The World Bank computers did not forecast the Global Financial Crisis.
The British Met computers failed to forecast Europe’s frigid winter.
Computers have proved unable forecast the spread of swine flu or volcanic ash clouds.
The Australian Weather Bureau cannot forecast next month’s weather.
Yet we are asked to believe that the IPCC computers are able to forecast global temperature, sea levels, hurricanes, droughts and diseases for a century ahead. They promise that, if we just stop using coal and oil, everything will be rosy.
That is like betting our jobs, our industry and our food supply on a roll of the dice in the casino.
There are about 20 Global Circulation Models using variable assumptions that claim to represent climate processes.
Every one uses suspect data, disputed processes and is tweaked to reflect the biases of the builder.
Not one has yet made a correct forecast. Moreover, no two forecasts agree.
But we hope one gets it right soon so we can scrap the other 19 and so save a lot of money.
Until then, all IPCC forecasts should be written in pencil.
And we should ignore them.
Viv Forbes, Chairman, The Carbon Sense Coalition, has spent his life working in exploration, mining, farming, infrastructure, financial analysis and political commentary. He has worked for government departments, private companies and now works as a private contractor and farmer.
Viv has also been a guest writer for the Asian Wall Street Journal, Business Queensland and mining newspapers. He was awarded the “Australian Adam Smith Award for Services to the Free Society” in 1988, and has written widely on political, technical and economic subjects.
