I agree with the economists who have grown increasingly skeptical about the data China publishes, and the recent revisions open a new episode in the debate over its energy use and greenhouse gas emissions
Beijing issued its first ever red alert for smog on December 7 urging schools to close and invoking restrictions on factories and traffic that will keep half of the city's vehicles off the road. The red alert, the most serious warning on a four-tier system adapted a little over two years ago, means authorities had forecast more than three consecutive days of severe smog. (1)
Readings of PM2.5 particles climbed toward 300 micrograms per cubic meter and were expected to continue rising before the air begins to improve with the arrival of a cold front. The World Health Organization designates the safe level for the tiny, poisonous particles at 25.
It's the second time this month that notoriously polluted Beijing has experienced a prolonged bout of smog, sending PM2.5 levels in the suburbs as high as 976 micrograms. Beijing was also shrouded in persistent smog for most of November when power demand soared due to unusually cold weather.
Most of the pollution is blamed on coal-fired power plants along with vehicle emissions and construction and factory work. China, the world's biggest carbon emitter, plans to upgrade coal power plants over the next five years to tackle the problem, and says its emissions will peak around 2030 before starting to decline. (1)
While emissions standards have been tightened and heavy investments made in solar, wind and other renewable energy, China still depends on coal for more than 60% of its power.
And speaking of coal, The New York Times reports that an astounding 155 planned coal-fired plants received a permit in China this year alone, with the total capacity of nearly 40 percent that of operational coal power plants in the United States. (2)
Some folks say that China's economic slowdown and the government's pledges to use more renewable and nuclear energy make some of the country's existing plants and most or all of the 155 new ones unnecessary. Will they be put on line is a question. However, utility contracts guarantee that coal-fired plants operate a minimum number of hours to sell power to the grid, while renewable sources have no such guarantee. Wind power capacity has been growing in China, but so has the amount of wasted wind power called curtailment. In the first half of 2015, the rate of curtailment was 15 percent, almost twice that of the same period in 2014. (2)
A complicating factor is that China burns more coal than has been reported; up to 19 percent more coal a year than the government previously disclosed. Even for a country of China's size, the scale of correction is immense. The sharp upward revision in official figures means that China has released much more carbon dioxide—almost a billion more tons a year according to initial calculations—than previously estimated. (3)
The increase alone is greater than the whole German economy emits annually from fossil fuels.
The new figures add about 600 million tons to China's coal consumption in 2012—an amount equivalent to more than 70 percent of the total coal used annually by the United States.
The data pose a challenge for scientists who are trying to reduce China's smog, which often bathes whole regions in acrid, unhealthy haze.
So when I read a recent report that China's 'dramatic' rise in renewable energy use has helped cause global greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels to slow for the first time in nearly 15 years and could show a modest decline when final numbers are in for 2015, I am skeptical. (4)
I agree with the economists who have grown increasingly skeptical about the data China publishes, and the recent revisions open a new episode in the debate over its energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. (3)
Jack Dini
Livermore, CA
References
1. “Beijing issues its first red alert for smog, the highest warning possible,” Associated Press, December 7, 2015
2. Edward Wong, “A glut of coal-fired plants raises doubt about China's energy priorities,' The New York Times, November 11, 2015
3. “China burns much more coal than reported, complicating climate talks,” The New York Times, November 3, 2015
4. David Perlman, “Report finds slowing in carbon emissions,” San Francisco Chronicle, December 9, 2015
Jack Dini is author of Challenging Environmental Mythology. He has also written for American Council on Science and Health, Environment & Climate News, and Hawaii Reporter.
