While the media have been focusing on the damage from the oil spill to the Gulf waters and coastline, they have been ignoring what could be an issue of far greater consequence. This oil leak could be unstoppable and in fact could become much worse - according to rumors. How hard could it be to simply bolt a new valve to the wellhead flange then close the valve to seal off the well? Certainly not a permanent solution, but would stop the pollution of the Gulf until they are able to engineer a more permanent one.
If some little known rumors are correct, then there is much we are not being told and BP has not shut down the well because they cannot. It's not that it isn't technically possible, it's because capping that wellhead would rupture the well pipe and cause oil to flood out into the strata below the seafloor. Through erosion, the oil would erupt through the seabed creating a volcano like crater with an unimaginable and unstoppable amount of oil gushing out into the Gulf.
The methane gas explosion that destroyed the Deepwater Horizon rig occurred at the surface, but it was not until BP tried to plug up the well with their "top kill" and "junk shot" methods that they discovered that the well pipe was fractured. With 100,000 to 150,000 psi of pressure from the oil, any attempts to plug up the wellhead would result in oil spewing out of the ruptured well pipe casing and into the seafloor. At least that is what the rumors are saying.
But it gets worse. According to these sources, geologists have discovered a large gas bubble extending from 15 to 20 miles wide within the oil reservoir and just tens of feet from the well opening. It's only a matter of time before that bubble migrates to the well, and when that happens, the gas will literally explode up the well pipe, essentially destroying the wellhead, enlarging the borehole and creating the same catastrophe that would happen if BP were to cap the well. Gasses can be observed escaping from the wellhead in the
streaming videos from the ROVs.
In two of the rumors, they fear that if the gas erupts, the resulting bubble exploding to the surface would cause a tsunami, which would wash over the Gulf Coast for miles, washing over most of Florida, New Orleans, and other coastal communities. The resulting oil release would turn the Gulf into a dead sea. This is a worst-case scenario prediction, which also claims that because of erosion in the well pipe, it will likely happen within the next couple of months.
The "top hat" that BP is now using to capture and suck up as much of the oil as they can appears to be an almost perfect fit around the wellhead flange. It should not be that hard to seal it to the flange if that is what BP wanted to do, then capture all of the oil up the riser pipe. Apparently, BP must feel that restricting the oil to a six-inch riser pipe would still create too much back pressure for the 21 inch well pipe to handle, so they keep it loose to allow excess oil and pressure to bleed off into the Gulf waters.
This is why two new
relief wells are being drilled to intersect the primary well near the bottom of the well pipe. They then hope to pump heavy drilling mud into the pipe from the bottom until the weight of the mud balances the pressure of the oil, and stops it from flowing up the well pipe. Then they plan to pump cement into the pipe to permanently seal it. This assumes that the force of the oil does not just blow the mud up the pipe and out the wellhead.
If the rumors are true, then, according to the reports, a race is on between well pipe erosion and BP‘s relief wells. They could not predict who will win the race. One rumor claims that because of the explosion and resulting fracture of the down pipe, the wellhead is leaning over and will soon collapse due to its weight.
Complicating the effort is the expected hurricane season, which even conservative meteorologists are expecting to be heavy this year. If a major storm is headed for the recovery area of the Gulf, BP will have to stop operations five days before it arrives, recover their equipment from the seafloor, and get their ships to safe waters. The wellhead will be left wide open to the sea.
In response to the
first report, which was a guest comment by "Dougr" on The Oil Drum, a blog used by oil industry workers and professionals, the following was posted:
This is a guest post from Oil Drum commenter shelburn, who is a retired manager for an offshore underwater service company. Shelburn also wrote a previous guest post related to the oil spill. - Gail
In this post, I would like to respond to
a long comment made by DougR a few days ago, that has received a lot of publicity.
First, I will say that in one area we are in complete agreement. BP and the USCG have been less than forthcoming, and in doing so have hurt both themselves and the general public as all kinds of wild rumors and technical misinformation abound. Some of this misinformation results in harm to individuals and businesses as people suffer increased stress and tourists cancel vacations.
