After Alaska--Reproachment or Rapprochement?

Trump’s domestic politics

For the US president, Alaska delivered something of incomparable value – political capital. The issue of relations with Russia has become contentious due to an internal political struggle in the US. One camp insists on preserving an ideological monopoly at all costs – the Cold War mentality of Russophobia. The other argues for pragmatism--Realpolitik. Trump belongs to the latter--and needed a visible, demonstrable success to deflect his critics.

The tête-à-tête with Putin provided that moment. The US president strengthened his position at home, demonstrating that he can engage with Moscow directly while sidelining Western Europe. Foreign policy has always been a Russian interest, while domestic politics was favored in America. Each man departed Alaska with what he needed most.

What comes next?

Now that Putin and Trump have somewhat steadied the bilateral relationship, American–Russian rivalry could now enter a new phase. While it will remain acute, the summit demonstrated something unequivocal: Despite British and EU efforts to alienate Moscow by obfuscating an end to the Ukraine conflict (primarily as a distraction from problematic issues at home), Russia will not be marginalized from global economic and political affairs.

The world in its majority beyond the West does not seek the collapse of Russia. What it wants is stability, and recognition that global order cannot exist without Moscow being part of that conversation--consider the countries of the BRICS. Anchorage was a victory for Russia, and conceivably the US, if it follows Trump’s lead by further engaging with Moscow.

For Russia, it was proof that resolve and statesmanlike diplomatic decorum can bend the world’s most powerful adversary toward dialogue. For Trump, the summit provides political capital for his political war at home. The summit offers the potential to write a new chapter in Russian-American relations--one of rapprochement rather than reproachment.

Britain and the EU – Supplicants of Washington

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz recently stated with great clarity the current geopolitical situation concerning the EU’s role in resolving the Ukraine war:

“…the decisive role in the conflict, until further notice, will be played by the United States of America…we should also not overestimate ourselves.”

Monday’s summit in Washington shows that Zelensky and his British-EU backers are playing roles subordinate to the American leader.

The gathering at the White House featuring President Trump, Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky and several senior British and EU figures ended without any announcements designed to incite a media frenzy. Yet, a high-stakes diplomacy is unfolding over Washington’s now superior role in resolving the Ukraine conflict.

The lack of decisive outcomes suggests that the real work is happening behind the scenes. Trump’s behavior – in particular his decision not to make public Kiev’s or Brussels’s messaging in the post-meeting briefings – is a “statement,” indeed. He is asserting his control over the narrative, indicating that he remains unpersuaded by British/EU and Ukrainian arguments for continued Western entanglement in the conflict.

Post-summit diplomacy

The summit and the diplomatic moves surrounding it are a tug-of-war, with Moscow seeking to remove Washington’s involvement in the conflict, while Brussels and Kiev attempt to keep the US at least anchored on their side.

The absence of new sanctions or pressure on Russia following last Friday’s Alaskan summit suggests Moscow’s position is gaining traction. Trump’s comments have even shifted from promoting a ceasefire to advocating direct peace talks towards a permanent agreement – a position consistent with the Kremlin.

British-EU leaders and Zelensky came to Washington to try to reinforce Trump’s alignment. Their goal was to persuade Trump to strengthen sanctions, maintain arms shipments and ensure Ukraine has the security architecture they want.

Thus far, they have met reticence from the US president except for the security arrangement which Putin had already offered. Trump, from the outset of the meeting, appeared to put Britain, the EU and Ukraine on the defensive, signaling that their influence is limited.

Security guarantees

The centerpiece of the negotiations will, ultimately, hinge on security guarantees for Ukraine – a deeply contested issue. Moscow is adamant that any meaningful guarantee depends on Ukrainian neutrality and demilitarization. In contrast, Kiev and its British-EU backers are pushing for a reinforced Ukrainian military, possible NATO deployment on Ukrainian soil or even eventual NATO accession.

These efforts by the British and the Europeans appear desperate, even naïve – given that Russia is prevailing and slowly but steadily advancing on the battlefield. And as Russia makes military gains, Kiev’s and Brussels’ room for maneuvering in the negotiations narrows.

Moscow, for its part, remains resolute. After the meeting with Zelensky and the Europeans, Trump held a 40-minute phone conversation with Russian President Putin. Judging by the information released about the substance of the call, Trump made no demands and Putin offered no concessions. They spoke of continuing direct Russia-Ukraine talks. They also discussed “elevating” the level of the talks, and according to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, present at Monday’s meeting, direct talks between Putin and Zelensky could take place within two weeks.

It is clear that the Kremlin remains steadfast in its long-held position for peace, while continuing to steadily advance in Ukraine on the ground.

In the end, the Washington ‘gathering’ may have offered neither ceremony nor a spectacular outcome, but it was loaded with geopolitical subtext: a contest over whether the US acquiesces to Ukraine and its backers or continues to shift towards a more transactional, realist posture. The British-EU-Kiev contingent, recognizing its diminishing leverage, is attempting to reclaim the narrative as the military and political “battlefield,” at least for now, is clearly tilting against it.

In the end, the critical question of future US-Russia relations remains a choice--reproachment or rapprochement.

Security guarantees

The centerpiece of the negotiations will, ultimately, hinge on security guarantees for Ukraine – a deeply contested issue. Moscow is adamant that any meaningful guarantee depends on Ukrainian neutrality and demilitarization. In contrast, Kiev and its British-EU backers are pushing for a reinforced Ukrainian military, possible NATO deployment on Ukrainian soil or even eventual NATO accession.

These efforts by the British and the Europeans appear desperate, even naïve – given that Russia is prevailing and slowly but steadily advancing on the battlefield. And as Russia makes military gains, Kiev’s and Brussels’ room for maneuvering in the negotiations narrows.

Moscow, for its part, remains resolute. After the meeting with Zelensky and the Europeans, Trump held a 40-minute phone conversation with Russian President Putin. Judging by the information released about the substance of the call, Trump made no demands and Putin offered no concessions. They spoke of continuing direct Russia-Ukraine talks. They also discussed “elevating” the level of the talks, and according to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, present at Monday’s meeting, direct talks between Putin and Zelensky could take place within two weeks.

It is clear that the Kremlin remains steadfast in its long-held position for peace, while continuing to steadily advance in Ukraine on the ground.

In the end, the Washington ‘gathering’ may have offered neither ceremony nor a spectacular outcome, but it was loaded with geopolitical subtext: a contest over whether the US acquiesces to Ukraine and its backers or continues to shift towards a more transactional, realist posture. The British-EU-Kiev contingent, recognizing its diminishing leverage, is attempting to reclaim the narrative as the military and political “battlefield,” at least for now, is clearly tilting against it.

In the end, the critical question of future US-Russia relations remains a choice -- reproachment or rapprochement.