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Three reasons why global surface temperatures will probably see continued cooling over the coming year: La Nina, Soot and haze of smoke from Forest Fires, Sunspot Activity

Cooling Planet?

By Jack Dini ——--August 24, 2021

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Cooling Planet?Hot temperatures qualify as climate and these days we hear a lot about 'record breaking' temperatures. When was the last time you saw 'coldest ever' in a headline? In spite of all the scare stories about a warming Earth, there are indications that perhaps folks should be more concerned about cooler weather. Climate scientist Dr. Willie Soon says that global cooling is a far greater source of concern than global warming. Humanity can solve a lot of problems including overheating, but the problem of a 'little ice age' like that of the 1700s, 'those problems are much harder to solve,' he said.1

Cooling trends have been reported world-wide

ince the last day of 2001,  CO2 has risen from 372 to 419 ppm. However, there have been two cooling periods of 12 years (2002-2014) and 7.5 years (2014-2021), separated by a 1.5 year El Nino induced warming event (2015-2016). Temperature changes that proceed in step-or event-like fashion do not seem to correlate well with linearly rising CO2 concentrations. 2 Cooling trends have been reported world-wide. Japan Japan winters are not warming. Over the past 32 years, Japan's mean winter temperatures have cooled modestly despite the past 4 of 5 winters having been mild. It appears that global warming left Japan decades ago. The mean July 2021 temperature for the rural volcanic island of Hachijojima, in the middle of the ocean some 287 kilometers south of Tokyo shows there has been no July warming in close to 100 years. 3 China NE China has cooled 2-3 C since the mid-1800s, with more extensive drought conditions in the 1930s than in recent decades. 4 A recent study suggests the modern (1994-2004) surface temperatures in the South China Sea are colder now than any time in the last 6,000 years. Except for a brief interval ~500 years ago, sea surface temperature seasonalities have been consistently 2 to 4 C warmer than today since the middle Holocene in the South China Sea. 5 Antarctica From 1979-2018 East Antarctic cooled -0.70 C/decade (-2.8 C), West Antarctica cooled -0.42 C/decade (-1.68 C) but the Antarctic Peninsula warmed 0.18 C/decade (0.72 C). Thus as a whole, the Antarctic continent has cooled about -1.5 C to -2 C during the same period CO2 rose from 337 to 410 ppm. 6
Southern Hemisphere In August 2021 intense Antarctic cold raced through South America causing widespread frost with snow observed all the way into southern Brazil. Reports Scott Duncan, "There have been numerous cold shocks across the southern hemisphere this winter so far. This is the biggest and most intense winter for sure. Getting down 10-15 C colder than average at times." 7 Europe The previous three hot and dry European summers of 2018, 2019 and 2020 led 'experts' to declare this was all the new normal for the future—unless we surrender our freedom to regulatory masterminds. But no sooner was the ink of that declaration dry, did the weather turn and deliver just the opposite this summer. Across much of Europe it's been wet and cool. The warnings of permanent summer droughts have evaporated, reports P. Gosselin. 8 Australia Australia was warmer around 1880-1920 than now. In 2020 spring snow fell in Ballarat and even part of South Australia, and regional NSW. In many places, Australians were reported to be confused, mistaking white stuff for blossoms and other things. Snow blanketed central Victoria as Ballarat recorded the coldest September day in more than 50 years. The snow was thick enough for some to start skiing amid an unusual cold snap at the end of September. 9 India In December 2020 Delhi, India's capital recorded its second coldest December in 118 years. Africa South Africa was warmer in the 1940s. England Parts of the River Thames in London froze in 2020 following subzero temperatures across the UK. The last time this happened was in 1963.

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Netherlands The Netherlands shivered at minus 20 C. New York In 2018, New York City experienced the coldest Thanksgiving in 100 years. 10 Future Predictions Here are three reasons from Pierre Gosselin why global surface temperatures will probably see continued cooling over the coming year.
  1. La Nina back in the forecast- NASA continues to project La Nina conditions into 2022, thus suggesting vigorous globally time-shifted cooling conditions.
  2. Soot filtering out sunlight over North America- Another factor that could act to cool the earth's surface a bit over the short term are the massive wildfires in California and elsewhere this summer. Satellite images show a sun-blocking haze of smoke spreading over large parts of North America.
  3. Low sunspot activity- The previous solar sunspot cycle was one of low activity, and recent sunspot activity has been very low, in fact, the sun currently has no spots. 11

References

  1. "Climate scientist warns next 20-30 years will be cold," newsbinding.com, July 21, 2021
  2. Kenneth Richard, "The HadCRUT4 global temperature data set now unveils a cooling trend for the last 7.5 years," notrickszone.com, July 19, 2021
  3. P. Gosselin, 'Tokyo sees no July warming in 3 decades...Hachijojima no July warming in almost 100 years," notrickszone.com, August 1, 2021
  4. Kenneth Richard, "Evidence surfaces that northeast China was 2-3 C warmer than today during the mid 1800s," notrickszone.com, March 8, 2021
  5. P. Zhou et al., "Sea surface temperature seasonality in the northern South China Sea during the middle Holocene derived from high resolution Sr/Ca ratios of Tridacna shells," Quaternary Research, June 16, 2021
  6. J. Zhu et al., "A assessment of ERA5 reanalysis for Antarctic near- surface air temperature," Atmosphere, 2021, 12(2), 217
  7. Joanne Nova, "Jet streams playing havoc—bringing snow to Brazil," joannenova.com.au,August 1, 2021
  8. P. Gosselin, "Skipping summer, fall-like weather sweeps across Europe, super-cooled Europe—snow forecast," notrickszone.com, July 31, 2021
  9. Joanne Nova, "Global warming causes snow in SA, Victoria, and NSW and 'coldest day for 50 years," joannenova.com.au, September 25, 2020
  10. "Media's crafty coverage of cold weather," principia-scientific.com, March 8, 2021
  11. P. Gosselin, "Cooling in the pipeline? Low solar activity, wild fire smoke, La Nina all setting up a cooled 2022?, notrickszone.com, August 8, 2021
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Jack Dini——

Jack Dini is author of Challenging Environmental Mythology.  He has also written for American Council on Science and Health, Environment & Climate News, and Hawaii Reporter.

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