a poll prepared by Strategic Counsel for the Globe and Mail and CTV and released last week found that 39 per cent of Canadians would vote for the Conservative Party. This is three percentage points higher than those that actually voted for the party in the January 23rd election. The Liberals were favoured by 29 per cent of the respondents, while the NDP came in at 14 per cent. Perhaps more significant was the fact that 56 per cent of those who participated in the poll stated that the five main priorities of the government were either similar to or identical with their own priorities. The poll was conducted between april 6th and 9th and questioned 1,000 Canadians. The results are deemed to be accurate within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The Chairman of Strategic Counsel, allan Gregg, attributed the results as a result of the "honeymoon effect" where right after an election is held, "people's instincts are to feel good about the decision that was made even if they did not participate in the decision".
The desire of Canadians to give their new government a chance undoubtedly partially explains the poll results, but it is simplistic to think that that is the only or major reason for Harper's gain. as far as honeymoons are concerned, Harper's was pretty well over minutes before it began on February 6. While the country was waiting for the guy who was going to bring integrity back to government to be sworn into office, we learned that his cabinet ministers included David Emerson, who had won re-election exactly two weeks before as a Liberal and Michael Fortier who was not only not elected but elevated to the Senate so he could head the important Ministry of Public Works. Some honeymoon.
Stephen Harper is doing well in the polls because he has actually taken action. after 13 years of hearing a lot of talk about the same old, same old (child care being the most prominent) the country came to expect just talk. Harper was quick to act on certain matters whereas Jean Chrétien would only act if the polls were right and Paul Martin was simply incapable of acting. Harper not only talked about how that his government would restore Canada's place in the world, he followed through. Canada became the first country after Israel to cut off financial aid to the Palestinian government led by the terrorist group, Hamas. and the Tories lived up to their promise to designate the Tamil Tigers as a terrorist group. The Liberals refused to ban the LTTE, a group that pretty well invented suicide bombing, killed civilians, assassinated politicians and forcibly recruited child soldiers, because it might upset the "fragile peace process". Everyone, of course knew that the Liberals were more concerned with the effect that banning the Tigers would have on a few Liberal ridings in Scarborough than they were about acts of terror and deaths of Sri Lankans.
It's easy for anyone to say that they "support the troops" in time of conflict. Even the pacifist NDP can utter those words. But Harper showed his support for the Canadian men and women serving in afghanistan by not just going there but by spending two full days in the war torn country. Whenever high ranking members of the former government went to one of the world's hotspots, it was just for a quick photo/op. It is hard for anyone to suggest that Stephen Harper's respect for the troops is not genuine.
Harper has done things that many Canadians, even those who do not support his Conservative Party's policies, have been pleased with. He has earned their respect even if he'll never get their votes. The days of a prime minister dithering and dawdling are over — it's no wonder the Tories are rising in the polls.
Paul Martin and the Liberals spent two elections demonizing the Conservatives as a party that would lock up gays and criminalize abortion. While these tactics worked successfully with many in the mushy middle the longer the government remains in power without becoming truly "evil", the more support the Tories will get.
It's nice to speak about honeymoons — but that's not the total story.
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