It's impossible to win a fight when you're convinced even before it starts that you have no chance. John Boehner wanted this shutdown battle as much as he's ever wanted any other budget battle with President Obama and the Democrats, which is to say not at all, because Boehner believes from the outset that picking such a fight can result in nothing but disaster for Republicans. And he has made that a self-fulfilling prophecy.
But here is how Obama and Reid have complicated that:
By refusing to pass normal-order federal budgets that fund government operations for an entire year at a time - opting instead for continuing resolutions that last only a few months - Reid has set up a situation in which there is scarcely time for Republicans to assert their priorities in budgeting. Far from a normal situation in which the Congress passes a budget in the spring for the fiscal year starting in October, the next expiration of government spending authority is always just a few months away. So if the House asserts its priorities and refuses to sign off on the latest continuing resolution Reid hands them, we're always just weeks away from a government shutdown.
That's the second problem. You can say that House Republicans have an ace up their sleeves because the government can't function without their approval, but that assumes Democrats are motivated to keep the government operating and avoid a shutdown. They are not. Democrats don't mind government shutdowns at all, because they know a) since they control the White House they can pull all kinds of stunts (barricading war memorials, closing national parks, threatening denial of military death benefits) that create a political narrative they can turn against Republicans; and b) the media will always help them to establish the narrative that Republicans caused the problem.
What can Boehner do?
If he insists the Senate pass a real budget, Reid will refuse and dare Boehner to defy him, knowing that if Boehner does so, the result will be a shutdown whose political dynamics Democrats relish. If Boehner insists on major spending cuts, the same thing will happen. He can assert his policy priorities if he wants, but Democrats have no motivation to negotiate because they figure they can't lose no matter what happens. If Boehner caves and gives them the continuing resolution they want, Democrats win. If Boehner refuses, Democrats get to beat up the Republicans over a government shutdown, and in the end they'll get what they want anyway because Boehner fears the political consequences of standing firm.
Boehner thought he could deploy leverage by holding out on the debt ceiling increase Democrats need to continue their borrowing-and-spending spree, but the same dynamics applied. As he showed by allowing a bill to pass the House without conservative support, Boehner was bluffing, as Obama and Reid always suspected. He was never really going to let the government hit its borrowing limit, and as a result he was able to exact no policy conessions from Democrats in exchange for raising it.
The core problem is that Boehner does not believe he can win the messaging battle in these fights. As a result, he does not believe he can do the one thing he must do to prevail in these battles, which is to gain the unambiguous support of the American people. And that's a mistake. He can do that. But not in the way he's trying to do it.
Beltway Republicans have decided they can't really do anything to change policy until they win complete control of Congress and the White House. Consequently, they believe the only thing it makes sense to do in the minority is to protect the "Republican brand" to make themselves more viable in the next two election cycles. There are several problems with this thinking.
First, a party that won't fight with what limited power it has doesn't show the public it will make things happen if rewarded with more power. Republicans don't fight so much as they try to avoid criticism - from the Democrats, from the media, from the culture. They fear stepping out and advocating anything bold and difference-making, for fear they will get beaten up and branded as extremists. They justify this to themselves by insisting, once they ride this caution to electoral victory, look out.
This does not work. It has the effect of letting Obama and the Democrats run wild with their ideological agenda, while no Republican makes the case that their policies are hurting the country, nor that Republicans have anything viable to offer as an alternative. And by the way, in the event you do get elected on such a cautious platform, you will not have gained the consent of the governed to pursue your agenda. Granted, that doesn't stop the Democrats from shoving
their agenda down an unwilling nation's throats, but that's the difference between a party that will exploit power whenever it can vs. one that cowers in the corner for fear of criticism.
If Republicans want to win the messaging war, they need to start by a) recognizing who the enemy is; and b) recognizing how to take victory away from them.
There are three enemies: 1. The Democrats; 2. The mainstream media. 3. The culture. Obama, Reid and Pelosi push nonsense. The media celebrates the nonsense. Celebrities and activists attack critics of the nonsense. If Republicans really want to win the messaging war, they need to attack all three, relentlessly. I'm not talking about the lame approach of trying to win a given day's "24-hour news cycle," and I'm certainly not talking about Boehner's incessant whining that Obama won't work with him. That sort of crap is for losers, and it's also playing by the other side's rules.
Winning means declaring all-out war on all three, and not worrying that it will get you bad press, or that you'll alienate whoever. It means that constantly using the resources at your disposal - your own social media feeds, your own press people, conservative-leaning media like this site and others, your direct access to your constituents - to constantly and effectively hammer home the facts about what Obama's policies are doing to the nation. The slow growth. The rising debt. The high unemployment. The soaring insurance premiums. The missed energy opportunities. You have to show people in real, factual terms the trouble this is causing the nation.
And you have to recognize where the greatest opportuntiy is to soften up Democrats' support, and that's with the 20 percent of the electorate that calls itself independent. These people are not ideological, but they can be persuaded by facts. They will believe it if you prove with facts that Obama's policies are not working. They will be open if you show them Republicans have better ideas. But they also listen to the mainstream press, so you can't allow the press to enjoy unchallenged credibility it does not deserve.
Republicans need to declare all-out war on the mainstream media.
All-out war. Objective: Total decimation. You do not need to abuse your power in violation of their First Amendment rights, nor should you. You simply need to fight back against their lies and spin on a daily basis such that no one other than partisan Democrat hacks still believe the New York Times, the Associated Press or NBC News has an ounce of credibility. You should turn them into such a joke that dwindling readership forces them into bankruptcy. Victory is not a New York Times editorial that is a little more reasonable. Victory is the end of the New York Times. The New York Times is an enemy of the United States. It is time it was treated that way.
This is how you win the messaging war, and when you're winning the messaging war, Obama and Reid
will fear the government shutdown, because they will know the public not only opposes their agenda but is willing to see some unpleasantness if that's what's needed to stop it.
Republicans can win fights like this when the public is clamoring for them to have the fight, but that won't happen until they give up the defeatist notion that they can't win the messaging war. They just have to fight it differently. A good start would be to find different leaders, because this will never change as long as John Boehner and Mitch McConnell are the commanding generals. They do not fight to win.
A new edition of Dan's book "Powers and Principalities" is now available in hard copy and e-book editions. Follow all of Dan's work, including his series of Christian spiritual warfare novels, by liking his page on Facebook.
