Anti-abortion groups expecting pretty big things, and quickly, from Trump

The pro-life community has a history of expecting more from pro-life presidents than said presidents can actually deliver. Even Ronald Reagan - who is probably tied with George W. Bush as the most pro-life president in American history - couldn't actually achieve much in terms of actual policy success because he had a defiant Congress and the limits imposed by Roe v. Wade. W was at least able to ban partial-birth abortion. But even though Republican presidents have had seven Supreme Court appointments since 1980, they haven't been able to put a majority on the Court to overturn Roe

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A serious obstacle to real change on abortion policy, of course, is the fact that Roe merely took away the rights of states to decide whether they would allow abortion. If Roe disappeared tomorrow, that wouldn't make abortion illegal anywhere - at least not automatically. Each state would have the right to decide if it wanted to ban the practice, but none would be forced to do so. This is why the high hopes of pro-life activists are so often dashed when a pro-life president takes office. It's not for lack of willingness. It's just that this is an issue on which a president's hands are extraordinarily tied. So is the pro-life community dealing in reality by hoping that Donald Trump - who declared himself pro-choice across the board as recently as 1999 - is going to come up big for them? They certainly seem to think so:

While there are big-ticket items on their wish list like filling the vacancy on the Supreme Court, there are also a range of abortion policy changes the Trump administration can make on its own. Those actions include removing ObamaCare's requirements for religious organizations to cover contraception in their insurance plans, easing the Obama administration rules that make it harder to cut funding from Planned Parenthood, and preventing foreign aid dollars from being used for abortions.

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The high expectations are a change from what's been a rocky relationship at times between Trump and abortion opponents. Trump, who said he was “pro-choice in every respect” in 1999, before changing his views, had his commitment to the anti-abortion cause questioned during the presidential campaign. A group of anti-abortion leaders even wrote a letter during the Republican primaries urging people to vote for “anyone but Trump.” Now, though, anti-abortion groups say they are more confident in his commitment to their cause. “We're very confident,” said Mallory Quigley, communications director for the anti-abortion group Susan B. Anthony List. “He really proved himself.”

I'm not entirely sure how Trump can be said to have "proved himself" when he hasn't even taken office yet. His cabinet and high-level staff positions are certainly turning out to be more conservative than one might have expected given Trump's decidedly non-ideological pedigree. But it's one thing to have willing people in place. It's another thing to actually to win policy victories.

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Under Tom Price, Trump's HHS could decide Planned Parenthood is no longer eligible to receive the money

To the extent the items mentioned above are possible by executive action, it's only because Obama so roundly abused that power during his presidency to make the scourge of abortion worse. Reversing the use of foreign aid funds for abortion is something that should happen, of course, but that only gets us back to the pre-Obama status quo. Not forcing religious organizations to pay for contraception is a welcome change, but that too is only the reversal of a very recent development. As for Planned Parenthood, the mechanics of it are a little complicated, which might actually help Trump to accomplish the goal if he wants to. There is no specific congressional appropriation described as "funding for Planned Parenthood." Congress approves funds for family planning assistance and the Department of Health and Human Services decides which organizations are eligible for the funds. The Obama Administration - like others before it - has clung to the fiction that no federal aid dollars are ever used by Planned Parenthood to pay for abortions, but rather for other services, as if money isn't fungible and help in one budget area doesn't affect what is possible in others. Under Tom Price, Trump's HHS could decide Planned Parenthood is no longer eligible to receive the money. If that happens, expect the left to have a very public conniption fit complete with stories about how Planned Parenthood provides cheap contraception and all kinds of other services that poor women can't get anywhere else. A lot of this isn't true - like the left's narrative last year about how Planned Parenthood provides mammograms (it doesn't) - but the public will believe it in large part if the media doesn't correct the disinformation. And for the most part, they won't. Still, if Trump wants to pick this fight, he can probably win it at least in the short term. Denial of federal funding for Planned Parenthood should certainly happen, and it would be a major pro-life victory. But actually allowing states to outright ban the practice is going to require at least two new Supreme Court Justices. Trump's appointment of Antonin Scalia's success would make one, but he will still have to have the chance to replace one of the Court's liberals in order for Roe to be in any jeopardy whatsoever. And that's assuming Chief Justice Roberts wouldn't be as susceptible to the "legacy" pressure that a lot of people think inspired his decision to temporarily save ObamaCare. Of course, given the right political scenario - which we will have in 23 days - ObamaCare can be taken down legislatively. The same can't be said for Roe, no matter how much Trump now believes it should happen.

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