There are 33 seats up for reelection from the regular rotation of six-year terms, plus three seats up as special elections. Of the 36 seats up for grabs, the Democrats are defending 21 seats and the Republicans defending 15.
GOP leaders almost seem to be gloating that they are in such a sweet spot, but really, is it because they had such a terrible 2008 election, when they lost eight net.
The reasonable consensus is that Republicans will, despite their best efforts, win six or seven seats net putting them in control of the upper chamber. Rather than handicap the individual races, it is interesting instead to look at the changes coming in the Senate’s leadership.
On the Republican side, the two men at the top are both up for reelection and both facing serious primary challengers.
Kentucky’s Minority Leader A. Mitchell McConnell faces Matthew Bevin in the May 20 primary. Bevin, whose family owns a historic bell company, which was until a tragic fire the last active bell factory in the United States. Bevin is supported by the Tea Party and conservatives, but is still trailing McConnell.
McConnell is reviled by conservatives on Capitol Hill
If McConnell survives the Bevin challenge, he will likely face Alison L. Grimes, a harsh liberal with little appeal. The primary is the fight.
Make no mistake, McConnell is reviled by conservatives on Capitol Hill, who all noticed that after betraying them during the last government shutdown, he took home a $2 billion dam project as his thank you from the Democrats in the final deal.
If McConnell fails to keep his job, the favorite to succeed him as the Republican leader is Texas’ Sen. John Cornyn, the GOP Whip—a man fighting to keep his own job.
Cornyn is notorious with Capitol Hill conservatives
Cornyn is notorious with Capitol Hill conservatives for his practice of talking like a bold conservative in Texas and then working behind the scenes to undermine conservative initiatives, such as convincing other Republican senators to dial back efforts to end ObamaCare—while running ads denouncing the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act.
His most blatant broach of collegiality, was when he shopped negative information about his Lone Star GOP colleague Sen. R. Edward “Ted” Cruz to reporters.
In the March 4 primary, Cornyn faces Rep. Stephen E. Stockman, as well as businessman Dwayne Stovall and a gaggle of others. If Cornyn fails to garner more than 50 percent of the vote, he and the number two vote getter will face off in a May 11 run off. Recent polling shows Cornyn hovering in the 40s and Stockman as his most likely run off challenger.
In the ramp up to the primary, many mainstream conservatives, those with close ties to the Republican Party or business interests, have ignored the Texas primary.
Few people had heard of Stovall and Stockman’s last minute surprise entry into the race, which caught people off guard, since he did not have any statewide campaign plans or infrastructure in place.
The real, deep reason people have stayed away is that if McConnell loses, Cornyn could be the new boss of a Republican-controlled Senate. #awkward.
If there is a run off, no conservatives will have the excuse to ignore a change to pay back one of their most bitter foes.
Even if McConnell wins, Cornyn will still be the GOP Whip and in every way more powerful, having stared down the Tea Party and the conservatives in a head-to-head fight.
John R. Thune: committed and sincere conservative
If either man or both go down, there is little doubt that the next GOP man up is South Dakota’s Sen. John R. Thune. Thune, a strikingly handsome man, has pulled off the great trick: remain a committed and sincere conservative, while serving in party leadership.
From restoring gun rights, to investigating the Obama administration, Thune has led with his heart and kept his heart on the right side of his chest.
The other next man up will be Utah’s Sen. Michael S. Lee. Lee, a two-time law clerk for Justice Samuel Alito, is the third senator in the current troika driving the conservative agenda that includes both Cruz and Kentucky’s Sen. Randall H. Paul.
If Lee does not step up into leadership, he most certainly will take over the chamber’s conservative bloc, the Senate Steering Committee, from Pennsylvania’s Sen. Patrick J. Toomey. Toomey is still trying to figure out why he let Republican hacks on his staff convince him to support President Barack Obama’s new gun restrictions—it was a move that cost him plenty.
Neil W. McCabe——
Bio and Archives
Neil W. McCabe is the editor of Human Event’s “Guns & Patriots” e-letter and was a senior reporter at the Human Events newspaper. McCabe deployed with the Army Reserve to Iraq for 15 months as a combat historian. For many years, he was a reporter and photographer for “The Pilot,” Boston’s Catholic paper. He was also the editor of two free community papers, “The Somerville (Mass.) News and “The Alewife (North Cambridge, Mass.).”
