WASHINGTON, D.C. — President Barack Obama’s and his Democrats’ loss in Tuesday’s congressional elections is Canada’s gain. This may be heresy from Halifax to Vancouver — with white-hot flashpoints in Ottawa and Toronto — but it happens to be reality.
Canada’s national interest in the United States is primarily commercial, and it fares better when Republicans are in the saddle on Capitol Hill. This is an overall assessment and does not overlook the Democrats who, for decades, have helped to keep the border open to business.
President Obama underscored his and the Democrats’ propensity to be soft-core America Firsters when he hinted of redoing or even scrapping NAFTA well before he could be sure of winning the White House.
Economic reality and sobering up to the consequences in Mexico and Canada have tempered his ambition and now, with Republicans slated to take the chairs of the committees in the House of Representatives, the NAFTA caper can safely be put aside.
The House Ways and Means Committee and its subcommittee on trade must approve any agreement on trade before the necessary legislation can be considered by the House of Representatives, let alone passed as law.
The House Energy and Commerce Committee holds equivalent power on all matters affecting Canada’s huge oil exports to the U.S. and the pipelines that bring it to American refineries.
The change here is more immediately telling. Committee chairman Henry Waxman, a Democrat from California, has spared no zeal and effort trying to stop "dirty" Alberta oil. He still wants to stop the building of the Keystone XL pipeline from Alberta to Gulf Coast refineries.
Estimated to cost $7 billion, the pipeline would double the U.S. capacity to import oil refined from Alberta’s oil sands.
"This pipeline," Mr. Waxman wrote to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, "is a multi-billion-dollar investment to expand our reliance on the dirtiest source of transportation fuel currently available."
Eleven senators, all Democrats, took another swing at the project, as vital to Canada as it is to the United States. Canada needs the money the oil brings to the country and the U.S. needs the security of supply. They, too, wrote to Mrs. Clinton, asking that she reverse her decision to certify the undertaking as essential to security
Such reasons seem to count for little with Democratic law-makers. Within hours of their crushing defeat, they reaffirmed their determination to stop the Alberta oil at the American border.
I think this post-election pledge has more to do with holding their political support of environmentalists in the next election, and the ones after that, than with any thought of getting anywhere. But that is fair enough in politics — down one day, up the next. That seems to be why the Democrats’ drive to ditch the Keystone XL will go on.
The final nod in close wins and losses may not come until all recounts, court challenges, decisions and appeals have run their course.
Canadians still working for the Big Three carmakers, too, can breathe a little easier. Ford, already roaring ahead in sales and profits, could well step up production in its Canadian plants. A warmer climate on Capitol Hill for trade would help an industry operationally as integrated as are American carmakers and their Canadian subsidiaries, both because of lower costs in Canada and lessened effectiveness of American unions as they push, understandably enough, for more jobs at home.
The aftermath of Tuesday’s Democratic disaster is already producing predictable "We were robbed" comments; and serious worry about the Tea Party boils down to "Will this dog wag the tail?"
I think it will, but only for a while. The Republicans’ ability to absorb and digest new input contrasts well with the Democrats’ tendency to fierce rival groups.
This was glaringly evident in Mr. Obama’s first two years, when he could have overcome the difficulties he encountered if he had the support of all Democrats in Congress. He had the majority in Congress and a deficit of loyalty among his troops. This is a historical habit.
Mr. Obama suffered a blow which is more likely than not to make him a one-term president. For Canada, and for any other country, that should not matter a whit. What Americans and everybody else need is sound government that knows its potential and its limitations.
Canada’s experience suggests that a Republican Congress is the better deal. It offers more stability in international trade, and that is Canada’s bread and butter.
Bogdan Kipling——
Bio and Archives
Bogdan Kipling is veteran Canadian journalist in Washington.
Originally posted to the U.S. capital in the early 1970s by Financial Times of Canada, he is now commenting on his eighth presidency of the United States and on international affairs.
Bogdan Kipling is a member of the House and Senate Press Galleries.
