It is hard to know if much will be accomplished when the 39th Parliament begins next week. But one thing is certain — it will be entertaining to watch.
It's been a long time, at least since Canadian politics has been as much fun as it promises to be when the new parliament begins to sit. We would probably have to go back to the 1960s and the heady days of Trudeaumania to find as much political excitement. Even the last election campaign was fun. When it began last November it promised to be a dull repeat of the 2004 election with the Liberals holding on to a minority government by scaring Canadians (mainly Ontarians) with what evil things George Bush-loving Stephen Harper would do if he ever obtained power. Then the fun began as Paul Martin began to deteriorate and earn his legacy, which is being remembered as one of the weakest prime ministers in Canadian history.
Even the Liberal leadership race promises to be fun to watch. For the first time since 1968, a new Liberal leader will be chosen for reasons other than it was it was their turn to lead. We can look forward to such spectacles as Belinda Stronach debate Michael Ignatieff over Canada's foreign policy regarding Iraq and afghanistan. While those two are fighting it out, fiddler ashley McIsaac will probably come up through the middle and become the leader of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition. No matter how you look at it — fun times ahead.
The last time that the Liberals lost power federally was in 1984. But things were different then. The Liberals knew that the country was fed up after 16 years of Pierre Trudeau and even though their then leader John Turner underperformed, they were prepared to lose power. as arrogant as Pierre Trudeau was, Liberal arrogance has grown geometrically since then. Unlike 1984, the Liberals can't quite get it into their heads that they are not the government any more.
Two issues will be front and centre after parliament begins. These are the reduction in the GST and daycare.
The Liberals will oppose the Conservative plan to reduce the GST on the grounds that the government will, by necessity, be forced to cancel previously planned Liberal cuts to personal income taxes. But there is a limit to how far the Liberals can actually take this. Canadians now expect the GST to be reduced to the point that many purchases of big ticket items have been put off. and the opposition can hardly campaign during the next election with the slogan, "Save the GST; vote Liberal". They'll hem and haw a bit on the matter and that will be it.
The issue that will cause the most dissention during the upcoming parliament will be daycare. The governing Liberals promised a national daycare program in 1993, 1997, 2000 and 2004, but they were really going to, no fooling, institute it this time around if only Canadians hadn't put Scary Stephen in office. Now the country is crumbling — doomed!!!
But the once mighty Liberals are now boxed in. It has nothing to do with the fact that they are currently leaderless; having no leader is a step up from being led by Paul Martin or some of the 2nd tier candidates that will run for the leadership. Of all of the parties in parliament, the Liberals have the most to lose in a quick election.
The NDP will get what they will get no matter when the next election is called. But both the Bloc and the Liberals are in the same position; the great surprise of the last election was that the Tories picked up six seats in Quebec. With Harper's overtures to that province if he plays his cards right as he did during the last campaign, the Tories could end up with more seats. Both the Bloc and the Liberals stand to lose big time if this happens. The Bloc at least can argue that the Conservatives will keep Quebec's daycare program and in any event, it will all be moot when Quebec becomes a sovereign nation. The bad news for the Liberals is that if they force a quick election and Stephen Harper makes further gains in Quebec, they could be on the opposition benches for a long time to come. The Liberals will huff and they'll puff but they won't dare bring the House down; at least not in the next few months.
On Monday, the House of Commons will elect a new speaker and on Tuesday, Governor General Michaëlle Jean will read the Speech from the Throne. and then — let the games begin.
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