With all due respect to the esteemed commentators at Fox News including Charles Krauthammer, Ann Coulter, and Bill O’Reilly, all of whom are unanimous in their support for Massachusetts flip-flopper Mitt Romney, barring some unforeseen event like an alien invasion or dogs learning to talk, Herman Cain will win the Republican nomination. The numbers are overwhelmingly in Cain’s favor. While Romney may have locked down around 30% of the Republican vote, giving him the lead for now, the not-Romney camp still controls 70% of the electorate. As the race develops into a two man contest, as all primaries do, the not-Romney candidate (Herman Cain) will have an almost unbeatable advantage.
Based on the Real Clear Politics averages from 10/17, a combination of the AP, CNN, Rasmussen, NBC/WSJ, Reuters, and PPP polls, Romney and Cain are tied at about 26%. It may look like the race is close, until you consider that the vast majority of supporters for Rick Perry (12.5%), Michelle Bachmann (4.8%) and Rick Santorum (1.6%) aren’t going to vote for the Massachusetts RINO in a million years, so you can count on almost all of them (18.9%) getting behind Cain once they drop out of the race. The same can be said of at least 75% of Newt Gingrich (9.2%) and Ron Paul (8.5%) supporters, giving Cain an additional 13% boost. Romney will pick up Jon Huntsman’s 2%, but he will still be left holding the short end of the stick with Cain leading 58% to 32%.
Cain is the frontrunner in most early primary states including Iowa, Florida, Nevada and Minnesota where voters are starting to base their decision on Romney vs. Cain, because nobody wants to waste their vote on a 2nd tier candidate who has no chance at winning. New Hampshire still heavily favors Romney, but they are hardly a bellwether state for the rest of the country.
According to an October NBC/WSJ poll, Cain leads Romney in voter enthusiasm 45% to 39%. Only 27% of Cain supporters still have “some reservations” about their candidate while 40% say the same about Romney. Then there is the question of momentum. While other flavors of the week like Donald Trump and Rick Perry have shot to the lead to only see their prospects fall faster than Keith Olbermann’s ratings, Cain has managed to steadily win over voters month after month.
There is a good reason why Romney has not been able to rise above 30% in the polls. Even with superior name recognition and a boatload of money, the majority of Republicans simply don’t trust him. He has changed his position on the most important issues of the day including global warming, taxes, abortion and government healthcare (good for Massachusetts, but not for the rest of the country???) so many times that he has positioned himself as the Barack Obama of the Republican Party -- a smooth talking politician willing to say or do anything to get elected.
In contrast Cain is a reliable conservative. He is opposed to growth in government, supports tax reform and believes in America’s unique role in the world. He has also committed to rolling back regulations and putting a muzzle on the EPA. Cain understands what businesses need to be successful and won’t be afraid to make the tough decisions required to fix the economy. He may be a bit light on foreign policy, but he believes in Israel and is critical of the Islamic Spring, which is good enough for me.
Cain-Ryan in 2012
As far as I am concerned the only question remaining isn’t whether Cain will win the nomination, but who he will choose for VP. Assuming that two-time loser Romney is out, it might be tempting to pick another top tier presidential candidate like Bachmann or Gingrich, but I have a better suggestion. How about Paul Ryan? He’s a trustworthy conservative, can tutor Cain on how things get done in Washington and would make a great presidential candidate in 2020. Ryan has also come out publicly in favor of Cain’s 9-9-9 plan, which makes me think he might be thinking about the VP nomination too.
A Cain-Ryan ticket would be the winning combination to take on Obama-Biden in 2012. The wise grandfather and the young whippersnapper with the right ideas on how to get America back to work. In an “it’s the economy stupid” election, how can they lose?
Fred Dardick got a BS in Biology at Boston University and MS in Biology at Stanford University before deciding that science bored him. He now runs a staffing company in Chicago where he is much happier now.
