Probably not.
There are two weeks left to go before Canadians go to the polls and anything can happen. as much as there can ever be certainty in these matters, it appears that barring some explosive unseen event, the next government will be another minority.
It is unlikely that voters in Quebec will leave the Bloc and go to the Liberal Party where unlike the rest of Canada, there is outrage about the sponsorship scandal. Quebeckers have never warmed to the new Conservative Party and that is unlikely to change in the next two weeks. This fact alone makes it hard to imagine that either of the front running parties could muster enough votes to gain a majority.
Many in the Liberal Party would probably be happier to see the next parliament led by Stephen Harper than to have a parliament similar to the last one. There are exceptions to this of course; one of them being Paul Martin who will not be a happy camper if he ends up as leader of the Official Opposition. He's 67 years old and would like to leave the office that he sought for so long, gracefully. While there will be a serious move to replace Martin if a minority government of either stripe is voted in, his departure will be hastened if the Tories form the next government.
Paul's friends would be none too pleased with a Harper-led minority. The Earnscliffe gang and others who depend not on Liberal Party largesse but upon their friendship with Paul Martin for their power will be gone quicker than John Gomery can say "culture of entitlement" if their boy ends up on the opposition benches.
But what about the rest of the Liberal Party power players? They would probably be happier if Harper won a minority.
Despite the fact that the Liberal Party thinks that they are the only ones who are capable of governing Canada, as laudable as that notion seems, it's all about power. and power is not just having the leader of the party wearing the title of "The Right Honourable" or having their leader parade around the world representing Canada. Power means control; being able to run things exactly how they want to. and being in control is not having a weak and ineffectual leader standing around with a dumb expression on his face while Jack Layton dictates what is to be contained in the next budget.
The Liberal Party would be better off if they lost the upcoming election. It would give them time to regroup. They would be able to get rid of the bumbling Martin quicker and replace him with someone who was preferably nowhere near Ottawa when the sponsorship and other ever mounting scandals took place.
although Stephen Harper has run a good and almost flawless campaign, he hasn't gone up in the polls so much as Martin and the Liberals have fallen. The Liberals are devoid of new ideas and have resorted, by and large, to responding to policies announced by the Conservatives. although the sponsorship scandal was practically a non-issue at the start of the campaign, the almost daily revelations of new scandals, especially the one involving Ralph Goodale and income trusts, have led to the decline of the Liberals in the polls. That being said, Stephen Harper has still not warmed to a lot Canadians. although the number of Canadians that find him scary has decreased, that hasn't translated into solid support for the Conservative leader. He is not Brian Mulroney who was able to banish the Liberals by winning two majority governments.
a minority Conservative government will be able to hold on to power for awhile. Despite protestations to the contrary, no party wants to see another quick election. The Tories have issues such as ethics, violent crime and others that could allow a minority government to function for some time before another election would be forced. That would give the Liberals a chance to reorganize, hold a leadership convention and do what Liberals think that they were put on the earth to do--lead Canada with a majority government.
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