Coal On The Rise In Spite of Death Warnings

President Biden said recently that "we're going to be shutting coal plants down all across America having wind and solar."

Obituaries for coal have been announced ad nauseam, most recently at last year's UN climate change COP26 summit in Edinburgh. Yet there has been an eight fold price surge in coal since September 2020 to over $430 per ton two years later from prices that ranged between $50-$150 a ton through the past decade. This was led by a resurgence of demand after the pandemic lockdowns--especially in China and India, the worlds two largest coal consumers accounting for two-thirds of the world total--but also in Japan, South Korea, Europe and the US. ⁽¹⁾

Except for a few tiny nations, the rest of the world may be giving lip service to coal's coming funeral. But in the real world, global power generation from coal rose nine percent in 2021 and many Asian nations are increasing their reliance on the tried and true provider of heat and electricity. ⁽²⁾

China

China last year approved the largest expansion of coal fired power plants since 2015 despite its vow to begin phasing down use of the fossil fuel in just three years. The coal power capacity that China began building in 2022 was six times as much as that in the rest of the world combined. ⁽³⁾

China is approving a new plant every three and a half days. ⁽⁴⁾

China's coal industry accounts for nearly a fifth of the world's emissions, a greater volume of greenhouse pollution than every car, train, ship and aircraft in the world. ⁽⁵⁾

The Hunutlu Thermal Power Plant, the largest china invested coal fired power plant in Turkey, is now fully operational after construction started in September 2019. The modern power plant will be managed and operated by Chinese enterprises. The plant received a direct investment of $1.7 billion from Chinese companies. More than 90 percent of the plant's power generation equipment was manufactured in China. ⁽⁶⁾

So the West is demolishing coal plants, and hoping to use batteries and pumped hydro for back up power, but China is using coal, and if it accidentally finds out that coal is cheaper than coal plus wind they can just keep running the back up plants. ⁽³⁾

It seems that the more Biden, Kerry and the Net Zero crowd attack King Coal, the more they get stuck in its clutches. ⁽²⁾

India

Nationwide fossil fuels generate more than 70% of India's electricity and have been doing so for decades. Coal is by far the largest share of dirty fuels. Renewable energy currently contributes about 10% of India's electricity needs. ⁽⁷⁾

From 2001 to 2021, India installed 168 gigawatts of coal fired generation, nearly double what it added in solar and wind power combined. India's federal power ministry estimates that its electricity demand will grow up to 6% every year for the next decade.

Europe

While the juggernaut of Asian coal demand will roll on for a few more decades at least, coal's comeback is even more remarkable in Europe. This is the same Green Europe that boasted of its dismantling of coal and nuclear power plants while imposing financial embargoes on multi-lateral development agencies such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund for fossil fuel development in developing countries.

At the end of June, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's coalition gave the green light to restart 27 coal fired power plants until March 2024. That is quite a turnaround for a country that shunned all fossil fuels or the last three decades, shutting down its nuclear plants after the Fukushima incident as well as its coal and natural gas plants for their high carbon footprints.

As Germany continues to move ahead and shut down its nuclear power plants, leaders are realizing that coal as an energy source for electricity is unavoidable and without alternative. As a result,, the share of coal fired power plants in electricity generation has risen to 33 percent. ⁽⁸⁾

In the EU, Austria, France, Italy and the Netherlands have announced plans to extend or restart coal power plants to survive winter.

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The end of France's coal era seemed so certain last year that the operative of one of the country's last coal burning plants posted an upbeat educational video on YouTube entitled "Let's visit a coal plant that's going to be destroyed!" The plant indeed halted coal production but not for long. In early December workers were back at the controls and refiring furnaces as part of emergency efforts to keep the heat and electricity on this winter. ⁽⁹⁾

Demands for brown coal, the cheapest and most energy inefficient form used by Czech households, jumped by almost 35% in the first nine months of 2022 over a year ago. ⁽¹⁰⁾

Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas fired plants in the coming years.

Pakistan's plan to switch to coal to provide its citizens reliable electricity underscores challenges in drafting effective decarbonization strategies, at a time when some developing countries are struggling to keep lights on. ⁽¹¹⁾

Final Words

At the end of last year, overall fossil fuels represented 81% of energy consumption. Ten years ago, they were at 82%. So $3.8 trillion of investment in renewables moved fossil fuels from 82% to 81% of the overall energy consumption. It is apparent that renewable energy is not going anywhere fast.

The reality is green energy is anything but green. No one wants to discuss the brutal conditions under which cobalt and other rare minerals are extracted to build solar panels and EV batteries, or that electric vehicles need up to six times more minerals than conventional cars. And let's not even discuss the untold thousands of birds literally incinerated by solar facilities. ⁽¹²⁾

Wind is not better. Turbine blades must be replaced every 10 to 20 years and since there's currently no way to recycle them, they're simply buried in a landfill like a mass grave. These monsters also have a devastating impact on wildlife; off-shore wind farms are killing whales, and endless numbers of birds--especially hawks and eagles--are being butchered by the mounted turbines.

Nor is wind or solar power cheaper than fossil fuels. Right now, the industry is being massively subsidized by governments. Remove those subsidies and see how much consumers are willing to pay for their green energy.

What enthusiasts don't realize (or wont admit) is how different life would be without the ease and convenience of fossil fuels. Right now, federal policies are targeting 80% renewable power by 2030, and 100% by 2035--goals that are being termed suicidal for America's power grid.

The inevitable result of this push against fossil fuels will be a drastic drop in living standards for first world and third world nations alike. While the more hard core green energy enthusiasts may applaud, these people have no concept of what life without energy would be like. ⁽¹²⁾

References

1. Tilak Doshi, "King Coal: Reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated (apologies to Mark Twain)", forbes.com, December 1, 2022

2. Duggan Flanakin, "Coal demand growing as intermittent, unreliable green energy flops," principia-scietific.com, February 24, 2023

3. Poornima Weerasekara, "China ramps up coal plant approvals despite emissions pledge," Phys Org.

4. Joanne Nova, "China approves two new coal plants every week to ensure stability when renewables fail," joannenova.com.au, February 28, 2023

5. David Fickling, "China's coal mining boom is running on fumes," bloomberg.com, February 20, 2023

6. Global Times, "Largest China invested coal fired power plant in Turkey now operational," globaltimes.cn, October 18, 2022

7. Sibi Arasu and Mary Katherine Wildeman, "Clean energy gains a foothold in India, but coal still rules," apnews.com, January 22, 2023

8. P. Gosselin, "Surprise: Coal became most important energy source for electricity in Germany in 2022," notrickszone.com, March 14, 2023

9. Jean-Francois Badias, "Necessary evil: France refires coal plant amid energy woes," apnews.com, November 30, 2022

10. Karel Janicek, "High energy prices led to coal revival in Czech Republic," apnews.com, November 17, 2022

11. Reuters, "Pakistan plans to quadruple domestic coal fired power away from gas," energyworld.com, February 14, 2023

12. Patrice Lewis, "The deadly reality of eliminating fossil fuels," wnd.com, February 10, 2023

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