Cruz leads Trump by 5; Bernie leads Hillary by 8 as Wisconsin goes to the polls

You go into Wisconsin in second place, but you win there and you come out on top. I could have told you that back in January. Perhaps Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders are getting advice from Mike Zimmer. (Or they’re turning to Adrian Peterson for help with their “ground game,” if I can use a dopey political pundit phrase.) Going into today’s Wisconsin primary, a new poll from Emerson College shows Cruz leading Trump by 5 points, with Sanders leading Hillary by 8. The queen hasn’t quite sold the subjects on the coronation.

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The interesting thing on the Republican side is that Cruz leads by a much wider margin with Republican voters. It’s only when you include independents in the mix that Trump remains somewhat competitive:

With a favorable/unfavorable rating of 43% to 53%, Trump continues to struggle with likely GOP primary voters. Cruz, with a 58% to 38% rating, and Kasich (69% to 24%) are viewed much more favorably. Cruz enjoys a 7-point lead over Trump among men, 43% to 36%, with Kasich at 16%. Cruz holds a 3-point edge among women, 35% to 32%, with Kasich at 28%. The poll suggests that among those voting in the GOP primary, 57% will be Republicans and 37% Independents. Cruz leads Trump 46% to 31% among GOP voters, with 17% going for Kasich. Independents break for Trump over Cruz, 37% to 34%, with Kasich at 28%.

I think in the case of Trump voters, we're not only talking about "independents," but in many cases we're talking about people who are not typically that engaged in the political process. They're not so much regular Republican primary voters who thought it through and chose Trump over Cruz and Kasich. They're people showing up to vote specifically because of Trump. The Republican regulars seems to be breaking for Cruz pretty decisively.

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Wisconsin awards 15 winner-take-all statewide delegates, and another three for the winner of each of the state's eight congressional districts. Polls show Cruz leading in five of the eight, so if all the current poll results hold, Cruz would come out of Wisconsin with 30 of the state's 39 delegates. It doesn't make that big a dent in Trump's lead, but it does complicate Trump's path to 1,237 - and I'm more convinced by the day that if Trump doesn't get the nomination on the first ballot when delegates are pledged to him, he's never going to go get it. Whatever his total on the first ballot, that will be the best he ever does. Meanwhile, lest you think the Democrat side favors Bernie because Madison and other left-wing bastions make it a socialist outlier, you should know that Hillary was leading there by a six points a mere 12 days ago. She's sinking like a stone:

Both Sanders and Clinton hold very high favorable ratings among likely Democratic voters, with Sanders at 83% and Clinton at 70%. The poll suggests that the open primary will consist of 68% registered Democrats and 28% Independents. Clinton leads Sanders 50% to 45% with Democrats but trails him by 30 points (62% to 32%) among Independents. Early voters also favor Sanders 52% to 38%. Since the March 23 ECPS poll, Sanders has gained ground with all age groups except those 75 and older. His lead among voters ages 18-34 is now 68% to 22%. He is ahead of Clinton 57% to 38% among those 35-54, and outpolls her 54% to 43% in the 55-74 age group, which leaned heavily her way in the last ECPS poll. Clinton maintains her strongest edge with those over 75, 72% to 21%. Sanders has also extended his lead among men, improving from a 51% to 43% advantage in the March poll to a commanding 59% to 36% edge today. He has also closed the gender gap among women and only trails Clinton by three points, 48% to 45%. Furthermore, he has solidified his support across the state, trailing only in the Fourth Congressional District. As of March 23, the districts were evenly split between the candidates, 4 to 4.

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You've got a somewhat similar phenomenon on the Democrat side in that the party regulars seems to prefer Hillary while independents are hugely for Bernie, but the difference I think is that the party regulars are on board with Hillary because they think she's the only viable choice, not because they're excited about her. The Bernie people are wildly enthusiastic, if only because they really don't understand what happens when you actually try socialism. But if Hillary was hoping to close the deal with grassroots voters, she's failing spectacularly. They don't like her, they don't trust her and they don't want her. I never thought I'd see the day when I had so much akin with wild-eyed left-wingers. But maybe I shouldn't be surprised. Liberal true believers are wrong and exceedingly naive, but by definition they're genuine, and usually genuine people can spot a phony a mile away. That would explain why they are so repulsed by Hillary. She's surely not one of us, but she's really not one of them either. She's a liberal, yes, but that takes second place to her agenda of doing whatever benefits Hillary Clinton. And she will sell out absolutely anyone in the service of that agenda. Good thing for Hillary the Democrat race is largely rigged in her favor. Too bad for Trump he can't say the same. Her likely loss in Wisconsin is going to look bad for her, but it's not going to stop her from winning the nomination because she controls almost all of the superdelegates. On the Republican side, the very thing that could cost Trump the nomination is the fact that he loses control of his delegates after the first ballot - and losing states like Wisconsin could be the very thing that keeps him from taking the prize on that first ballot. We've never seen a year quite like this.

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