By Robert Laurie —— Bio and Archives--November 1, 2016
American Politics, News | Comments | Back To Full Article
Yesterday, Trump spoke in Grand Rapids Michigan at a hastily organized rally that, with only two days’ notice, managed to draw over 6,000 attendees - on a holiday. Polls in Michigan have been tightening and Trump has been spending more time there. Recent Fox2/Mitchell polling shows Clinton's lead shrinking to 6 or 7 points from 11 - even before the Comey announcement - and many pollsters are quietly suggesting that the state is heading into "toss up" territory. I'm not sure I buy that. Most polls still paint the state solidly blue, and a Trump victory there is still what I'd consider a long shot. So, you may ask yourself, "why is he so focused on it?"
I have a theory.
The idea that Trump is about to win is predicated on the belief that the pollsters are getting it wrong. It's not that the polling is rigged as much as it is that they're simply underestimating the Trump vote. The hope is that Trump will grab a few bitter Democrats, a slightly larger-than-normal portion of the black vote, and will overperform with working class whites.
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