In this information vacuum, it is easy to make wrong assumptions that lead to mistaken conclusions. It can be made worse if you have some degree of technical knowledge and verbiage and use that to make a case for a scenario that doesn't pass muster with actual engineering analysis but sounds highly authoritative to many people, some TV commentators and various politicians.
I have to agree with Shelburne, and found some of the comments made by Dougr highly questionable. For example, when it is suggested that the oil reservoir will empty into the Gulf, the water pressure pushing down will then equalizes the oil pressure pushing up, and water will flood into the 500-degree reservoir causing a volcanic type eruption. This in turn will cause the seafloor to collapse into the reservoir.
Some of that may be true, but the seafloor collapsing into the reservoir? I don't think so. In Dougr's comments, this is the cause of the tsunami. I just cannot see a section four and a half miles thick of earth and rock suddenly shearing off and dropping without an 8.0 magnitude earthquake and a tectonic plate shift. I think Dougr has been watching too many underground nuclear tests at less than 1000 feet under the Nevada desert.
Another point that Dougr makes is that sand and rocks are eroding the inside of the down pipe and the weight of the pipe and wellhead pressing down on the damaged section of the pipe will cause the wellhead to fall over . Not likely, since a mile or more of earth and cement support the pipe it is not standing in free air as Doug's explanation suggests. Further, there is no evidence of, or reason for sand and rock to be coming up the pipe from the oil reservoir.
The second report comes from an interview with Richard Hoagland on
Brasscheck TV now posted in two segments on YouTube. Richard Hoagland claims to be a scientist who has been a long-term critic of secrecy and fraud at NASA.
According to
Richard C. Hoagland, insider sources in BP and in U.S. Government say that there is a Gas Bubble 15-20 Miles across 10+ feet high near BP's oil well head in Gulf of Mexico. It may cause an explosion with apocalyptic proportions in weeks or months. The pressure at the well is 100.000 PSI and when the Gas explodes, it will be like Mt. St. Helens going off underwater. It will create a Cloud of Death and a Tsunami Wave traveling at 400-600 MPH sinking all Vessels around the area as well as drive all hazardous materials including the Oil inland.
View the videos and make up your own mind to the credibility of this report, But also know that Richard C. Hoagland is known for his
fringe thinking, paranormal interests, and as a conspiracy theorists. He is a writer who is not known to have ever worked as a scientist. I don't know where he got his information, but it may have come from one of those glass bubbles on the moon.
Here are the videos, about 17 minutes total. An interesting theory from a conspiracy theorist.
Cloud of Death followed by Tsunami - Part 1
Cloud of Death followed by Tsunami - Part 2
Considering the sources of these rumored reports, I have to conclude that they are quite extreme and probably not very credible. Having said that, there still exists the possibility that the down pipe really has been damaged and could be a serious problem. That would explain why BP has not sealed the well, or sealed the top hat to the well, and would also explain why BP was, for two days, checking the vertical alignment of the wellhead with an inclinometer. That much I have seen for myself in the streaming videos from the ROVs.
It is also quite likely that a gas bubble does exist within the reservoir. Compressed gas is what creates the high pressure that forces the oil up the well pipe. Escaping gas can also be seen in the
streaming videos from the ROVs.
However, though the gas could erupt up the well pipe, it will not explode under water without oxygen and an ignition source. It very well could find them at the surface if the ships are still there. Otherwise, the gas cloud could be blown ashore and become deadly as it would hug the ground and displace the oxygen in the air. This sort of thing has happened before.
Former Shell Oil CEO John Hofmeister has confirmed that as a last resort, high explosives may be used to seal the well. Hofmeister also confirms that a small nuclear weapon is being considered but says he is not on board with that idea yet.
Explosives would be strategically placed below the seafloor and in close proximity to the borehole. In theory, the concussion and pressure from the blast would force earth and rock to crush the borehole and seal it. Hofmeister points out the danger of doing this as it has never been done before, and favorable results cannot be guaranteed. It could make the problem worse.
The report on The Oil Drum from Dougr is very informative and educational if you are curious about what has been going on at the seafloor with the ROVs. However, I wouldn't take his conclusions too seriously without further evidence. As with in any disaster, there are always going to be those who will spin stories that sound good but ultimately don't pass the smell test. Those that mix fact with fiction are usually the most convincing.
