By Dr. Roslyn Kunin, BC Business Columnist, Troy Media
Just as the sun rises in the East, there are those in western Canada who have historically looked to the provinces of ‘Inner Canada’ – Ontario and Quebec – to generate the well-being of the West.
Times have changed; Canada’s economic sun is now rising in the West.
Two recent data releases point in this direction. The first was the July labour force survey results from Statistics Canada. From June to July this year, there was a net decrease of about 9,000 jobs in Canada: a decline of 139,000 full-time jobs and a rise of 130,000 part-time jobs of 130,000. (Statistics Canada has not yet explained how this dramatic shift from full-time to part-time work is compatible with the hours of work numbers, which have been increasing).
In the West, employment actually grew. In British Columbia, employment grew by more than 16,000 jobs in July. B.C. did experience the shift from full-time to part-time work, but every loss of a full-time job was compensated by the creation of about three part-time positions.
Alberta, B.C. lead the way
Alberta saw almost 9,000 net new jobs and also experienced the shift to part-time work, with 1 ½ part-time jobs replacing every full-time job lost. Saskatchewan and Manitoba, along with Atlantic Canada, saw little change in their job numbers.
The big job losses were in central Canada. Quebec lost a net of 21,000 jobs in July: 66,000 full-time jobs gone and 45,000 part-time positions created. Ontario lost 30,000 full-time jobs, and gained 15,000 part time posts, leaving 15,000 fewer people at work than in June.
The West can attribute its growth largely to strong markets for its resources and related processing and manufacturing. In B.C. alone, there were 9,000 new manufacturing jobs. Service employment also grew, especially services related to resource and goods production, such as transportation and warehousing. Strong markets for the three Fs –food, fuel and fertilizer – also supported growth in the West. Construction, meanwhile, is experiencing steady if not spectacular growth.
Building on construction
The construction industry leads us to the second indicator of the rise of the West. This is a list compiled by a group of real estate investors through their organization, the Real Estate Investment Network. REIN ranks the top 10 Canadian urban areas in which to invest in real estate. Population growth, job growth and infrastructure development were among the factors that REIN considered. Here is the list:
1. Calgary, Alberta
2. Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge, Ontario
3. Edmonton, Alberta
4. Surrey, British Columbia
5. Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadow, British Columbia
6. Hamilton, Ontario
7. St. Albert, Alberta
8. Barrie-Orillia, Ontario
9. Red Deer Alberta
10. Winnipeg, Manitoba
Seven out of these top 10 areas are in the West as are four out of the top five. Ontario appears only three times, while Atlantic Canada and Quebec do not make the list at all.
This does not mean that there are no areas in these provinces that will do well. Nor does it mean that these are the only places in the West and Ontario that will grow. But, when the REIN investors are looking for places to put their money for the best possible gain, they will be looking first to the West.
They will not be noticing the setting sun. They see rising opportunities.
Dr. Roslyn Kunin is director of the BC office of the Canada West Foundation.
Dr. Roslyn Kunin is director of the BC office of the Canada West Foundation.
