Failure To Face The Truth About Ukraine Has Been The Problem From The Beginning

Most Americans have now seen the sad episode, or at least video clips, of President Zelensky’s visit to the White House. During the first half hour of the discussion between Zelensky and President Trump, the conversation was cordial and uneventful. President Zelensky came to the White House to sign the rare Earth mineral agreement between the US and Ukraine meant to create a fund to rebuild Ukraine after the war, pay America back for assistance, and deter Russian aggression after a ceasefire due to US interests in Ukraine.

The predictions about the War in Ukraine were wrong at every turn

During the exchange, Vice President JD Vance mentioned diplomacy as the way to end the war. Zelensky abruptly shot back at Vance “what kind of diplomacy, JD, are you speaking about?” before running down the Russians. Vance cut him off, saying “I’m talking about the kind of diplomacy that’s going to end the destruction of your country…. Mr. President, Mr. President, with respect, I think it’s disrespectful for you to come to the Oval Office to try to litigate this in front of the American media.” (The Hill, Feb. 28, 2025)

The problem we face is years of false predictions by senior military and civilian “elite” who know better.

The predictions about the War in Ukraine were wrong at every turn. Just before the invasion in February 2022, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Gen. Mark Milley, predicted Kyiv would fall to the Russians within “72 hours” (Fox News, Feb. 5, 2022)

That caused American officials to encourage Zelensky to leave his country immediately after the invasion. Early on, the Russians attempted to encircle Kyiv to bring about a collapse in Zelensky’s government, but the Ukrainians stood firm and forced a Russian withdrawal from Kyiv. Starting in March, Ukrainian and Russian negotiators met in Istanbul to attempt to come to a peace, and were about to sign a peace deal, the Istanbul Communique.

Ridiculous & Insane Predictions

Unfortunately, that effort was scuttled by NATO elites as described in Foreign Affairs: “So instead of embracing the Istanbul communiqué and the subsequent diplomatic process, the West ramped up military aid to Kyiv and increased the pressure on Russia, including through an ever-tightening sanctions regime. The United Kingdom took the lead with British PM Boris Johnson coming out with a hard line, saying on March 30 that, ‘we should continue to intensify sanctions with a rolling program until every single one of [Putin’s] troops is out of Ukraine,’ before he arrived in Kyiv on April 9.’ He told Zelenskiy any deal, ‘would be some victory for [Putin]: if you give him anything, he’ll just keep it, bank it, and then prepare for his next assault.” (Foreign Affairs, March-April, 2025)

After the ridiculous predictions of immediate Ukrainian collapse, elites went the other direction after April 2022 with opposite insane predictions. Several military and civilian leaders predicted a quick Ukrainian victory. Former US European Command Commander, Lt. General (ret) Ben Hodges, told the world in 2022 that “within months” it was “inevitable” Ukraine would expel every Russian from Ukraine “if” properly supported. (BBC, Nov. 6, 20220)

The Biden administration continuously predicted Ukrainian success in pushing for further billions in aid. Former National Security Advisor, LTG (ret) HR McMaster, claimed in 2022 the Russian Army was experiencing a “moral collapse” (CBS News Youtube, 2023)

LTG Hodges came back in 2023 with the prediction that if Ukraine were aided it could “seize Crimea” from Russia. (Economist, Jan. 29, 2023)

He and other elites made wild predictions about the vaulted Ukrainian “counteroffensive” of 2023. The counteroffensive made few gains. From 2023 Russia has been making substantial territorial gains in Ukraine and controls over 20% of Ukraine’s landmass (Foreign Policy, Aug. 28, 2024)

In this war of attrition Russia is exponentially bigger in size, population, resources and wealth 

The tide finally turned on the predictions due to the unavoidable reality. For example, in August 2024 Foreign Policy Magazine, which generally hates Trump, published Harvard Professor Stephen M. Walt’s more realistic analysis: “the United States and Europe should continue supporting Ukraine, but this support should be coupled to a serious and unsentimental effort to negotiate a cease-fire and eventual settlement.

Unfortunately, U.S. officials seem to have forgotten how one gets even close allies to agree to a cease-fire, even when those states are dependent on U.S. backing and when a cease-fire is clearly in America’s interest.” (Foreign Policy)

Advice to the new President: Find a way to get parties to a cease fire because Ukraine will only continue to lose men and territory while depleting the stocks of the US and Europe. In this war of attrition Russia is exponentially bigger in size, population, resources and wealth and that truth is decisive over time.

The effort to negotiate a ceasefire must be “serious and unsentimental”. The United States must negotiate with Russia. Vance was right about the need for diplomacy and Zelensky needs to accept it. Trump was right in that Zelensky needs a cease fire to save his country.

The years of elite gaslighting about Ukraine (like the predictions from elites about success being “right around the corner” in Afghanistan) is over. Like the “noble lies” elites told during COVID, false predictions about Ukraine have clouded the truth.

It’s time truth and common sense to prevail so we can pursue American and Ukrainian interest of peace in a war-torn land.