December Coffee Price Alert

This is about coffee, so I know I have everyone’s attention now.

For several weeks I’ve been hearing about coming spikes in coffee prices. There are a couple of reasons, but mostly it’s partial crop failures in a few areas. When the word goes out that there is a supply problem, other producers will often go ahead and raise prices because they know people expect it. It’s a kind of hedging the bet that demand will remain strong.

Prices are a signal to producers and consumers. When the price goes up producers will consider increasing production if it looks like prices will stay high. Likewise, if wholesale prices go down, it’s an indication that they may consider reducing output because profit margins may be affected. When prices go up, consumers may lay in extra supplies to get them through and they may consider other products, too. When prices go down, consumers enjoy plenty of the product and perhaps cut back on other products which have become less attractive by comparison.

Smart consumers watch price trends on products they use and act accordingly. You are still with me, dear reader, so I know that you are one of these smart consumers.

I went to the local supermarket just a bit ago. I’m a tea drinker, but my wife is a coffee drinker. Every time I go to the supermarket I check things that she likes and I check things that I like. Today I had a shock. The coffee she likes had gone up by 50% over the past three days, when I checked it last. What has recently been $11.99 was $18.98 today. I took a photo just to be sure of what I saw.

Just a week ago the regular price was a startlingly high $11.99. That’s higher than a couple of months ago. Then today I wasn’t ready for this kind of blast off.

In fairness I don’t usually buy coffee at this store. Because it’s the store I visit most often, I check it regularly as an indicator. There are several other places to check. I make my own blend of half-caff for our domestic use. This means I keep decaf ground coffee on hand along with a regular caffeinated ground coffee. I mix these half and half to give us the caffeine level we want. Usually the best decaf price is at a mega grocery chain I don’t really like, so I go there now and then for just a few things I can’t get elsewhere. Coffee gets checked each and every time I’m in there. For a while the bigger plastic cartons of Maxwell House regular coffee were cheapest at the mega discount chain we all know, but the store nearest me quit carrying it. There are dollar stores and there is the German discount grocery store in a nearby town. I keep an eye on all of these places. Sometimes they will have coffee at a ridiculous price, and that’s when I grab it. Even the big lumber/home centers have grocery sections now, and they really drop prices sometimes, but it takes constant vigilance.

All of this is to say that if you really like your coffee, it might pay to do some bargain hunting soon. Because prices may take a big hike soon, all the places that stock coffee will not go up at the same time. There is product in the supply line already, but don’t depend on that to put off some shopping. They can raise the price instantly when they decide to do it.

There are alternatives to coffee. There’s Pero and other coffee substitutes. Look for these in very large supermarkets and in Asian or Middle Eastern international markets. Having always been a sugar and milk coffee drinker back in the day, I still like sugar and milk in coffee substitutes. I think Pero is terrific. It has no caffeine and warms me inside on a cold day. Years ago there was Postum from the Post cereal people, but they quit making it quite a long time ago. Someone brought it back, but it’s hard to find and pretty expensive. I can tell little difference between Pero and the old Postum.

In the 1970s when coffee prices jumped I decided to look into alternatives. I took an interest in British tea brands and taste tested several Twinings teas. It’s a good idea to search for the tea you like, not what someone says you should like. I like malty black tea and I keep my favorite brands on hand. English, Scottish, and Irish breakfast teas often have the robust flavor and the malty finish I enjoy. Teas from Assam in India have long been a favorite, but some recent discoveries from Kenya are very good, too. Among the best of these is Lifeboat tea (not pictured but hiding in the Williamson elephant tin on the left). The Kericho Gold tea on the left is a new favorite, also from Kenya. Breakfast teas usually take milk and sugar to make what I call English style tea. Other teas like Darjeelings and most Assams stand alone. Try different kinds and choose favorites.

I love loose tea because the flavor is often a little different from tea bags of the same brand. Tea bags are usually made with fines so they brew really fast and will often make a second brew from the same teabag. Loose teas often have larger pieces of the tea leaves. You’ll need a teapot and a strainer to enjoy these, and they will sometimes brew twice or even three times if the brew time is brief. Tea bags are easier to clean up but they don’t leave tea leaves to read in the bottom of a cup.

Get out there and do some coffee bargain hunting, but if coffee prices go beyond your reach, consider tea and coffee substitutes. You might find new favorites you will want to stay with in the future. Now let’s have a proper brew!