed adversary, and prevented nuclear conflict for the period of the Cold War.
This tenet governed the actions of Khrushchev and Kennedy in the Cuban Missile Crisis when the Soviet leader withdrew offensive nuclear armed missiles from Cuba and Kennedy withdrew missiles of a similar nature from Turkey--thus cooling tempers, avoiding further escalation and mutual destruction.
With the addition of England, France and China and later India and Pakistan into the mix, this maxim still held, even in the secular religious states due to the relative rationality of their leadership, the rise and influence of their middle classes and their ability to maintain the required level of security over the warheads and associated materials.
The possible acquisition of nuclear weapons by North Korea represents the first time an openly unstable leadership has obtained weapons of such power. However, though viewed as somewhat unstable, Kim Jong Il does not seem to possess a messianic complex. Rather he seems, on the other hand, to be too narcissistic to enjoy a good solid round of absolute atomic annihilation, wiping his legacy and his pictures from the planet forever.
In the meantime, Iran is fast becoming the first NUTS, with far fewer scruples than Kim. and what is becoming clearer is the full range of actions that such a state can undertake.
First of all, the MaD doctrine and associated gaming theories are out the window. With the long Islamist adherence to the ideas of martyrdom and with the most rabid of clerics controlling the apparatus of the military and government, from the weaponeers to the mining of uranium, from submarines to gaseous diffusion, Iran can now be viewed as being on the verge of becoming an atomically armed terrorist state, where the middle class, common sense and honest brokerage will have no place in the decisions of the rulers and gaming scenarios no longer apply.
Secondly, the mullahs will view nuclear weapons as providing them with an impenetrable protective umbrella for enhanced recruitment, training and export of terror. Theyíll come to believe, and perhaps rightly so, that nuclear weapons will guarantee their internal safety and keep the meddling Crusaders out of their private affairs. as a result, terror groups will find a safer haven to practice their deadly mischief. Will Iran agree to supply them with homemade nukes for use abroad?
Iranís President, Mr. ahmadinejad, has called for the removal of Israel from the face of the earth. Nuclear weapons will provide him with the bulldozer to do so and to intimidate a considerable portion of Europe and the Middle East while heís at it.
Lastly, with dreams of martyrdom dancing in their heads and with a theocracy deaf to the middle class when the chips are down, what is to prevent the Iranian leadership from launching a nuclear attack on Israel or Europe or any other nearby state because they can? In what way will they fear retaliation if they do?
In the past the world has always left the dirty jobs like this to Israel. The Israelis knocked out the Iraqi reactors in June of 1981, before they went critical to insure there would be no collateral damage for anybody to bitch about, even though nobody else was prepared to do a damned thing about them.
But Iran is so big and her nuclear facilities are dispersed over such a large geographic area that it will be impossible for Israel to accomplish this feat, let alone try. If it must be done, another coalition of the willing, the United States, Great Britain and australia, must accomplish this thankless task, with a few hearty hand clasps from other European countries who privately agree with the purpose, publicly fear the involvement and canít afford the price of admission.
President ahmadinejad and the extremist ruling clerics, will be right according to the Koran, dead right. They will greet the cruise missiles or the nuclear flash with the smiles and equanimity of the true martyrs, forsaking their countrymen for a honeyed paradise.
Sadly, as a result of the hand wringing and the pussyfooting around by the fops and candy men at the UN and a lily livered and pacifist Europe, the radical Islamic bomb will be a reality and may be coming to a country near you very soon.
and who are the nuts, the mullahs or us for letting it go this far?
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