Given the Endorsement What Must Trump Do Now?

America’s two-party political system makes it difficult for candidates from outside the Republican and Democratic parties to win presidential elections. Since 1920, in fact, only four third-party candidates—Robert La Follette in 1924, Strom Thurmond in 1948, George Wallace in 1968 and John Hospers in 1972—have been able to win even a single electoral vote.

That doesn’t mean, however, that third-party candidates haven’t altered the outcomes of presidential elections over the course of American history. The question for us today is will a third-party candidate by the name of, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., alter the outcome of 2024’s election for Republican, Donald Trump? And what will that look like?

In July NBC News reported the existence of a leaked call between Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

“Robert F. Kennedy Jr. apologized this morning after his son posted a video on X showing a call between Kennedy and Trump. Bobby Kennedy III wrote in his post that the call took place Sunday, the day after the assassination attempt on Trump. In the video, Trump can be heard talking about children’s vaccines and the gunshot he experienced at the Pennsylvania rally Saturday.”

Part of what makes the video notable (besides the fact that the left hates it) was the apparent suggestion that Trump and Kennedy are on the same page politically. “I would love you to do something,” The former president is reported to have said. “And I think it’ll be so good for you and so big for you. And we’re going to win.”

Kennedy apparently agreed, replying, “Yeah.”

This did not sound like an exchange between opposing parties, vying for the same office. Rather, one gets the impression of a friendly, easy give-and-take -- one which should dispel further credibility to the left's chatter about Kennedy playing the role of election spoiler.

The question that should be addressed is:

Will RFKJr’s exit actually benefit the former president and how much?

Surveys are clear that most of Trump's third-party defectors have been picking Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on test ballots where there are more choices.

Polls show that a Kennedy withdrawal would benefit Trump. And even if it turns out that the numbers are not substantial (and no one knows for certain) small margins have ended up deciding recent presidential elections.

One truth that is clear from the national NBC News poll is that Republicans have a stronger preference for Kennedy than Democrats. In July, Kennedy held net-positive ratings from Republicans (+11), while he was negative among independents (-18) and Democrats (-38). Republican voters clearly view RFKJr. more positively.

Moreover, Kennedy attracts almost all of Trump’s third-party defectors

July’s national NBC News poll also shows how the ballot changes from one with just the two major nominees to an expanded ballot that includes Kennedy.

When third-party candidates are included in polls, Trump’s lead grows to 3 points, 40% to 37%, with Kennedy getting 10%, Jill Stein (Green Party) 3%, Chase Olive (Libertarian) 2% and Cornel West 1%.

In that six-way ballot, Trump kept 87% of the voters who backed him in a head-to-head contest, while 10% of his voters went to Kennedy, 1% went to Stein and 1% went to West.

Other polls since then have shown a similar trend, with Kennedy drawing in more voters who said they would pick Trump over Harris on a two-way ballot.

Over the past 72 hours in America, things have changed in the landscape of national politics. Kamala Harris's odds of winning the 2024 presidential election have seen a reversal among leading bookmakers.

Perhaps the most important disclosure came August 10th when Polymarket, often described as the "world's biggest prediction market," forecast that Harris would receive 52 percent of the presidential election vote against the former president’s 45 percent.

As of 5 a.m. ET on August 21, Trump had regained the lead, with 52 percent of support versus Harris's 47 percent.

A crucial ingredient in the electoral mix mentioned above is the Independent vote. The latter play a major role in these numbers. Their numbers have continued to rise, tying a high of 43% last year, according to a Gallup telephone survey. (Democrats and Republicans by contrast each reflect only a 27% constituency.)

With such numbers involved, the undecided figure can amount to enough votes to make a difference in a close race as in 2022 and what appears to be shaping up in 2024.

From the results above, it still looks like two factors are in play. Harris's star has started to diminish the more America (and Americans) learn who she actually is and what that would mean for them personally and America generally, and with RFKJr on board, Trump's chances are enhanced measurably.

But the real issue or concern if you will, is twofold: Can Trump use RFKJr effectively, and will Trump tone down the hyperbole and rhetoric so as to appeal to not only RFKJr’s supporters (whose interests are not necessarily those of Trump's), but that significant contingent of as yet undecided independent voters?

If Trump's numbers continue to edge upwards or stabilize (with the advent of RFKJr) the election in November is, perhaps at this point, Trump's to lose – as was the case after the assassination attempt and before Biden withdrew from the race.

I say it this way, because a nationally televised debate and subsequent election is approaching. And Trump and his team (including RFKJr) need a demeanor in speech and public persona that is inviting to RFKJr ‘s supporters and those undecided independents. (The ones Oprah Winfrey is in overdrive attempting to “hard sell” into Harris's camp.)

This writer, (whose background is, admittedly, in philosophy not politics), would offer these suggestions to Mr. Trump and his newly expanded team.

We all (and this includes Donald Trump) need to understand that irrespective of how we may feel about Harris, she is not (contrary to Trump's rhetoric) “dumb.” To the contrary, she has already demonstrated an agile ability to have a national appeal, to articulate her views cogently and without hesitation. (Up until just recently, she was leading in the polls – though partially through DNC and media hyperbole.

Her handlers know how important perception, the optics, can be -- aesthetically and psychologically – portraying her in a positive, pleasing light. One can readily see this in her attention to apparel – towards a more “presidential” appearance.

Americans are going to only hear and see what they are shown through the lens of the media. Trump needs to present a countervailing force and image of stability and confidence (not arrogance). In other words, he must remain calm and responsive, not agitated and reactive. With those optics, Trump will prevail. Many people want to vote for him because of the practical, American common sense he espouses (whether they admit it publicly in polls or not). The American public (which includes Republican and Independent voters) demonstrated that in 2016 and 2022.

Let us hope (and pray) Trump and his advisors (including RFKJr and his team) are savvy enough to understand this. Eight years is a long time to endure damage to America and Americans at the hands of modern liberal nonsense from two people who should never be allowed anywhere near Pennsylvania Avenue and certainly not at this address – 1600.