As our society reemerges from financial shock and waves of bankruptcy, we hope for a leaner economy, a better tax structure, and a new set of entrepreneurs
Dread Corona-Virus Aftermath Will Spark Economic Evolution
In 1347, ships returning from unknown ports landed in Sicily, despite most passengers laying prostrate, dying or dead, horrid sores openly oozing bodily fluids. This arrival heralded the Black Plague to Medieval Europe, felling 25 million. A pandemic slaying perhaps 90% of the infected, as 60 million Chinese perished. The global scale of Black Plague mortality translates to 1.9 billion dead today, writes John Kelly in The Great Mortality.
Yet, not every historic tragedy causes permanent human decline. Some ancient disasters presaged reform and growth, such as England's 14th Century plague creating a more efficient economy. Today, despite US government warning of possible 30% unemployment with -24% growth, a growth spike will ultimately result from our current travails via Coronavirus (COVID-19).
Some ancient disasters presaged reform and growth, such as England's 14th Century plague
According to History Guide, The Black Death rampaged through Europe between 1347--1351, finally landing in England. Deaths were so frequent an immediate labor shortage resulted. Remaining English laborers responded by demanding higher wages. The landed classes demanded government act. A chief response was passage of the Statute of Labourers by Edward III in 1351, pushing back against price and wage spikes.
The English Statute of Laborers of 1351 sparked growth after crops rotted in fields. Parliament ruled all unemployed must accept work, even in distant towns. Those under 60 refusing could be arrested, placed in stocks, jailed, tortured or even facially branded. This law helped foreclose the medieval period by forcing serfs off the land, auguring a new economy to end the "Dark Ages".
The text of the Statute of Laborers is here in a few edited excerpts:
Because a great part of the people and especially of the workmen and servants died in that pestilence, seeing the scarcity of servants won't serve unless they receive excessive wages, and others prefer to beg in idleness…
...we have seen fit to ordain: every man and woman of our kingdom of England, of whatever condition, whether bond or free, able bodied and below the age of sixty years be sought after to serve in a suitable service, he shall be bound to serve him who has seen fit so to seek after him; and he shall take only the wages or salary which were accustomed to be paid in the twentieth year of our reign of England…
...and if any man or woman, being thus sought after in service, will not do this he shall be taken and sent to the next jail, and there he shall remain in strict custody...
Black Death and Transformation of the West
It's estimated half the population perished. How did such catastrophic loss result in an economic boom? Wages for serfs and peasants skyrocketed. Inflation afterward helped spark the Peasant's Revolt of 1381, which was crushed, but the feudal system was finally broken.
David Herlihy, in Black Death and Transformation of the West, called this plague "the great watershed," writing that a more diversified economy resulted, a more efficient use of capital, boasting more powerful technology. This occurred after surviving the plague's initial shock while adapting to the problem of diminished population.
One medieval technology was the printing press. As scribes became more costly, the printing press produced literary works on economy of scale. Printable books revolutionized the world of ideas. The Renaissance itself was child of the Black Plague.
Society adapted to survive the Black Plague, writes Palmer in English Law in the Age of the Black Death, 1348–1381 A Transformation of Governance and Law. Chiefly, England adapted government and law to insure survival of human society -- just as we observe during our current crisis.
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Ten guesses for coming plague-driven change
Here are ten guesses for coming plague-driven change:
A robot cohort is being conceived to aid all sectors of US, blotting out virus risk;
Loan and bankruptcy laws amended to adapt better to disaster, with govt. aid;
Online businesses skyrocket and grow wildly, especially medicine;
Medicine thrives in new private/govt. duo, delivering more & better for less;
Globalism rejected as countries repatriate essential manufacturing;
Airlines, and many other irreplaceable sectors semi-nationalized;
Tele-work/ tele-study continue unabated growth. A majority of colleges close;
Major professional sports leagues devastated: insolvent/ restructured or closed;
Globe punishing China brings economic and social disgrace, threatens war;
Spirituality swells as revival sweeps globe while services move online;
After this pandemic recedes, medicine will achieve better delivery at cheaper cost than all previous legislation delivered. As our society reemerges from financial shock and waves of bankruptcy, we hope for a leaner economy, a better tax structure, and a new set of entrepreneurs ready to re-conquer American and global markets.
A less debt-addled society with grateful survivors regains footing as the core elements of happiness and spiritual growth reassert themselves for human flourishing.
Kelly O’Connell is an author and attorney. He was born on the West Coast, raised in Las Vegas, and matriculated from the University of Oregon. After laboring for the Reformed Church in Galway, Ireland, he returned to America and attended law school in Virginia, where he earned a JD and a Master’s degree in Government. He spent a stint working as a researcher and writer of academic articles at a Miami law school, focusing on ancient law and society. He has also been employed as a university Speech & Debate professor. He then returned West and worked as an assistant district attorney. Kelly is now is a private practitioner with a small law practice in New Mexico.
In 1347, ships returning from unknown ports landed in Sicily, despite most passengers laying prostrate, dying or dead, horrid sores openly oozing bodily fluids. This arrival heralded the Black Plague to Medieval Europe, felling 25 million. A pandemic slaying perhaps 90% of the infected, as 60 million Chinese perished. The global scale of Black Plague mortality translates to 1.9 billion dead today, writes John Kelly in The Great Mortality.
Yet, not every historic tragedy causes permanent human decline. Some ancient disasters presaged reform and growth, such as England's 14th Century plague creating a more efficient economy. Today, despite US government warning of possible 30% unemployment with -24% growth, a growth spike will ultimately result from our current travails via Coronavirus (COVID-19).
