OK, everyone, before we get started you should enjoy a massive grain of salt.
About six weeks ago we began hearing rumors that Trump was doing surprisingly well in states that had, at least since 1992, proven extremely difficult for the GOP to crack. Among them were Michigan, Pennsylvania, and ...New York. No one was arguing that a Trump win in these states would be likely, but the usual political thinking suggests that, if he can keep things close in such hostile territory, true swing states and red states should be a lock.