The terrible situation caused by the coronavirus shutdowns across the world has led to an interesting experiment in air quality. What happens to the environment here and abroad when worldwide transportation and industrial production drop off significantly? Reading the news, the improvements seem to be significant. However, a closer look at data show how transportation and industrial production reductions don't move the needle nearly as much in the already-safe American environment as they do in other countries with much more polluted air. 1
No country on earth has done more to reduce CO2 emissions than the United States
No country on earth has done more to reduce CO2 emissions than the United States. Its emission have declined big-time since 2005 while others' grew. 2
Between 2005 and 2018, global CO2 emissions from energy grew by 20 percent (5748 million metric tons).
Declines in CO2 emissions between 2005 and 2018 were led by the United States (-12 percent and 706 million metric tons). Annual CO2 emissions in the United States declined 8 times during this period.
The largest increase in carbon dioxide emissions between 2005 and 2018 came from China (55 percent and 3329 million metric tons).
The next highest increment came from India where emissions rose by 106 percent (1275 million metric tons).
Together, China and India accounted for 80 percent (4604 million metric tons) of the increase in global carbon emissions (5748 million metric tons). Further, China is planning to build another 300 coal fired power plants that will produce the equivalent of all the col fired power plants in the 28 nation European Union. 3
A study shows that particulate matter levels in Los Angeles and New York were a mere 6-8 micrograms per cubic meter in 2019, one-tenth of New Delhi's levels and close to natural levels from dust. The declines from 2019 to 2020 in New York and Los Angeles due to the shutdowns are barely noticeable within the context of normal year to year variation, unlike the visibly apparent difference in heavily polluted places such as New Delhi. 1
Los Angeles has seen levels for all pollutants drop by at least half over the past 50 years. 4
Recent changes up or down are mere blips in comparison to the overall trend. The entire United States has been on a descending trend of improving air quality, with aggregate emissions down 74% since 1970.
NASA has also joined the bandwagon, posting satellite photos of the drop in nitrogen dioxide pollution over the Northeast. Levels were down more than 30% in March compared to their five year average. But the actual data reveal a steep decline for New York in early February, followed by no noticeable decline after the shutdown took hold in March. 5
It is also likely that the early shutdowns in China, which were documented to improve Asian air quality at the beginning of the year dramatically helped improve air quality in Southern California before shutdowns took hold in the US. Studies have found that a large amount of air pollution in the Western US is transported from East Asia, so this window of time may end up being a compelling case study about that phenomena. 6
Ozone
Air quality data during the COVID-19 lockdown for the last third of March in Philadelphia showed ozone falling by 2.5%. By comparison, computer models used by the EPA to set national air quality standards project ozone levels should have fallen up to four times more during the lockdown.
If additional data confirm that naturally produced ozone levels are substantially higher than EPA models, it means no amount of regulation will likely result in urban areas meeting the current EPA ozone standard of 70 parts per billion (ppb) over three years.
David Stevenson reports, “This means the continuation of a futile, economy killing regulation. The US should return to a 75 ppb standard.” 7
In the meantime, be wary about the headlines implying that our environment is unsafe when our economy is not shut down, and remember that the US is an unqualified success story in improving air quality while expanding our economy and energy use.
The conclusion: air quality is very good pretty much everywhere in the United States. This fact stands in stark contrast to utterly absurd claims in the media such as blaming air pollution for killing 155,000 Americans. 8
Why is there such a disconnect between reality and what the media say? Because bad news is intrinsically more interesting than good news.
Don't let the media fool you. If you're an American, Australian, Canadian or Scandinavian, air pollution should be among the least of your concerns. 9
Supporting this statement, here's some interesting words from Joanne Nova about climate change “Climate change is the luxury fear people wear on their sleeves when they can afford it. It's a piece of fashion. Optional and discarded at a moments notice. A Harris Poll conducted last December had Americans voting climate change as the number one issue facing society. Today is comes in second to last on a list of a dozen options, ahead of only over population. Among Gen X men, in fact, more than a third dismiss climate change as unimportant. COVID-19 and the recession have, of course, reordered priorities around the world.” (10)
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References
Mike Nasi, “Shutdowns show how clean our air already is,” washingtonexaminer.com, June 5, 2020-
“CO2 emissions have declined here more than anywhere,” Institute for Energy Research, April 21, 2020
Chriss Street, “China adding new coal power plants equivalent to entire European Union capacity,” theepochtimes.com, December 29, 2019
David D. Parrish et al., “Air quality improvement in Los Angeles—perspectives for developing cities,” Environ. Sci. Eng., 2016, 10(5):11)
Peter Jacobs, “NASA satellite data show 30 percent drop in air pollution over northeast US,” nasa.gov, April 9, 2020
Meiyun Lin et al., “US surface ozone trends and extremes from 1980 to 2014: quantifying the roles of rising Asian emissions, domestic controls, wildfires, and climate,” Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 2943, 2017
David Stevenson, “COVID-19 lockdowns impact on ozone pollution,” caesarrodney.org, June 18, 2020
Alexandria Sifferlin, “Here's how many people die from pollution around the world,” time.com, October 19, 2017
Alex Berezow, “American air is clean and getting cleaner,” acsh.org, August 14, 2018
Joanna Nova, “A fickle faith: climate change concerns evaporate in US polls,” joannenova.com.au, August 14, 2020
Jack Dini is author of Challenging Environmental Mythology. He has also written for American Council on Science and Health, Environment & Climate News, and Hawaii Reporter.
