Climate Computer Models Lacking in Accuracy

In the 60 years before 2010, China was reported to have warmed by 0.79 plus or minus 0.10. However, a recent report reveals that China could have experienced a real warming of only 0.46 plus or minus 0.13 C. Nicola Scafetta and colleagues compared what the top greenhouse models driven by CO2 predicted. And , lo the models were totally wrong. ¹ Somehow the combined might and supercomputers at NOAA, NASA, Hadley and the Bureau of Met experts all missed this. ²

"Is there a more perfect nation to study the urban heat island (UHI) effect than China?"

So what is an urban heat island? An urban heat island (UHI) is an urban area of metropolitan area that is significantly warmer than its surrounding rural areas due to human activities. The temperature difference is usually larger at night than during the day, and is most apparent when winds are weak. UHI is most noticeable during the summer and winter. The main cause of the urban heat island effect is from the modification of land surfaces. Waste heat generated by energy usage is a secondary contributor. As a population center grows, it tends to expand its area and increase its average temperature. The term heat island is also used; the term can be used to refer to any area that is relatively hotter than the surrounding, but generally refers to human-disturbed ares. ³ Joanne Nova asks, "Is there a more perfect nation to study the urban heat island (UHI) effect than China?" The world's most populous nation has made a blistering transformation in two decades. As recently as 1995 the population was 75% rural. Now it's approaching 60% urban. Shenzhen, which is near Hong Kong, grew from 3,000 people in 1950 to more than 10 million in 2010. Around Beijing, thousands of towns have been built in a networked carpet, each a mere 2 km apart. The stations in these areas are effectively not rural anymore. ² Prof. Nicola Scafetta and colleagues wondered how this massive growth affected the temperatures. They discovered that regions that warmed the fastest were also the largest population centers. Proving the warming might be 'man-made' but nearly half the warming is due to heated concrete and all the assorted infrastructure and industry around thermometers. That part is not CO2. ¹

---

Researchers found that mankind is simply not having much of an effect on the Earth's temperature

An earlier paper by others concluded that half of the global warming trend from 1980 to 2002 was caused by urban heat island. ⁴ A recent study conducted by a Finnish research team concluded that current climate models fail to take into account the effects of cloud coverage on global temperatures, causing them to overestimate the impact of human-generated greenhouse gases, providing little evidence to support the idea of man-made climate change. The results of the study were soon corroborated by researchers in Japan. ⁵ Models used by official bodies such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) "cannot compute correctly the natural component included in the observed global temperature," the study said, adding that "a strong negative feedback of the clouds is missing" in the models. Adjusting for the cloud coverage factor and accounting for greenhouse gas emissions, the researchers found that mankind is simply not having much of an effect on the Earth's temperature.

---

Support Canada Free Press

---

The top 23 global coupled climate models don't understand the climate and can't predict it

Given the evidence presented in the study, the Finnish team rounded out the paper by concluding "we have practically no anthropogenic climate change," adding that "low clouds control mainly the global temperature."⁵ These results sharply cut against claims put forward by many environmentalists, including lawmakers such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who argue not only that climate change is an immediate threat to the planet, but that it is largely a man-made phenomenon. Ocasio-Cortez, better known as AOC, has proposed a 'Green New Deal' to address the supposedly dire threat. John Christy's new study study demonstrates climate models consistently overstate the warming effect of increasing carbon dioxide concentrations on climate. ⁶ Researchers have long known there were significant discrepancies between the projections of climate models, based on assumptions about the effect of man made emissions of greenhouse gases on global temperatures when compared to actual climatological observations, yet modelers and those who rely on them have not acted to correct the problems with the models, observes Bonner Cohen. Christy writes that the models are warming too fast. In the early 1990s, most climate modelers developed models projecting a 0.35 degree Celsius rise in temperature. Using satellite readings available since 1979 Christy and colleague Dick McNider projected the amount of carbon dioxide being added to the atmosphere should cause the Earth to warm, on average by about 0.09 degrees Celsius per decade. That's about one-quarter of the level projected by prevailing models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and government agencies such as NASA. He concludes, "The warming trend we found suggests that we are having a relatively minor impact on global temperatures." ⁷

---

These scientists 'live by scaring the public'

Joanne Nova reports, "The top 23 global coupled climate models don't understand the climate and can't predict it. Our CO2 emissions are accelerating, the effect should be amplifying, but millions of weather balloons and satellites that circle the Earth 24 hours a day show unequivocally that the models are wrong.' ⁸ At the recent (July 25) 13th International Conference on Climate Change, Roy Spencer showed climate modelers build incorrect assumptions into their models, which then produce false results suggesting humans will cause dangerous climate change. ⁹ He said, "Climate models are what proposed energy policy changes are based upon, but they produce twice as much warming as is actually measured by global satellites and the average of four reanalyses. Lastly, 'living legend' Princeton physicist Freeman Dyson has harsh critical words for climate science and the models they rely on. He calls the science of climate modeling a 'very dangerous game.' He adds, "When you work with a computer model for years and years and years, always improving the model, in the end you end up believing it. It's very difficult to remain objective." ¹⁰ On why we should not trust the models, Dyson days 'because they're wrong. It's very simple, they're wrong." He adds that although the models are 'very good tools for understanding climate', they are a 'very bad tool for predicting climate,' and that these scientists 'live by scaring the public'.

---

---

References

1. Nicola Scafetta et al., "Detection of UHI bases in China climate network using Tmin and Tmax surface temperature divergence," Global and Planetary Change, Volume 181, October 2019
2. Joanne Nova, "China is warming fastest where the cities are, not where predicted-classic UHI," joannenova.com.au, July 24, 2019
3. "Urban Heat islands," en.m.wikipedia.org August 9, 2019
4. Ross M. Mckitrick and Patrick J. Michaels, "Quantifying the influence of anthropogenic surface processes and inhomogeneities on gridded global climate data," Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, December 2007
5. J. Kauppinen and P. Malmi, "No experimental evidence for the significant anthropogenic climate change," arxiv.org, June 29, 2019
6. John Christy, "The tropical skies: falsifying climate alarm," Global Warming Policy Forum, May 23, 2019
7. Bonner R. Cohen, "Climate models overstate temperature impact of carbon dioxide, study confirms," Environment & Climate News, July 2019
8. Joanne Nova, "Climate models are a joke," jonannenova.com.au, November 14, 2018
9. H. Sterling Burnett,, "Speakers at climate conference flood Washington, DC with facts," Environment & Climate News, August 2019
10. P. Gosselin, "Renowned physicist Freeman Dyson: 'theories of climate are very confused,' models are wrong," notrickszone.com, November 16, 2018